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December 29-31st 2 Clipper Potentials

dmc76

By dmc76,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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on_wx

on_wx

Posted
Posted

0z ECMWF...

PHN:

FRI 18Z 30-DEC   3.5	-0.2	1006	  92	  87	0.04	 545	 540  
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   4.7	 0.1	1003	  95	  41	0.08	 538	 535  
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   3.7	-2.0	1004	  96	  83	0.01	 538	 535  
SAT 12Z 31-DEC   1.8	-3.1	1012	  93	  69	0.01	 545	 535

YKF:

FRI 18Z 30-DEC   2.1	-1.4	1009	  91	 100	0.01	 547	 539  
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   2.0	-1.1	1007	  97	  97	0.11	 542	 537  
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   2.7	-0.6	1004	  98	  68	0.03	 537	 533  
SAT 12Z 31-DEC   2.7	-1.9	1007	  98	  79	0.01	 540	 534

YYZ:

FRI 18Z 30-DEC   3.5	-2.1	1010	  88	  85	0.01	 546	 538  
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   3.2	-1.0	1007	  94	  98	0.10	 543	 537  
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   3.4	-0.4	1004	  96	  55	0.06	 537	 534  
SAT 12Z 31-DEC   3.3	-2.2	1007	  96	  88	0.03	 539	 533

How are these read?

Date...hi temp...low temp...pressure...numbers...numbers...qpf...numbers...numbers...?

Thanks lol

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
Posted

12z ECMWF...

MSP:

FRI 12Z 30-DEC  -0.6	-1.8	1005	  87	 100	0.06	 540	 536  
FRI 18Z 30-DEC  -0.6	-3.6	1008	  86	  89	0.12	 540	 533  
SAT 00Z 31-DEC  -0.7	-4.4	1012	  88	  60	0.02	 542	 533

DSM:

FRI 06Z 30-DEC   5.7	 3.6	1000	  86	  99	0.07	 546	 546  
FRI 12Z 30-DEC   5.0	-0.2	1002	  93	  90	0.09	 541	 540  
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   8.0	-2.1	1007	  57	  61	0.01	 544	 538

CID:

FRI 06Z 30-DEC   3.6	 2.9	1003	  90	 100	0.04	 547	 544  
FRI 12Z 30-DEC   3.2	-0.2	1000	  95	 100	0.11	 541	 542  
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   2.7	-1.7	1004	  93	  96	0.08	 541	 538  
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   3.1	-2.6	1011	  92	  64	0.02	 544	 535

DVN:

FRI 06Z 30-DEC   2.8	 2.0	1005	  90	  98	0.02	 548	 544  
FRI 12Z 30-DEC   4.0	 0.7	1000	  93	 100	0.04	 543	 542  
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   4.1	-1.3	1002	  95	  98	0.08	 541	 539  
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   2.5	-2.3	1010	  95	  99	0.05	 543	 535  
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   1.2	-2.0	1015	  94	  10	0.01	 548	 536

LSE:

FRI 12Z 30-DEC  -0.1	-0.8	1004	  87	  99	0.06	 541	 537  
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   0.0	-2.7	1006	  85	  98	0.14	 540	 535  
SAT 00Z 31-DEC  -0.3	-3.8	1011	  82	  99	0.04	 542	 533

MSN:

FRI 12Z 30-DEC   0.4	-0.3	1005	  91	  99	0.05	 543	 539  
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   0.9	-1.9	1003	  98	  99	0.20	 540	 537  
SAT 00Z 31-DEC  -0.5	-3.3	1009	  90	  98	0.13	 541	 534  
SAT 06Z 31-DEC  -4.0	-2.6	1014	  81	  76	0.01	 545	 534

MKE:

FRI 12Z 30-DEC   1.9	 0.2	1005	  90	 100	0.01	 544	 540  
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   3.2	-1.3	1002	  97	  99	0.23	 540	 538  
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   1.3	-2.7	1006	  96	  98	0.18	 541	 536  
SAT 06Z 31-DEC  -1.8	-2.3	1012	  84	  81	0.02	 544	 534

SBM:

FRI 18Z 30-DEC   1.3	-1.9	1005	  94	  99	0.08	 540	 537  
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   0.1	-3.1	1008	  84	  97	0.13	 541	 535

PIA:

FRI 12Z 30-DEC   5.4	 2.4	1001	  90	  81	0.08	 544	 543  
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   6.1	-1.1	1001	  95	  99	0.07	 541	 540  
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   4.4	-2.4	1009	  89	  97	0.04	 543	 536  
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   2.6	-1.7	1015	  92	  34	0.01	 548	 536

ORD:

FRI 12Z 30-DEC   3.3	 0.5	1005	  92	 100	0.02	 546	 542  
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   6.5	-0.7	1000	  92	 100	0.11	 540	 540  
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   3.4	-1.5	1005	  96	  99	0.13	 541	 537  
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   0.5	-2.5	1012	  87	  82	0.05	 545	 535

MDW:

FRI 12Z 30-DEC   3.8	 0.8	1005	  89	 100	0.02	 547	 543  
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   6.9	-0.6	1000	  90	 100	0.10	 540	 540  
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   4.4	-1.5	1004	  96	  99	0.13	 541	 538  
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   1.3	-2.8	1012	  88	  85	0.07	 545	 535

DEC:

FRI 12Z 30-DEC   6.4	 4.5	1003	  87	  56	0.06	 548	 545  
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   7.0	-1.0	1002	  90	  98	0.06	 542	 540  
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   6.5	-2.2	1009	  77	  79	0.03	 544	 537

VPZ:

FRI 12Z 30-DEC   3.7	 1.6	1006	  85	 100	0.02	 548	 543  
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   7.3	-0.6	1000	  91	 100	0.10	 540	 540  
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   5.5	-1.3	1003	  98	  97	0.12	 541	 538  
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   2.0	-2.8	1011	  95	  90	0.11	 545	 536

LAF:

FRI 12Z 30-DEC   5.5	 3.6	1006	  89	  98	0.06	 551	 546  
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   7.8	-0.3	1001	  91	  96	0.08	 541	 540  
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   5.0	-2.5	1006	  93	 100	0.11	 542	 538  
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   2.4	-2.8	1012	  94	  93	0.06	 545	 536

IND:

FRI 12Z 30-DEC   5.4	 4.4	1008	  88	  87	0.05	 553	 547  
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   8.3	 0.5	1003	  93	  78	0.10	 543	 540  
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   6.4	-1.6	1007	  86	  97	0.09	 544	 538  
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   3.9	-2.8	1012	  91	  96	0.04	 545	 536  
SAT 12Z 31-DEC   2.4	-1.5	1018	  88	  34	0.01	 553	 538

OKK:

FRI 12Z 30-DEC   5.1	 3.6	1007	  86	  87	0.03	 551	 545  
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   7.2	 0.1	1002	  95	  99	0.13	 542	 540  
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   5.3	-2.2	1005	  94	  99	0.13	 542	 538  
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   2.5	-2.1	1010	  97	  95	0.09	 544	 536  
SAT 12Z 31-DEC   1.3	-2.2	1018	  91	  52	0.01	 551	 537

FWA:

FRI 12Z 30-DEC   4.0	 2.6	1008	  85	 100	0.01	 550	 543  
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   7.6	 0.9	1003	  89	  66	0.12	 543	 541  
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   5.7	-1.3	1003	  95	  97	0.15	 541	 538  
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   4.0	-1.2	1007	  97	  97	0.09	 543	 537  
SAT 12Z 31-DEC   2.1	-3.2	1016	  89	  65	0.02	 550	 537

HAO:

FRI 18Z 30-DEC   9.2	 3.0	1006	  84	  42	0.06	 549	 544  
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   8.3	 0.9	1007	  83	  82	0.08	 545	 539  
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   6.4	-2.7	1010	  79	  94	0.02	 545	 537  
SAT 12Z 31-DEC   3.5	-2.3	1017	  85	  70	0.01	 551	 538

DAY:

FRI 18Z 30-DEC   9.0	 2.8	1005	  80	  32	0.02	 549	 544  
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   7.2	-0.1	1006	  88	  94	0.14	 544	 539  
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   4.9	-3.0	1009	  90	  97	0.04	 544	 537  
SAT 12Z 31-DEC   2.7	-2.3	1016	  93	  77	0.02	 550	 538

CMH:

SAT 00Z 31-DEC   8.3	 1.3	1006	  90	  77	0.15	 545	 540  
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   5.9	-2.7	1008	  87	  99	0.06	 543	 537  
SAT 12Z 31-DEC   3.4	-1.5	1014	  93	  82	0.03	 549	 537  
SAT 18Z 31-DEC   4.7	-2.8	1020	  79	  40	0.01	 556	 540

TDZ:

FRI 18Z 30-DEC   7.2	 2.0	1005	  83	  49	0.07	 547	 543  
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   7.2	-0.3	1002	  92	  99	0.17	 541	 539  
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   5.0	-0.7	1005	  95	  96	0.05	 541	 537  
SAT 12Z 31-DEC   2.5	-2.7	1013	  92	  82	0.03	 547	 537

CLE:

FRI 18Z 30-DEC   6.4	 3.0	1008	  75	  71	0.01	 550	 544  
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   7.4	 0.9	1004	  89	  89	0.11	 543	 540  
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   5.4	-1.7	1005	  92	  97	0.06	 541	 537  
SAT 12Z 31-DEC   3.5	-1.7	1011	  96	  95	0.06	 545	 536  
SAT 18Z 31-DEC   3.2	-2.6	1018	  85	  44	0.02	 552	 538

MKG:

FRI 18Z 30-DEC   2.7	-0.7	1004	  94	  99	0.10	 542	 539  
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   1.9	-1.5	1004	  95	  97	0.13	 540	 537  
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   1.6	-2.8	1009	  88	  87	0.03	 543	 535

GRR:

FRI 18Z 30-DEC   2.7    -0.4    1004	  96	  97    0.10	 542	 539   
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   2.3    -0.7    1003	  98	  97    0.12	 540	 538   
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   1.1    -2.5    1008	  96	  85    0.03	 543	 536

BTL:

FRI 12Z 30-DEC   1.2	 2.2	1008	  93	  99	0.01	 547	 541  
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   4.4	 0.3	1003	  90	  83	0.10	 543	 540  
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   4.3	-0.7	1002	  99	  98	0.10	 540	 538  
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   1.5	-1.5	1007	  98	  89	0.04	 543	 537

ADG:

FRI 12Z 30-DEC   1.2	 2.4	1009	  93	  89	0.01	 549	 541  
FRI 18Z 30-DEC   5.8	 1.1	1005	  87	  56	0.09	 545	 541  
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   6.2	-0.4	1002	  96	  98	0.18	 540	 539  
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   4.4	-0.6	1005	  96	  97	0.04	 542	 537  
SAT 12Z 31-DEC   1.8	-2.9	1014	  92	  79	0.01	 548	 537

DTW:

FRI 18Z 30-DEC   4.2	 0.3	1006	  92	  88	0.05	 546	 541  
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   5.6	 0.1	1002	  96	  98	0.16	 540	 539  
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   4.6	-0.4	1004	  96	  95	0.05	 541	 537  
SAT 12Z 31-DEC   2.0	-2.8	1012	  93	  84	0.01	 546	 536

PHN:

FRI 18Z 30-DEC   4.6	-0.1	1007	  83	 100	0.01	 546	 540  
SAT 00Z 31-DEC   4.0	 0.0	1004	  94	 100	0.13	 541	 538  
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   4.0	-0.2	1003	  97	  96	0.09	 540	 538  
SAT 12Z 31-DEC   2.4	-2.6	1011	  93	  91	0.01	 545	 536

YKF:

SAT 00Z 31-DEC   1.7	-0.5	1008	  96	  74	0.05	 543	 537  
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   1.8	-0.5	1004	  98	  98	0.11	 540	 537  
SAT 12Z 31-DEC   1.8	-1.0	1007	  97	  91	0.06	 542	 536

YYZ:

SAT 00Z 31-DEC   3.2	-0.8	1008	  94	  75	0.04	 545	 538  
SAT 06Z 31-DEC   2.8	-0.2	1005	  96	  97	0.10	 541	 537  
SAT 12Z 31-DEC   2.5	-1.3	1007	  97	  97	0.07	 542	 536  
SAT 18Z 31-DEC   3.3	-1.1	1013	  79	  48	0.01	 547	 537

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wisconsinwx

wisconsinwx

Posted
Posted

At this point, I'm leaning more towards 3 inches...but its going to be sloppy.

The models have been trending wetter in the last couple of days; now the NAM has an area of 0.50" QPF or more in WC Wisconsin, so even if half of that was snow, 3 inches is looking quite possible if not likely. Then again, the GFS and GEM are further south, and LaCrosse's point forecast has 33F as the low (although I think that will be a tad too warm, esp if dynamic cooling can be realized early tomorrow morning.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
Posted

How are these read?

Date...hi temp...low temp...pressure...numbers...numbers...qpf...numbers...numbers...?

Thanks lol

date, sfc temp, 850 temp, pressure, probably RH, QPF, thickness/thickness.

Close...

Date/2M Temp/850mb Temp/SFC Pressure/SFC RHU/700mb RHU/6hr QPF/500mb HGT/1000-500mb THK.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

Congrats...the dainty dusting continues in Waterloo. looks like EC has slapped up a winter weather advisory for all of srn ON

It's tapered to pixie dust the last 20 minutes but looks like some better returns are about to move in.

BTW...it's a special weather statement. Ontario region has never issued advisories and EC as whole hasn't issued advisories in probably 10 years.

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weatherpsycho

weatherpsycho

Posted
Posted

It's tapered to pixie dust the last 20 minutes but looks like some better returns are about to move in.

BTW...it's a special weather statement. Ontario region has never issued advisories and EC as whole hasn't issued advisories in probably 10 years.

That is what here today. Pixie dust that then large flakes back to pixie dust then large flakes. All in all a nice snowy day.

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on_wx

on_wx

Posted
Posted

It's tapered to pixie dust the last 20 minutes but looks like some better returns are about to move in.

BTW...it's a special weather statement. Ontario region has never issued advisories and EC as whole hasn't issued advisories in probably 10 years.

i always treat their statements as a certain advisory for ease of clarification.

the snow is picking up here havent seen radar but vis is down to about a km

btw pixie dust sounds so much better than dainty dusting... i need to refresh my winter vocab

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

Posted
Posted

Just saw this reading the morning AFD from LOT written by Gino..

UNFORTUNATELY...P-TYPE ISNT AS STRAIGHT FORWARD AS IT WAS 24 HOURS

AGO WITH THE FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF ALLOWING FOR COLDER

AIR TO SPILL A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. PRECIP LIKELY TO INVADE THE CWA

FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH INITIALLY DRY LOW LEVELS

POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF SLEET OR SNOW AT THE ONSET BEFORE A

FLIP OVER TO RAIN MOST AREAS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO

OFFSET AND OVERCOME THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS

GENERALLY SUPPORT ALL RAIN WITH THE TEMPS HOVERING JUST ABOVE

(ALTHOUGH PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO) FREEZING. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE

STRONGER SOLUTIONS NOW CLOSING OFF A MID-LEVEL LOW AM CONCERNED THAT

THE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/WEAKENING STABILITY COMBINED

WITH THE STRONG ASCENT COULD LEAD TO ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING

FOR A CHANGE OVER TO WET SNOW...AND GIVEN THE PROGGED ASCENT IT

COULD BE A HEAVY WET SNOW. THE H7/H5 LOWS ARE PROGGED TO TRACK EAST

RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE CHANCES FOR A CHANGE TO WET SNOW

ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE TRACK...OR ROUGHLY NORTH OF I-88/I290. THE

THE CHANCES OF A SWITCH TO ALL WET SNOW DO NOT APPEAR HIGH...BUT

SHOULD IT OCCUR COULD BE RATHER HIGH IMPACT OCCURRING CLOSE TO RUSH

HOUR. UNFORTUNATELY...WE ARE TRULY TALKING ABOUT A DIFFERENCE OF 1C

OR LESS AND THAT LEVEL OF PRECISION JUST CANNOT BE DEFINITIVELY

DETERMINED BEYOND ALMOST A NOWCAST TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE

POTENTIAL FOR SOME "CONVECTIVEY" ELEMENTS WITHIN THE PRECIP SHIELD.

FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL WITH HWO.

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hawkeye_wx

hawkeye_wx

Posted
Posted

18z NAM and GFS have both jumped south and strengthened. They had me only getting about 0.1" of rain with no snow. Now they really spin the system up and dump over 0.5". It should still be mostly rain, but the 18z looks fairly potent so maybe I'll see some flakes toward the end. In a normal winter this would be a several inch snow event.

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