dmc76 Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 I am very happy it stayed nearly all snow here today. ~1.5". At times there was very Large flake size which helped this clipper to over achieve a bit here. Now that the precip has moved out the temps are rising above freezing. If only tomorrows clipper could move ~50 miles south. Very nice event today really looked like winter....about 1.5"-1.7" today. Amazingly at 12.0" for the year. this time last year I was at 12.2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Both 18z runs of the NAM and GFS have went south. Both run the sfc low across I-80 in northern IL. I am at the office today...but this ejecting wave into NE is over-performing big time. Models are still in catch up mode. But the 18Z guidance is definitely catching an idea of how intense the undulation aloft is as this wave continues into the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Any chance we stay all snow here north of 59? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I am at the office today...but this ejecting wave into NE is over-performing big time. Models are still in catch up mode. But the 18Z guidance is definitely catching an idea of how intense the undulation aloft is as this wave continues into the Great Lakes. Do you think dynamic cooling will be a factor, especially on the north side of the band? It's weird, b/c despite the 18z GFS trending south, the 850 mb 0C line stagnated and seemed to hang north if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I guess this is yet another congrats to the Euro. For the last 2+ days the Euro has shown this system spinning up nicely over central Iowa with a deformation band dropping ~0.5" of precip. During that same period the NAM and GFS were mostly showing a weak disturbance skirting ne IA with <0.2". Suddenly, both have leaped into the Euro camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I guess this is yet another congrats to the Euro. For the last 2+ days the Euro has shown this system spinning up nicely over central Iowa with a deformation band dropping ~0.5" of precip. During that same period the NAM and GFS were mostly showing a weak disturbance skirting ne IA with <0.2". Suddenly, both have leaped into the Euro camp. I wouldn't say that. The last two days the GFS and especially the NAM were still indicating 0.25"+ of QPF in the middle of the band. In fact, the Euro, if anything, was stingier I thought a few days ago. That said, the track has waffled, but none of the major models were spot on with it consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 Any chance we stay all snow here north of 59? any chance will have to be well north of 26 Mile rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 In fact, the Euro, if anything, was stingier I thought a few days ago. That said, the track has waffled, but none of the major models were spot on with it consistently. incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 incorrect. Ok, prove it. The Euro has waffled between a further south solution (which looks like it is the more likely scenario to occur now) and a solution that confines the snow north of I-94, which still might happen. It's probably been the best, but it hasn't been spot on. Also, the GFS and NAM haven't been as bad or inconsistent as people are saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I haven't been paying much attention until last night but it seems like the Euro had the general southward idea for a while now. That is different than expecting identical repetition run after run. Of course you're going to have some minor shifting back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Ok, prove it. The Euro has waffled between a further south solution (which looks like it is the more likely scenario to occur now) and a solution that confines the snow north of I-94, which still might happen. It's probably been the best, but it hasn't been spot on. Also, the GFS and NAM haven't been as bad or inconsistent as people are saying. The ECMWF is the only model (out of the ECMWF/GEM/NAM/GFS) to have a consistent track south of the WI/IL border. The last part of your post is even more lol worthy, given the NAM had the SLP track across Central WI a few runs ago, and as of the 18z run has it tracking near I-80 in North-Central IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The ECMWF is the only model (out of the ECMWF/GEM/NAM/GFS) to have a consistent track south of the WI/IL border. The last part of your post is even more lol worthy, given the NAM had the SLP track across Central WI a few runs ago, and as of the 18z run has it tracking near I-80 in North-Central IL. Track is only part of the equation, though. I can't speak as for the Euro, but the GFS and NAM have been consistent in 0.25-0.5" QPF numbers for most areas affected by the clipper for at least a few days now, and it was stated they were trending toward the Euro wrt moisture, which is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 incorrect. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Track is only part of the equation, though. I can't speak as for the Euro, but the GFS and NAM have been consistent in 0.25-0.5" QPF numbers for most areas affected by the clipper for at least a few days now, and it was stated they were trending toward the Euro wrt moisture, which is wrong. How do you know what the Euro had if you can't speak for it? Probably best to let this argument die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Track is only part of the equation, though. I can't speak as for the Euro, but the GFS and NAM have been consistent in 0.25-0.5" QPF numbers for most areas affected by the clipper for at least a few days now, and it was stated they were trending toward the Euro wrt moisture, which is wrong. Hawkeye was talking about his BY. He is correct given the GFS/NAM have come south, thus increasing QPF in his area as the ECMWF has shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 How do you know what the Euro had if you can't speak for it? Probably best to let this argument die. I can't speak for the exact QPF numbers; I can speak for the area of snowfall and the text output of the Euro. I was primarily trying to temper others' criticisms of the NAM and GFS, b/c I don't think they have been that bad with this (then again, I'm speaking for the Lakes region, and see they have been a bit off for Iowa). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I am pumped for this, we have a legitimate shot at 2-3". Looks good on radar. Going out to stock up on food now since the roads will probably be f'd for at least a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Congrats. Hawkeye was talking about his BY. He is correct given the GFS/NAM have come south, thus increasing QPF in his area as the ECMWF has shown. Wow, shows an inch for here. That would be the best of the season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I am pumped for this, we have a legitimate shot at 2-3". Looks good on radar. Going out to stock up on food now since the roads will probably be f'd for at least a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Wow, shows an inch for here. That would be the best of the season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Very impressive hybrid clipper. One would think it'd have the potential to over-perform somewhere in the main snow band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Hawkeye was talking about his BY. He is correct given the GFS/NAM have come south, thus increasing QPF in his area as the ECMWF has shown. Now that I went back and checked the NAM/GFS qpf for the last four runs, they had been getting juicier even in northeast Iowa, so I guess my last post did exagerate the differences between them and the Euro, at least for the last day. However, the Quad Cities nws discussions from Tuesday/Tuesday night mention the Euro being aggressive with precip across this area while the NAM/GFS were much drier and north, so a couple days ago the difference was pretty notable. The Euro already had a potent little system spinning up in Iowa on Tuesday and it has changed very little since then... and that's what I was trying to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Very impressive hybrid clipper. One would think it'd have the potential to over-perform somewhere in the main snow band. Yep, looks pretty healthy on radar.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Nice line of t'storms associated with the clipper in KS/NE...even a severe t'storm warning for damaging winds. 0417 PM TSTM WND GST NORTON 39.84N 99.89W 12/29/2011 M69 MPH NORTON KS AWOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I am pumped for this, we have a legitimate shot at 2-3". Looks good on radar. Going out to stock up on food now since the roads will probably be f'd for at least a few days. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Nice line of t'storms associated with the clipper in KS/NE...even a severe t'storm warning for damaging winds. 0417 PM TSTM WND GST NORTON 39.84N 99.89W 12/29/2011 M69 MPH NORTON KS AWOS Damn! That's only 1mph from the "destructive winds" description many offices include in their warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Damn! That's only 1mph from the "destructive winds" description many offices include in their warnings. Indeed they did * AT 519 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NORTON...AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. How often does a winter clipper produce severe thunderstorms in KS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 lol My landlord doesn't take care of my driveway at all, despite the fact it's on a 20-30° angle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 My landlord doesn't take care of my driveway at all, despite the fact it's on a 20-30° angle That says it all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 That says it all! Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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