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Dec 5-6 Round Two? NAM brings "sling-shot" Upper Low into SW and the fun has just begun!

wxhstn74

By wxhstn74,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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wxhstn74

wxhstn74

Posted
Posted

Check out the new storm on the NAM 84 hr for MidWest/Lakes while the GFS and Euro keep her elongated with weak waves. UK's SFC shows impressive inverted trough stickin' it's beak up from the south at 72-96H...usually a forebearer of "somebody's gone to get clobbered." The models again have poor resolution coming into that upper trough/low yet.

Is this a one hit wonder or one to watch!>>>>

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

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southwest vorts are always such a bear to forecast but bring us our best snows. The NAM is in a league of it's own but there were some minor moves in its direction with the GFS and it's ensembles and the SREFs. It doesn't look like the 18z will be as amped as 12z but won't completely capitulate to a hyper suppressed solution either.

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wxhstn74

wxhstn74

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Yeah but look at the can of worms I opened up with the other one, lets hope with this one, the models aren't a mass of contradictions again.

I forgot to mentioned the sfc wave over AR at 84 is in a sweet spot too for the Arkansas into Ohio Valley Low develop.I've been watching for signs of these storm tracks forming but too early to see a definite pattern yet. This winter might bounce all around with storms which is why I wrote the article "Trouble", I really hope not and we get into the groove.

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

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Yeah but look at the can of worms I opened up with the other one, lets hope with this one, the models aren't a mass of contradictions again.

I forgot to mentioned the sfc wave over AR at 84 is in a sweet spot too for the Arkansas into Ohio Valley Low develop.I've been watching for signs of these storm tracks forming but too early to see a definite pattern yet. This winter might bounce all around with storms which is why I wrote the article "Trouble", I really hope not and we get into the groove.

we're talking about a cutoff vort in the desert southwest...not happening.

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RogueWaves

RogueWaves

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I agree that climo says this ends up a bit NW of where the models are showing now. Unless we're talking an overwhelming arctic outbreak, the "typical" track would put Chicago in the game, if not the bullseye. Having said that, a marginal temp event (especially with stronger NE winds) brings into play a warm Lake Mich and could easily "hose" the city and those folks closer to the shoreline. Seen it b4. Some times that big water can be a plus (later season storms like GHD), and sometimes it can be a curse..

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kab2791

kab2791

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DTX

THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE CONVOLUTED HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.

LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON

MONDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SEVERAL

WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE FIRST WAVE

MOVING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT IN PARTICULAR WILL NEED TO BE

WATCHED WITH A 160+ KNOT JET STREAK OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC LEAVING

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION...AT

LEAST DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO

HAVE A POOR HANDLE ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL

UPPER FLOW PATTERN. LATEST 12Z GFS MAINTAINS A MORE

PROGRESSIVE/WEAKER SOLUTION WITH A QUICKER EJECTION OF THE

SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW. THIS KEEPS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MAINLY DRY

THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE LAST FEW FRAMES OF

THE 12Z NAM PAINT A DIFFERENT PICTURE FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT SYSTEM.

THESE SOLUTIONS SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH GOOD UPPER

LEVEL JET PLACEMENT AND A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE PRECIPITATION

SHIELD. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BIAS FOR BEING TOO PROGRESSIVE

WITH THESE AMPLIFIED PATTERNS AND WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF

FOR NOW WITH MID CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT. OBVIOUSLY STILL A LOT

OF UNCERTAINTY AND FURTHER REFINEMENTS WILL BE NECESSARY BUT THE

POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

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wxhstn74

wxhstn74

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DTX AFD....

LOL. Well you can take the WeatherHistorian out of DTX but you can't take DTX out of the WeatherHistorian...

I will have to check to see who wrote that cautionary AFD! It's great to see they are watching the Pacific strongly too.

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
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DVN seems interested.

...HOWEVER 12Z RUNS HAVE STARTED BACKING THE NORTHERN EDGE

NORTH. THE NAM WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH THE

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWFA. THE

ECMWF/GFS/GEM SHOWED THE NORTHERN SHIFT BUT KEPT ANY SIGNIFICANT

ACCUMULATIONS WELL SOUTH OF THE CWFA. CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE

MAINLY DRY BUT IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND NORTH THEN A MENTION OF

SNOW MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

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DVN seems interested.

...HOWEVER 12Z RUNS HAVE STARTED BACKING THE NORTHERN EDGE

NORTH. THE NAM WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH THE

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWFA. THE

ECMWF/GFS/GEM SHOWED THE NORTHERN SHIFT BUT KEPT ANY SIGNIFICANT

ACCUMULATIONS WELL SOUTH OF THE CWFA. CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE

MAINLY DRY BUT IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND NORTH THEN A MENTION OF

SNOW MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

Ya read that earlier. Hard to get excited until we see the GFS/Euro move in the right direction.

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Justin

Justin

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from the other thread, forgot about this one...

This second system is looking more and more interesting, but I'm not ready to bite just yet on anything to drastic. Play things conservative for now and make sure the energy is going to roll out and not get trapped in the SW which is possible...these things can dig into Northern Mexico or retrograde to the Baja region and sit.

The baroclinic zone is mighty impressive should something get going and I wouldn't write off Chicago, Kirksville, Topeka areas to get something good...any further to the NW I just don't see it as the cold air will be so firmly entrenched and deflect precipitation. Nothing like splitting the uprights here and miss one to the NW and then to the SE...LOL. Goes that way a lot, but at least we got a biggie last year so I cannot complain.

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