dendrite Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 EC ens are much more generous to the NW than the op. 0.50" line runs from NW CT-ORH-LWM with 0.25" way up into N NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 EC ens are much more generous to the NW than the op. 0.50" line runs from NW CT-ORH-LWM with 0.25" way up into N NH. Wow, could the GFS actually score a coup on this one? What does the thermal profile look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Wow, could the GFS actually score a coup on this one? What does the thermal profile look like? Ens are a little warmer/NW of the op. The southern s/w seems to be a hair slower on the mean than the op as well. It'd be interesting to see what the spread is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 EC ens are much more generous to the NW than the op. 0.50" line runs from NW CT-ORH-LWM with 0.25" way up into N NH. EURO ens are just about perfect for me....yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 EURO ens are just about perfect for me....yikes. Ruh rho. Bullseye this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Ruh rho. Bullseye this far out Hence "yikes"....October 2011 mini me en route...congrats, Hunchback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Ryan made a specific thread for the Thursday winter storm threat so let's try to keep posts relating to that in there and keep this thread for the overall December pattern. Also, we're slowly trying to implement the thread tagging system which came along with the upgrade (which you may have noticed). TIA and happy tracking guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Ryan made a specific thread for the Thursday winter storm threat so let's try to keep posts relating to that in there and keep this thread for the overall December pattern. Also, we're slowly trying to implement the thread tagging system which came along with the upgrade (which you may have noticed). TIA and happy tracking guys. Hope that was OK. Figured I'd break out the threat... and keep the pattern separate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Hope that was OK. Figured I'd break out the threat... and keep the pattern separate Absolutely perfect...that's exactly how we want things to work. We're going to make some predefined tags as well and members will be able to search for similar threads by clicking on any of the various ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 CPC is now seeing the late torch. Warmest prog I've yet seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Any word on how the euro ensembles look like in the long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 CPC is now seeing the late torch. Warmest prog I've yet seen. Actually, cpc isn't seeing it at all. Saturday and Sunday products have no human intervention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Actually, cpc isn't seeing it at all. Saturday and Sunday products have no human intervention. LOL, I like you as the Messenger antidote. Pattern change a bit ahead of schedule? Those fat squirrels aren't going to lie Jerry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 SO overall, nothing really changed as far as I can tell. The GEFS continue with their theme of keeping the ridge in the GOA a little stronger and thus colder for us in New england. The EC ensembles flatten that ridge out and thus are warmer for New England. At least whatever happens in the next 7 days...even if little at all, does show you how you can get threats in a pattern that isn't favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 SO overall, nothing really changed as far as I can tell. The GEFS continue with their theme of keeping the ridge in the GOA a little stronger and thus colder for us in New england. The EC ensembles flatten that ridge out and thus are warmer for New England. At least whatever happens in the next 7 days...even if little at all, does show you how you can get threats in a pattern that isn't favorable. What's the gut feeling for middle of that next week? I see ECM warms up it quickly next Mon/Tues while GFS and GGEM have a reinforcing cold shot nextTue/Wed (little shot of -10C H85s rotates through) before those models warm up later in week 2. Its funny how meaningless this all is to the general public whether we get another cold/dry shot or not, but this is the type of forecasting that makes a big difference in ski resort operations (primarily snowmaking). Its like a giant chess game with equipment moves and not as simple as just, its cold so start making snow, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 What's the gut feeling for middle of that next week? I see ECM warms up it quickly next Mon/Tues while GFS and GGEM have a reinforcing cold shot nextTue/Wed (little shot of -10C H85s rotates through) before those models warm up later in week 2. Its funny how meaningless this all is to the general public whether we get another cold/dry shot or not, but this is the type of forecasting that makes a big difference in ski resort operations (primarily snowmaking). Its like a giant chess game with equipment moves and not as simple as just, its cold so start making snow, haha. I think we could turn milder next week for a few days, but you should still be able to make snow for a good portion of it. It's possible one of the days late next week could be very mild, but I couldn't tell you with high confidence. Hopefully not...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Euro ensembles may have something for eastern areas at 120hrs/saturday 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Euro ensembles may have something for eastern areas at 120hrs/saturday 12z? GEFS had it too, but the low may not develop in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Weekend event possibly showing up on the 12z Ens. today. Looks like there is a trailing shortwave that may act as a kicker preventing anything meaningful. Just some thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Still looks like an overall blah pattern coming up filled with cold shots that will probably warm up as we get closer. We'll probably need thread the needle events like this. Looks to continue for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Still looks like an overall blah pattern coming up filled with cold shots that will probably warm up as we get closer. We'll probably need thread the needle events like this. Looks to continue for a while. Do we warm back up early next week? News outlets have it back to 50-55 by Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Do we warm back up early next week? News outlets have it back to 50-55 by Monday. There are a couple of days where it may be mild, but I don't see any long lasting wintry weather at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 There are a couple of days where it may be mild, but I don't see any long lasting wintry weather at all. What's d11-15 like? I'm out to 12/20 then and only have 5 days left before the pattern change is complete..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 What's d11-15 like? I'm out to 12/20 then and only have 5 days left before the pattern change is complete..... It looks like it could be mild, but maybe a SWFE or two. Slight ridging in NW Canada, but the flow is flat on the euro. I think it has been winning the battle so far, but even a little ridging up to our nw will help. With the raging +AO..we'll need ridging in the AK region, but I don't see it. You'll have to hope we luck out on something.....you never know though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It looks like it could be mild, but maybe a SWFE or two. Slight ridging in NW Canada, but the flow is flat on the euro. I think it has been winning the battle so far, but even a little ridging up to our nw will help. With the raging +AO..we'll need ridging in the AK region, but I don't see it. You'll have to hope we luck out on something.....you never know though. Luck out may be January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I hope we see a more favorable pattern soon. It's getting hard coming on here and weeding through so much pessimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Luck out may be January? I hope, but the AO is really stable right now..perhaps into January, but I am not qualified on that. We can always luck out with something, but the overall pattern just doesn't look very wintry. If the euro ensembles are too bullish with breaking down the ridge and keeping the flow too zonal...then it will be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Euro weeklies are beyond brutal... particularly toward the end of December. An absolutely hideous holiday for those who like cold/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Euro weeklies are beyond brutal... particularly toward the end of December. An absolutely hideous holiday for those who like cold/snow. I didn't see them come in for some reason. I saw week 4 in FB. Yuck. The other weeks seemed ok, but I didn't see H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 This is like last year with a pattrn hard to break. But last year we were on the good side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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