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00z GFS is closer to an east coast snow storm, but by different means than the euro. GFS now doesn't even cutoff part of the trough and swings the whole thing through. Could definitely be a winter storm this way, but anything between the euro and GFS is suppression. Hopefully one starts trending strongly toward the other. Meeting in the middle would be uneventful

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Check out the "gradient pattern" out in clown range. Big time -PNA and we're battling the SE ridge. Verbatim it's curtains south of the Pike but who knows where the gradient will set up at this point.

I think we've been here before but earlier in the year...late November when we were getting people excited about a modeled gradient pattern. It didn't end well.

It's a colder time of the year and with some things changing I'm hoping it's going to turn out better but I am not very excited yet.

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Let's hope something can work out for us around the 10th-12th b/c that really could be our last shot until at least sometime towards the end of the month. Looks like around mid-month another system will come through with another strong cold front, however, it appears that the NAO/AO will head positive once again with the EPO kind of fluctuating. -PNA builds big time and the SE ridge really pumps up and there is really nothing to fight back the SE ridge...the NAO, even when it dips near negative just won't stay negative...the 500mb zonal winds are just so strong and this is one thing that is just negating against a -NAO from developing and sustaining.

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Cross polar flow, negative PNA, huge SE ridge. Looks very snowy from the Rockies and Plains to the Lakes in a classic La Nina pattern. But disconcerting to have the GFS (a model not known to be shy about over-doing cold air penetration), actually showing most of the cold locked up to our north. No decent high pressure in Quebec. Maybe we get lucky and the cold presses enough for just one lousy snow event, but who knows.

I think we've been here before but earlier in the year...late November when we were getting people excited about a modeled gradient pattern. It didn't end well.

It's a colder time of the year and with some things changing I'm hoping it's going to turn out better but I am not very excited yet.

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None of the indices are on our side...only hope would be the dense intense cold air can press the boundary south enough in the dead of winter for us to be on the right side of at least one sw flow event.

Let's hope something can work out for us around the 10th-12th b/c that really could be our last shot until at least sometime towards the end of the month. Looks like around mid-month another system will come through with another strong cold front, however, it appears that the NAO/AO will head positive once again with the EPO kind of fluctuating. -PNA builds big time and the SE ridge really pumps up and there is really nothing to fight back the SE ridge...the NAO, even when it dips near negative just won't stay negative...the 500mb zonal winds are just so strong and this is one thing that is just negating against a -NAO from developing and sustaining.

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I think we've been here before but earlier in the year...late November when we were getting people excited about a modeled gradient pattern. It didn't end well.

It's a colder time of the year and with some things changing I'm hoping it's going to turn out better but I am not very excited yet.

True, the proverbial rubber band has to snap sometime though. Maybe it will be in February..heck if I know. Maybe the Cape pulls a 2/26/99.

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None of the indices are on our side...only hope would be the dense intense cold air can press the boundary south enough in the dead of winter for us to be on the right side of at least one sw flow event.

Nothing is on our side and if anything it just appears to get rather worse. Sure it's nice to see all that cold get bottled up in western Canada and western tier of the US but who cares really...if there is nothing that will happen to deliver it here what good is it?

Take this cold snap for example, we will freeze our fannies off for a few days but what do we get out of it? Jacking up our heat? We moderate within days and the only "storm" potential looks to be around the 10th or so and right now that appears to be rather suppressed and well out to sea.

The pattern on the long-range GFS looks absolutely horrible with that major -PNA building...if at least we could get a solid -NAO/-AO that would really help to suppress the SE ridge a bit and perhaps make for an active storm track here but the NAO-AO look to be no help.

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Nothing is on our side and if anything it just appears to get rather worse. Sure it's nice to see all that cold get bottled up in western Canada and western tier of the US but who cares really...if there is nothing that will happen to deliver it here what good is it?

Take this cold snap for example, we will freeze our fannies off for a few days but what do we get out of it? Jacking up our heat? We moderate within days and the only "storm" potential looks to be around the 10th or so and right now that appears to be rather suppressed and well out to sea.

The pattern on the long-range GFS looks absolutely horrible with that major -PNA building...if at least we could get a solid -NAO/-AO that would really help to suppress the SE ridge a bit and perhaps make for an active storm track here but the NAO-AO look to be no help.

The -PNA really looks to dominate in the longer range, which means that the AK block may release cold air that becomes trapped in the West behind a monster SE ridge. The 0z GFS showed the potential for a poor set-up despite a -EPO in the fantasy range...might end up

being a pattern like January 1950 where the west sees arctic air but it never penetrates east:

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The -PNA really looks to dominate in the longer range, which means that the AK block may release cold air that becomes trapped in the West behind a monster SE ridge. The 0z GFS showed the potential for a poor set-up despite a -EPO in the fantasy range...might end up

being a pattern like January 1950 where the west sees arctic air but it never penetrates east:

Like this?

post-532-0-50675100-1325575271.gif

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I think we've been here before but earlier in the year...late November when we were getting people excited about a modeled gradient pattern. It didn't end well.

It's a colder time of the year and with some things changing I'm hoping it's going to turn out better but I am not very excited yet.

A -EPO gradient pattern is far more hopeful than a +EPO.

There is a huge difference. Maybe we still get screwed but at least we have a legit chance in the -EPO gradient pattern.

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A -EPO gradient pattern is far more hopeful than a +EPO.

There is a huge difference. Maybe we still get screwed but at least we have a legit chance in the -EPO gradient pattern.

Well hopefully the -EPO is significant enough to where it's not being overthrown by something else which may be more overpowering.

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No, but I would not be shocked if we warmed up a bit. It may not be totally out to lunch.

Well the op has a big storm and the ensemble mean doesn't which is not surprising. But at d10 I'm not expecting a stable solution either way. The GFS ensemble mean out in the far range is more consistent with prior runs and not surprisingly the op has a different solution for 6z.

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Well the op has a big storm and the ensemble mean doesn't which is not surprising. But at d10 I'm not expecting a stable solution either way. The GFS ensemble mean out in the far range is more consistent with prior runs and not surprisingly the op has a different solution for 6z.

I think it's possible we have a brief warm up before we cool down again, but I could be wrong. Hopefully the euro ensembles are more correct.

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