ski MRG Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 So gloomy in here. Patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 If I hadn't just blown $ in Europe..maybe I'd consider my first AK trip....in desperation. So gloomy in here. Patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Per twitter Out of the 3710 forecasts made since October 2006, GFS just uncorked its worst 5-day score verifying at 00z November 30, 2011. upper level low bust might have had something to do with it. Anomaly correlation of 0.55 at Day 5 in the NH..absolutely awful...significantly worse than the climo model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doug1991 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 That's what I was implying.... A warm Dec. I can reluctantly deal with, but troubled by the analogs for the rest of the winter after a mild La Nina Dec. I am with you. That would be a tough pill to swallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 upper level low bust might have had something to do with it. Anomaly correlation of 0.55 at Day 5 in the NH..absolutely awful...significantly worse than the climo model. that is exactly the culprit, since the GGEM nailed it and you can see it's scores jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The good news is that with the global regime that we heading into, I can't imagine too many dead ratters over the course of the next couple of decades, so if worse comes to worst...we just have to get this outta the way. Scooter would be able to sleep better at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 That verification score looks like spurious data. I doubt it fell off the table to that degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Welcome to at a least a half dozen winter in the 80's to early 90's period. But take heart ...last winter was supposed to crash and burn with a pattern shift to milder in later December. So much for analogs sometimes.... I am with you. That would be a tough pill to swallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 LOL what the hell happened in here? Somebody needs to post the Suicide hotline number STAT. Will, Phil, Scooter and Ryan have been posting the same stuff for weeks, if you read and looked at the pattern it was obvious the beginning of December was not going to be mid 20s and snow, ITS NOT SUPPOSED TO BE ANYWAYS. In 5 years I have never seen SNE have a collective meltdown like this, there are a couple chances for some light snow, its cooling down now and even though its above normal it will feel frigid and more like the holidays. Next week might get close to normal, and we roll the dice around the holidays, and hope a normal winter pattern can set in for JFM.............. This Historical heat of MET autumn 2011 is now over, mission accomplished, its time for snow, it will be here soon enough, until then mow the lawn, rake the leaves and enjoy another perfect late fall day. One day till Winter!! :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 best november ever :sun: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 best november ever :sun: Oh Yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 The good news is that with the global regime that we heading into, I can't imagine too many dead ratters over the course of the next couple of decades, so if worse comes to worst...we just have to get this outta the way. Scooter would be able to sleep better at night. We are sort of due for a dead ratter. By no means am I saying this is it....I'm just saying we should expect it sooner rather than later. I wish I could post EC ensembles stuff without the ECMWF.int secret service breaking down my door, but the pattern at the end of the run stinks. We'll see how the next 2-3 days look and if it is continued. This has been a trend over the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I agree ..but you might make another run at the 60's early next week there. LOL what the hell happened in here? Somebody needs to post the Suicide hotline number STAT. Will, Phil, Scooter and Ryan have been posting the same stuff for weeks, if you read and looked at the pattern it was obvious the beginning of December was not going to be mid 20s and snow, ITS NOT SUPPOSED TO BE ANYWAYS. In 5 years I have never seen SNE have a collective meltdown like this, there are a couple chances for some light snow, its cooling down now and even though its above normal it will feel frigid and more like the holidays. Next week might get close to normal, and we roll the dice around the holidays, and hope a normal winter pattern can set in for JFM.............. This Historical heat of MET autumn 2011 is now over, mission accomplished, its time for snow, it will be here soon enough, until then mow the lawn, rake the leaves and enjoy another perfect late fall day. One day till Winter!! :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 We are sort of due for a dead ratter. By no means am I saying this is it....I'm just saying we should expect it sooner rather than later. I wish I could post EC ensembles stuff without the ECMWF.int secret service breaking down my door, but the pattern at the end of the run stinks. We'll see how the next 2-3 days look and if it is continued. This has been a trend over the last few runs. For the weenies sanity it's a good thing we can't. They're awful. At this point I'm just hoping N VT gets some snow and enough cold to make snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I agree ..but you might make another run at the 60's early next week there. Expected, but I think we torch again mid month, just a little above week 1, close to normal week 2 then a torch, hopefully can cool down just before the holidays! XXX winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 December 1999 must have been horrible like this. I remember I had to go to Tremblant in the days before the Millennium to x country ski (at the National Park..not downhill place). It was miserably mild that holiday period down here. There's always the Laurentians if all else fails. For the weenies sanity it's a good thing we can't. They're awful. At this point I'm just hoping N VT gets some snow and enough cold to make snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 lol I see another round of mass suicides last night. ...while the Euro continues to demonstrate two significant storm threats, and the 06z GFS for the first time is showing multiple opportunities as well. I know the pattern isn't favorable for steady solutions, but it's pretty clear that we have the cold air coming, and tons of energy pouring southward. Given the right timing with s/w interaction, things could turn out pretty well for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Well no sense of people getting terribly depressed. You can still get an advisory or low end warning deal in a crappy pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The overnight models trended significantly worse for lake-effect, too. Unless we get snow today...latest measurable record is a slam dunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Hah ....No suicide induced here because I'm probably far enough west for some snow from the wacky Euro cutoff, but as others have said that was probably a nonsense run. lol I see another round of mass suicides last night. ...while the Euro continues to demonstrate two significant storm threats, and the 06z GFS for the first time is showing multiple opportunities as well. I know the pattern isn't favorable for steady solutions, but it's pretty clear that we have the cold air coming, and tons of energy pouring southward. Given the right timing with s/w interaction, things could turn out pretty well for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Hah ....No suicide induced here because I'm probably far enough west for some snow from the wacky Euro cutoff, but as others have said that was probably a nonsense run. That's if the euro is right, which I don't think it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 lol I see another round of mass suicides last night. ...while the Euro continues to demonstrate two significant storm threats, and the 06z GFS for the first time is showing multiple opportunities as well. I know the pattern isn't favorable for steady solutions, but it's pretty clear that we have the cold air coming, and tons of energy pouring southward. Given the right timing with s/w interaction, things could turn out pretty well for us Never a good sign when I'm one of the most optimistic people around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 lack of accumulating snow will be more tolerable if we can at least get some air masses with sustained cold for pond skating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I'll give it one more week....the flag is in my hand. When does DT release his updated outlook...can't wait to see that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The spread on the GFSENS yesterday (and a consistent theme of the euro) showed the potential for the low in the SW to hang back and take on a positive tilt. Last nights runs take this further. That sort of thing might work ok for the Dacks and NW elevated areas of New England but not for most of us. The impetus for DTs second cold shot (12/10?) I guess must be the idea of a surface low moving from off the west coast of Alaska to near Hudson bay, with seasonably strong HP behind it, directing low level cold air toward the north central US and hopefully helping kick the SE ridge axis east a bit. Even still, would it be able to get snow chances more than say 50-75 miles SE from 12/6? Probably deserve a weenie for speculating about tracks at this range, but I'm plagued by the thought that we are in a stingy step-down pattern, with only small gains between successive events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 I'll give it one more week....the flag is in my hand. When does DT release his updated outlook...can't wait to see that lol I don't know about tossing the flag on the entire winter just yet, although if the month of December sux....it's an option...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I don't know about tossing the flag on the entire winter just yet, although if the month of December sux....it's an option...lol. Penalty, roughing the snowman. 1 month penalty Its freezing out there today. 53 degrees with a brutal windchill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Well no sense of people getting terribly depressed. You can still get an advisory or low end warning deal in a crappy pattern. That has been proven for the doubters here in Oct and again in Nov.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The good news is that with the global regime that we heading into, I can't imagine too many dead ratters over the course of the next couple of decades, so if worse comes to worst...we just have to get this outta the way. Scooter would be able to sleep better at night. I'm with you on October snows. Measurable snow at BOS prior to 11/1 does not correlate well. For the 5 times there has been measurable snow at BOS, all 5 have been below normal snow years. Most just a bit below but below nonetheless. 1979-80 was an unmitigated dead ratter with 12.7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 That Euro closed low etc. wouldn't be any good for LES around next Tues-Thur? The overnight models trended significantly worse for lake-effect, too. Unless we get snow today...latest measurable record is a slam dunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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