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Dec 5-6 Round Two? NAM brings "sling-shot" Upper Low into SW and the fun has just begun!

wxhstn74

By wxhstn74,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

Puzzling why the NAM has so much boundary layer warmth around here on this run. Nothing has really changed fundamentally.

Same thing happened with the last system and ended up being incorrect as the temps were able to wet bulb downward. I would be very skeptical of any low-level warmth that is from 950mb to the surface.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Same thing happened with the last system and ended up being incorrect as the temps were able to wet bulb downward. I would be very skeptical of any low-level warmth that is from 950mb to the surface.

I am to a point...the thing that concerns me a little more than last time is that the airmass up to 850 mb is more marginal. That is a pretty thick layer where slight errors can wreak havoc. I'm speaking more for my area...may be a different story up your way.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

I am to a point...the thing that concerns me a little more than last time is that the airmass up to 850 mb is more marginal. That is a pretty thick layer where slight errors can wreak havoc. I'm speaking more for my area...may be a different story up your way.

True the temps are a bit more marginal this time around especially down your way, probably why the NAM is a no go there.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
Posted

0z ECMWF...

STL:

MON 12Z 05-DEC   1.6	-0.5	1025	  74	  93	0.05	 563	 543  
MON 18Z 05-DEC   1.6	-2.2	1025	  76	  99	0.07	 560	 541  
TUE 00Z 06-DEC   1.1	-3.8	1026	  80	  98	0.13	 559	 539  
TUE 06Z 06-DEC   1.7	-5.3	1026	  79	  93	0.01	 557	 536

DEC:

MON 12Z 05-DEC   1.9	-0.6	1025	  81	  86	0.03	 563	 543  
MON 18Z 05-DEC   2.2	-2.1	1024	  85	 100	0.08	 560	 541  
TUE 00Z 06-DEC   1.5	-4.2	1025	  97	  97	0.11	 558	 538  
TUE 06Z 06-DEC   1.6	-4.9	1026	  89	  97	0.03	 556	 536

LAF:

MON 06Z 05-DEC   3.7	 1.6	1024	  89	  84	0.05	 565	 546  
MON 12Z 05-DEC   3.3	 0.5	1024	  93	 100	0.20	 564	 544  
MON 18Z 05-DEC   3.1	-0.7	1023	  93	  98	0.19	 562	 544  
TUE 00Z 06-DEC   1.9	-3.3	1024	  97	  98	0.17	 559	 540  
TUE 06Z 06-DEC   1.1	-4.1	1024	  87	  93	0.07	 558	 538

IND:

MON 06Z 05-DEC   6.0	 3.3	1023	  96	 100	0.24	 568	 549  
MON 12Z 05-DEC   4.7	 1.9	1023	  96	 100	0.47	 566	 548  
MON 18Z 05-DEC   4.6	 1.6	1021	  95	  99	0.40	 564	 547  
TUE 00Z 06-DEC   2.0	 0.2	1021	  97	  99	0.28	 562	 545  
TUE 06Z 06-DEC   1.3	-1.7	1023	  91	  80	0.08	 561	 542

OKK:

MON 06Z 05-DEC   4.9	 2.1	1024	  94	  98	0.11	 566	 547  
MON 12Z 05-DEC   4.1	 0.7	1024	  95	 100	0.36	 565	 545  
MON 18Z 05-DEC   3.4	-0.1	1022	  94	  98	0.30	 563	 545  
TUE 00Z 06-DEC   1.3	-2.1	1022	  98	 100	0.22	 560	 542  
TUE 06Z 06-DEC   0.8	-3.4	1024	  87	  97	0.10	 558	 540

FWA:

MON 06Z 05-DEC   5.8	 2.1	1024	  95	  98	0.14	 566	 547  
MON 12Z 05-DEC   4.1	 0.8	1024	  95	 100	0.30	 565	 545  
MON 18Z 05-DEC   3.3	-0.1	1022	  94	  99	0.34	 563	 545  
TUE 00Z 06-DEC   1.3	-1.8	1022	  97	  99	0.24	 560	 543  
TUE 06Z 06-DEC   0.6	-3.4	1023	  88	  97	0.15	 558	 540  
TUE 12Z 06-DEC  -0.5	-4.3	1024	  80	  85	0.01	 555	 536

VPZ:

MON 18Z 05-DEC   4.3	-2.7	1024	  79	  96	0.02	 559	 540  
TUE 00Z 06-DEC   2.0	-5.1	1025	  85	 100	0.04	 556	 536  
TUE 06Z 06-DEC   1.5	-5.1	1025	  75	  98	0.03	 554	 534

BTL:

MON 18Z 05-DEC   2.5	-2.4	1025	  81	  91	0.03	 560	 540  
TUE 00Z 06-DEC   1.2	-4.3	1025	  78	  99	0.04	 557	 537  
TUE 06Z 06-DEC  -0.1	-4.5	1025	  75	  98	0.04	 554	 535

ADG:

 
MON 06Z 05-DEC   5.5	 1.4    1024	  95	  85    0.12	 565	 546   
MON 12Z 05-DEC   3.5	 0.6    1025	  95	  99    0.12	 564	 544   
MON 18Z 05-DEC   2.1    -0.5    1024	  97	  98    0.26	 562	 543   
TUE 00Z 06-DEC   0.9    -2.1    1023	  95	  98    0.22	 560	 541   
TUE 06Z 06-DEC   0.3    -3.2    1022	  90	  99    0.15	 557	 539   
TUE 12Z 06-DEC  -1.2    -4.1    1024	  84	  93    0.01	 554	 535

PTK:

 
MON 06Z 05-DEC   4.6	 0.7    1024	  93	  67    0.05	 564	 544   
MON 12Z 05-DEC   3.3	 0.0    1025	  91	  80    0.02	 563	 542   
MON 18Z 05-DEC   1.8    -1.4    1025	  93	  97    0.10	 561	 541   
TUE 00Z 06-DEC   1.0    -2.9    1024	  90	  98    0.12	 558	 539   
TUE 06Z 06-DEC   0.6    -3.7    1022	  87	  98    0.11	 555	 538   
TUE 12Z 06-DEC  -0.4    -4.1    1024	  84	  95    0.01	 552	 533

DTW:

MON 06Z 05-DEC   6.1	 1.2	1024	  94	  89	0.13	 565	 546  
MON 12Z 05-DEC   4.2	 0.5	1025	  94	  97	0.10	 564	 544  
MON 18Z 05-DEC   2.5	-0.5	1024	  96	  98	0.28	 562	 543  
TUE 00Z 06-DEC   1.3	-1.9	1023	  96	  98	0.23	 559	 541  
TUE 06Z 06-DEC   1.1	-2.9	1022	  91	  99	0.17	 557	 540  
TUE 12Z 06-DEC   0.4	-3.7	1023	  87	  98	0.02	 554	 536

TDZ:

MON 06Z 05-DEC   7.8	 2.1    1023	  96	  99    0.21	 567	 548   
MON 12Z 05-DEC   4.8	 1.0    1024	  96	 100    0.25	 566	 546   
MON 18Z 05-DEC   4.3	 0.3    1022	  95	  99    0.45	 564	 546   
TUE 00Z 06-DEC   1.4    -0.7    1022	  99	  98    0.37	 561	 543   
TUE 06Z 06-DEC   1.0    -2.2    1021	  96	 100    0.24	 559	 542   
TUE 12Z 06-DEC   0.8    -3.4    1023	  91	  94    0.03	 556	 538

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

Yeah, The Weather Network has completely abandoned all hope for any snow in southern Ontario until next week if we're lucky. Maybe a crippling 1-3 cm in Ottawa if they're lucky. Time to get out the rubber boots again.

What sucks is that we're kind of in a window of opportunity here with PNA becoming neutral and the EPO negative. I've been hearing rumblings (over in the NE subforum, although I haven't checked back in about 36 hours) that the EURO ensembles are showing a mid month +EPO/-PNA torch regime. With no help from the Atlantic, there may not be a next week for us. That's why it was sort of important to me to get something to come to fruition with one of these waves. Not impossible, but looking bleak.

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