December 29-31st 2 Clipper Potentials

[kab2791]

Nam shows bulk of precip from 15z to 00z so timing is not the best that's for sure, at least for this area.

[Hoosier]

Only hope is that the wave is quicker and precip falls more overnight, say between 3z--9z.

IMO the timing isn't that bad. It's basically a 9z-18z event with the bulk from about 12-16z around there which is basically 6-10 AM. NAM looks like there could be enough wetbulbing for sleet at onset but after that it becomes difficult to prevent rain.

[Thundersnow12]

That sounding actually doesn't look half bad, but then boundary layer warms

[Powerball]

Max temp in Detroit (northern suburbs are likely all snow) is 1*C.

Chicago is 2*C around 950mb.

FWIW...

The clown maps show a 2-4" or 3-5" swath of snow between I-94 and I-69 in Michigan.

[Powerball]

GFS just came in considerably stronger, and further north.

[dmc76]

...and warmer. Looks like a lot of slop Detroit south.

[kab2791]

BUFKIT shows snow to rain to snow for DTW for NAM as temps just above the surface warm during the mid to late afternoon before falling towards 00z.

[toronto blizzard]

BUFKIT shows snow to rain to snow for DTW for NAM as temps just above the surface warm during the mid to late afternoon before falling towards 00z.

What about YYZ kab?

[cyclone77]

RGEM shows freezing rain for northern Illinois for a time tomorrow night. No snow.

[Thundersnow12]

[baroclinic_instability]

Truly a thing of beuaty. That is a classic synoptic signature to a deep tropofold and a rapidly intensifying tropospheric deep cyclone.

[Chicago Storm]

0z ECMWF...

MSP:

 
FRI 12Z 30-DEC  -1.5    -2.2    1005	  87	  99    0.09	 538	 534   
FRI 18Z 30-DEC  -0.8    -3.7    1008	  84	  97    0.06	 539	 533   
SAT 00Z 31-DEC  -1.0    -4.3    1012	  85	  71    0.01	 544	 535

DSM:

 
FRI 06Z 30-DEC   6.0	 3.1	 999	  84	  98    0.09	 545	 545   
FRI 12Z 30-DEC   5.0	 0.0    1003	  87	  62    0.04	 540	 537

CID:

 
FRI 06Z 30-DEC   4.5	 3.2    1002	  88	  99    0.06	 546	 545   
FRI 12Z 30-DEC   4.5    -0.7	 998	  96	  99    0.10	 538	 540   
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   3.2    -2.4    1005	  86	  78    0.12	 540	 536   
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   3.1    -2.9    1011	  87	  86    0.01	 544	 535

DVN:

 
FRI 06Z 30-DEC   4.2	 3.1    1004	  87	  99    0.02	 548	 545   
FRI 12Z 30-DEC   4.8    -0.3	 998	  92	 100    0.05	 540	 541   
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   2.5    -2.6    1003	  93	  98    0.14	 539	 536   
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   2.5    -2.9    1011	  89	  94    0.02	 542	 534

LSE:

 
FRI 12Z 30-DEC  -0.7    -1.7    1003	  86	  99    0.11	 539	 536   
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   0.2    -3.1    1006	  80	  99    0.12	 538	 534   
SAT 00Z 31-DEC  -2.4    -3.0    1011	  84	  83    0.01	 543	 534

MSN:

 
FRI 12Z 30-DEC   0.3    -1.2    1002	  94	 100    0.12	 540	 538   
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   0.4    -2.8    1002	  95	  97    0.19	 538	 536   
SAT 00Z 31-DEC  -0.9    -3.5    1009	  87	  91    0.06	 541	 533

MKE:

 
FRI 12Z 30-DEC   1.5    -0.5    1004	  94	 100    0.06	 542	 539   
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   3.5    -1.7	 999	  97	  97    0.16	 537	 538   
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   0.9    -3.4    1007	  90	  95    0.10	 540	 534   
SAT 06Z 31-DEC  -1.1    -2.1    1012	  83	  28    0.01	 545	 535

SBM:

 
FRI 12Z 30-DEC  -0.2    -0.8    1005	  90	  96    0.01	 542	 538   
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   1.0    -2.7    1002	  94	  98    0.15	 538	 536   
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   0.6    -3.8    1007	  88	  93    0.08	 540	 534

PIA:

 
FRI 06Z 30-DEC   5.5	 5.0    1005	  79	  96    0.02	 551	 547   
FRI 12Z 30-DEC   5.6	 0.6    1001	  83	  82    0.03	 542	 542   
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   6.6    -2.5    1003	  79	  93    0.02	 539	 537   
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   5.4    -2.4    1010	  76	  96    0.02	 543	 534

ORD:

 
FRI 12Z 30-DEC   3.0	 1.4    1003	  92	  81    0.04	 543	 541   
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   5.5    -1.3	 998	  95	  97    0.09	 537	 539   
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   1.6    -3.3    1006	  95	  97    0.12	 540	 535   
SAT 06Z 31-DEC  -1.5    -1.9    1013	  87	  69    0.01	 547	 536

MDW:

 
FRI 12Z 30-DEC   3.7	 1.9    1003	  90	  81    0.04	 544	 542   
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   5.9    -1.5	 998	  93	  96    0.08	 537	 539   
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   2.0    -3.2    1006	  95	  97    0.13	 540	 535   
SAT 06Z 31-DEC  -0.4    -2.3    1013	  87	  72    0.02	 547	 536

VPZ:

 
FRI 12Z 30-DEC   3.7	 3.1    1004	  89	  88    0.02	 547	 543   
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   7.0    -1.3    1000	  87	  69    0.05	 538	 538   
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   2.6    -3.2    1005	  98	  97    0.11	 540	 536   
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   0.5    -3.5    1013	  91	  74    0.05	 546	 536

LAF:

 
FRI 12Z 30-DEC   5.7	 5.2    1005	  88	  69    0.03	 550	 546   
FRI 18Z 30-DEC  10.0    -0.5    1002	  65	  13    0.02	 539	 538   
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   4.6    -3.0    1007	  89	  98    0.07	 542	 536   
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   2.0    -2.5    1014	  89	  77    0.02	 547	 536

OKK:

 
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   9.4    -0.3    1003	  71	  13    0.03	 540	 538   
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   4.5    -3.5    1006	  92	  99    0.07	 541	 536   
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   1.7    -3.1    1013	  93	  84    0.05	 546	 536

FWA:

FRI 12Z 30-DEC   4.2	 3.0    1007	  86	  97    0.03	 550	 544   
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   8.0	 0.1    1003	  86	  49    0.06	 541	 539   
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   4.5    -3.5    1004	  91	  98    0.06	 539	 536   
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   2.0    -2.5    1010	  93	  87    0.05	 544	 536

IND:

 
FRI 12Z 30-DEC   5.5	 6.2    1007	  86	  68    0.02	 553	 547   
FRI 18Z 30-DEC  10.4	 0.7    1004	  70	  14    0.02	 543	 539   
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   7.8    -1.2    1008	  65	  89    0.03	 543	 537   
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   4.1    -2.5    1013	  81	  71    0.01	 547	 537

DAY:

 
FRI 12Z 30-DEC   4.6	 5.4    1010	  78	  89    0.01	 554	 545   
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   9.3	 1.5    1006	  79	  68    0.01	 548	 544   
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   7.0	 0.3    1007	  84	  78    0.07	 542	 537   
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   4.1    -3.2    1011	  83	  91    0.03	 545	 536   
SAT 12Z 31-DEC   1.8    -1.7    1018	  85	  50    0.01	 553	 539

CMH:

 
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   9.7	 2.4    1007	  72	  49    0.01	 551	 545   
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   7.9	 1.3    1007	  89	  67    0.08	 543	 537   
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   5.5    -3.2    1009	  83	  97    0.03	 543	 536

TDZ:

 
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   8.3	 0.9    1004	  74	  72    0.05	 545	 542   
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   6.3    -1.0    1004	  90	  87    0.07	 538	 535   
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   2.9    -2.5    1006	  96	  88    0.05	 540	 536   
SAT 12Z 31-DEC   2.2    -3.6    1014	  90	  72    0.01	 548	 537

CLE:

 
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   5.7	 4.3    1007	  82	  62    0.03	 549	 544   
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   6.9	 1.0    1005	  90	  40    0.10	 540	 536   
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   4.3    -3.7    1006	  92	  99    0.04	 539	 534   
SAT 12Z 31-DEC   2.9    -2.7    1013	  95	  69    0.05	 547	 536   
SAT 18Z 31-DEC   2.8    -2.2    1019	  79	  27    0.02	 554	 539

MKG:

 
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   3.7    -1.2    1001	  93	 100    0.12	 538	 538   
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   2.5    -1.8    1003	  96	  97    0.15	 538	 536   
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   1.8    -3.2    1010	  84	  74    0.02	 543	 535

BTL:

 
FRI 12Z 30-DEC   0.9	 0.9    1007	  94	  99    0.01	 547	 542   
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   5.6    -0.7    1001	  91	  88    0.06	 540	 538   
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   4.2    -2.5    1002	  96	  97    0.09	 537	 536   
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   1.4    -2.9    1008	  97	  83    0.04	 543	 536 

ADG:

 
FRI 12Z 30-DEC   1.3	 1.6    1008	  92	 100    0.01	 549	 542   
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   6.8    -0.2    1004	  82	  97    0.06	 543	 540   
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   5.4    -2.0    1003	  90	  97    0.06	 538	 535   
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   3.1    -1.9    1006	  96	  84    0.04	 541	 536   
SAT 12Z 31-DEC   1.0    -2.7    1015	  89	  39    0.01	 548	 537

DTW:

 
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   5.7	 0.4    1005	  86	  73    0.06	 545	 541   
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   5.4    -0.8    1003	  92	  84    0.07	 537	 535   
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   3.4    -2.4    1005	  95	  83    0.02	 540	 536   
SAT 12Z 31-DEC   1.5    -2.8    1013	  92	  56    0.01	 547	 536

PHN:

 
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   3.5    -0.2    1006	  92	  87    0.04	 545	 540   
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   4.7	 0.1    1003	  95	  41    0.08	 538	 535   
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   3.7    -2.0    1004	  96	  83    0.01	 538	 535   
SAT 12Z 31-DEC   1.8    -3.1    1012	  93	  69    0.01	 545	 535

YKF:

 
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   2.1    -1.4    1009	  91	 100    0.01	 547	 539   
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   2.0    -1.1    1007	  97	  97    0.11	 542	 537   
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   2.7    -0.6    1004	  98	  68    0.03	 537	 533   
SAT 12Z 31-DEC   2.7    -1.9    1007	  98	  79    0.01	 540	 534

YYZ:

 
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   3.5    -2.1    1010	  88	  85    0.01	 546	 538   
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   3.2    -1.0    1007	  94	  98    0.10	 543	 537   
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   3.4    -0.4    1004	  96	  55    0.06	 537	 534   
SAT 12Z 31-DEC   3.3    -2.2    1007	  96	  88    0.03	 539	 533 

[Thundersnow12]

some good eye candy

[Hoosier]

Euro seems to be on the slower side compared to other models.

[Geos]

Euro seems to be on the slower side compared to other models.

Slower and further north with the snow. See what the 6z runs bring.

[Harry]

Euro seems to be on the slower side compared to other models.

And it is the furthest north and by far the warmest. Took a nice jump to the north on this run. Guess we will have to wait and see what the ensembles say to see how much support it has. One thing going for that would be a stronger storm which the models are now starting to show. Guess we will see.

[wisconsinwx]

I just need the slightest south trend from either the Euro or GFS' 0z runs to feel good about an inch or two of the white stuff. As of now, it feels like deja vu again (stuck on the edge just missing out on the solid snow).

[turtlehurricane]

Based on upstream reports this clipper is likely to be terrible. We're gonna need some luck to even see a coating of ice.

There's not much precip to begin with, we'll basically get one shower of whatever it ends up being.

[wisconsinwx]

Based on upstream reports this clipper is likely to be terrible. We're gonna need some luck to even see a coating of ice.

There's not much precip to begin with, we'll basically get one shower of whatever it ends up being.

Considering the GFS has consistently been painting 0.05 or less inches of QPF, it is not surprising or disappointing. The second clipper tomorrow night into Friday might deliver the goods for Madtown, Milwaukee and points north.

[turtlehurricane]

Considering the GFS has consistently been painting 0.05 or less inches of QPF, it is not surprising or disappointing. The second clipper tomorrow night into Friday might deliver the goods for Madtown, Milwaukee and points north.

Yeah, that's the good news. It's still a shame we're having precip type issues on 12/29 though.

[Ajdos]

some good eye candy

BUT DTX changed my forecast: Sterling Heights

Overnight: Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 25. South wind around 7 mph.

Thursday: Snow showers likely after 9am, mixing with rain after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 36. South wind between 9 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Thursday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 35. Southwest wind between 8 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: Rain and snow. High near 40. Southwest wind between 4 and 7 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

DTX

WHILE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO OVERACHIEVE IN TERMS OF

PRECIPITATION AMOUNT, THE MILD AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE BOUNDARY

LAYER AND UP TO ABOUT 800 MB WILL PROVE TO BE THE MAIN LIMITING

FACTOR FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION. NOT ONLY WILL IT LEAD TO A CHANGE OVER

TO RAIN IN THE DETROIT AREA, IT WILL ALSO LEAD TO SINGLE DIGIT SNOW

RATIOS FOR POINTS NORTH, POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 5 TO 1 EVEN FOR NORTHERN

AREAS WHERE ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED. ALL OF THIS IS FACTORED INTO THE

SNOW ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE OHIO BORDER UP INTO

THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE FOR THE NORTHERN THUMB BY EVENING.

Dear god, we can pull better ratios in May... :./

[Ajdos]

Yeah, that's the good news. It's still a shame we're having precip type issues on 12/29 though.

Agree very much so!!! Sadly the truth..

[turtlehurricane]

Light coating of freezing rain in Madison. Wasn't trying to stay up for this, just sprang awake when I heard raindrops on the window.

[WestMichigan]

Chicago Storm, can you add GRR to your model output list?

[snowstormcanuck]

What about YYZ kab?

tomorrow is mostly/all liquid.

[SpartyOn]

Flint south get a mainly liquid event. Bufkit NAM would agree.

[dmc76]

Rain with a clipper on 12/30

[weatherpsycho]

Rain with a clipper on 12/30

Not enough cold air with a clipper ... OUCH!!

[snowstormcanuck]

Have some whispy -SN going on right now.

[dmc76]

Snowing pretty good here. Looks very winter outside. May actually hit an Inch today.

12 Miles south of me