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That was a tight thermal packing reminiscent of last year.

Unfortunately ... despite my prose often emulating an EXCRUTIATING nerdliness, whereby it would be an easy assumption that must also I have a running roladex in mind of every storm of consequence dating back to 1888, I have no idea which event you are referring?

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That only happens when he's watching weather-porn...

RE the Euro, that is a blue snow thump for much of the interior ...possibly even to I-95. The mid levels are colder than previous systems, such that produces a tighter gradient in the 850mb thermal layout. When the DPVA rides over that - if it did so as the Euro solution has it - than rapid cyclogenesis is an easy assumption due to very upright isentropic lift tapping into evac aloft. The run looks fine within it self in handling those events... "Weather" it verifies or not - heh, we'll see. The Euro has blow a 5 day outlook this year already... Anyway, feedback from rapid cylogen processes would drill the freezing level to the surface with ease in that kind of solution.

For those of you thinking this is rain in this Euro solution, you are either forcing that interpretation to be a dh, or you don't know how to interpret synoptic charts.

wow.

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Since it won't happen, might as well bask in the beauty of the model output while it's there.

Verbatim is significant snow storm for W MA into VT and NH. Nice swath of 6-12", with lollies to 16"

I like how the euro shows a ho hum second largest storm of the year, and everyone's pissed in here.. to a point where Kevin(woty ) is just taking shots at ryan and isn't even talking about it..

It's just really funny how bad this winter has hurt the boards pysche..

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Just a note ... on the Euro this is NOT a SW flow regime anymore. Because it cuts off the low even further to the southwest, the shortwave ridging is over Texas, giving way to a "relative" trough over the southeast. In addition, the anticyclonic wave breaking over the cutoff is now further west. Positioning the downstream trough favorably over the Great Lakes and Northeast. Meanwhile, the Euro also has made the s/w energy near Newfoundland stronger and further west ... working as our 50/50 low.

So the point is that the northward return here is entirely amplitude related and not the result of general SW flow trends.

Whether we're actually in a favorable ridge-trough regime or SW flow regime is dependent on that cutoff, which is tricky business. Trend has been to continuously cut it off further southwest. In the 12z Euro position, great. If it were further east ... over Texas for instance, that results in ridging over the southeast ... SW flow. Even further east is then better again, but that solution has become less likely in recent runs.

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Unfortunately ... despite my prose often emulating an EXCRUTIATING nerdliness, whereby it would be an easy assumption that must also I have a running roladex in mind of every storm of consequence dating back to 1888, I have no idea which event you are referring?

What I mean is that it reminded me of the many storms that crossed the Cape, but had a very tight thermal packing. It's not as impressive, but compact H5 vort was a trait.

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Lol on Bobs reference to these weenies, Forky is probably right. Until we get a real change it's status quo. By the way lame Arctic outbreak. Something's amiss at LL of the atmosphere this year.

Although the core of the coldest air has not yet arrived... (that's tomorrow) I recall mentioning to OSU' last week when the Euro outlined witch's teet with a brassbrazier cold over the area for the time period in question, that without a snow pack and the flow not being directly from the N, one would have to wonder if that wouldn't end up warmer.

KTAN

"THERE IS THE LOW PROBABILITY THAT A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR THE WORCESTER HILLS AND THE EAST

SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES."

We'll see ...but here's the FRH profile over BOS for tomorrow between 12z and 18z:

878886 That equates to -13C at 980, and -12 and -14 at 900 and 800 respectively. When you get that kind of profile in sun at this time of year it means the advection parameters are controlling the thermometer more than diurnal cycle/insolation. -13C at 980mb is probably -10C in the 2-meter, or about 14 or 15F . .. that's cold

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Although the core of the coldest air has not yet arrived... (that's tomorrow) I recall mentioning to OSU' last week when the Euro outlined witch's teet with a brassbrazier cold over the area for the time period in question, that without a snow pack and the flow not being directly from the N, one would have to wonder if that wouldn't end up warmer.

KTAN

"THERE IS THE LOW PROBABILITY THAT A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR THE WORCESTER HILLS AND THE EAST

SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES."

We'll see

The euro did end up being too cold in the low-levels...850s verified pretty well imo....but the surface temps were way too cold.

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The euro did end up being too cold in the low-levels...850s verified pretty well imo....but the surface temps were way too cold.

Interesting! yeah, i meant to follow this but lost track... Holiday crap.. anyway, the lacking local cryo could very well have something to do with that.

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Yea should be cold tonight. I was just hoping for a fierce type of outbreak like what was modeled 4-5 days ago. This step down stuff just does not cut it for me.

tough call here for tonight imo...the ridge crests and winds drop but not sure if we calm out before warm advection starts. I'd probably go about 5 degrees here this evening before warming up overnight.

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