40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 :lmao: Because I'm the biggest weenie of all, I toastered myself twice to ensure that I don't have to witness this winter. Tip is well....Tip, so he did, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Looks to me like the GFS is moving toward the Euro with the low early next week, but far enough west to screw us out here also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Nothing but a gully washer on the GFS. Need the first system to drag the front through, otherwise it's just what we all feared which is with no blocking things go west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 GFS is horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Maybe we can make hay with that EPO dump of cold into Canada beyond D7. It appears a gradient pattern with us on the good side is our only hope and it's not a solid one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Nothing but a gully washer on the GFS. Need the first system to drag the front through, otherwise it's just what we all feared which is with no blocking things go west. That one of the 5th has looked warm for days now. The question was if any energy could dig on the backside like the euro op had, but that euro can be aggressive with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Well I hope messenger is hungry. If I'm buying 2 dinners, I'm going to enjoy the food! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Nevermind the Simard Slammer or anything else before Dec 15 for that matter...hopefully we can salvage January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 GFS is horrible that might be the worst run i've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 My good lord what a crappy run!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 My good lord what a crappy run!! Worst run yet. Abandon ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 We're all in this together: Bout sums it up......... Push one of these.... Grab some of these.... Toss one of these... Done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Basically every modeled cold shot is falling apart in the face of the Uber Ridge in the western Atlantic. I mean you know this is extreme when you see this last low close off and give Memphis snow rather than progress into that positive anomaly. So the models are sniffing this out now and the ECMWF answer is to close off the low over the Northeast...because hey it's running into an immovable wall. That one of the 5th has looked warm for days now. The question was if any energy could dig on the backside like the euro op had, but that euro can be aggressive with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Basically every modeled cold shot is falling apart in the face of the Uber Ridge in the western Atlantic. I mean you know this extreme when you see this last low close off and give Memphis snow rather than progress into that positive anomaly. So the models are sniffing this out now and the ECMWF answer is to close off the low over the Northeast...because hey it's running into an immovable wall. It still has a shot particularly the further N&W you go. But after that yick. This is pattern creep 101. Everything falls apart/gets muted/pushed back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Cold dump in the late panels, but that is clown time anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Cold dump in the late panels, but that is clown time anyways. Only good news on the GFS is each successive storm tracks further west. Eventually they'll hit us from the east at that rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Only good news on the GFS is each successive storm tracks further west. Eventually they'll hit us from the east at that rate. I'm going to step back, spend time with family, enjoy my good health and celebrate. The weather will do whatever it does. This hobby is too obsessional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Cold dump in the late panels, but that is clown time anyways. The worst thing about that... is that the N Pac totally reverses with some impressive EPO ridging but with the PNA not cooperating and no lasting blocking you get the SE ridge from hell and cutter after cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Well for at least a one week window we have the ability (AK Ridge) to deliver cold air into the CONUS, but things are conspiring to deprive us even of that. So if it shows more cold dumps in the far long range ...would they even make it here? We have to hope..... Cold dump in the late panels, but that is clown time anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 maybe if we're lucky, we can snag a sonoran heat release out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 All the mets warned us and Tip changed his tune when he reviewed the ensembles. I see no reason for optimism at this point but it in way means that winter is over...it just means it's delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Well we got rid of the AK vortex (at least for awhile), but isn't this map really showing - PNA. Huge ridge yes, but it's fully off the west coast. What constitutes +PNA.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I'm going to step back, spend time with family, enjoy my good health and celebrate. The weather will do whatever it does. This hobby is too obsessional. You guys are freaking insane.. this thread will be hilarious in March after we had a good winter... take a break? Everyone says that, but then for some reason the same folks are on here on the board and watching the models at 00z like 50 year old drunkard who return to the same bar every night... remember when we said that November is going to be a long month.. well Novembers done and that went by quick.. Everyone relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Euro may be too powerful aloft owing to it's assimilation schemes over the polar regions. S/W in question is a high latitude phase prior to entering the lower 48. Stream interaction/identity and subsequent result carries intrinsic element of uncertainty to put it nicely... Significant jet dynamics relayed out of Siberia on that Euro operational version, and most other guidance I've seen more than less indicate similar. Once we introduce that arctic component things get dicey/interesting/potent. That said .... teleconnectors don't really support a full- latitude anomaly over eastern N/A during the D5-8 time range; which is not to say the teleconnectors can't suddenly change - less likely to do so. More local scale anomaly could also propagate through. The SE ridge isn't going anywhere as long as the NAO is positive and the +PNAP expression is a west biased ridge position. That would mean any such diving combination of intermediate and arctic stream coupled system is going to shear to some degree, as the balanced geopotential flow is going to scream with velocity - that damps the jet max. Still, that arctic insertion is going to bring a pretty potent cold mid level jolt into the upper OV, and that could just exceed the damping effect - if so, an NJ model low would be a nice compromise here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 You know things are bad when the focus in a sne thread shifts to ULL induced, modest LES potential. literally LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 You guys are freaking insane.. this thread will be hilarious in March after we had a good winter... take a break? Everyone says that, but then for some reason the same folks are on here on the board and watching the models at 00z like 50 year old drunkard who return to the same bar every night... remember when we said that November is going to be a long month.. well Novembers done and that went by quick.. Everyone relax Guess what? November is not quite over and December is 1 day longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 This Gfs run sucks unless you like a inland runner yeah its terrible. if there is a real storm (not an anafrontal deal), it will be too far west for here also as shown in the pattern shown by the GFS. maybe ottawa may have a chance. ottawa needs to cool down and get some snow on the ground. if that doesnt happen, there is no chance for sustained winter to the S and E aside from thread the needles and transient cooldowns, caveat: unless there is a big neg AO. Sam's snowfalll anomlay map from last night really illustrated that problem nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 You guys are freaking insane.. this thread will be hilarious in March after we had a good winter... take a break? Everyone says that, but then for some reason the same folks are on here on the board and watching the models at 00z like 50 year old drunkard who return to the same bar every night... remember when we said that November is going to be a long month.. well Novembers done and that went by quick.. Everyone relax Lets not be hating on us 50 yr olds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I believe we want that ridge more over the Western US, rather than over the Pacific. Well we got rid of the AK vortex (at least for awhile), but isn't this map really showing - PNA. Huge ridge yes, but it's fully off the west coast. What constitutes +PNA.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Maybe if we had this pattern a month front now when the climo says the SE ridge is vanquished a bit more - we would be able to score some decent gradient pattern overunning events at our 42-44 N latitude region. Agree that absent the Neg NAO it's hard to see why the energy would fully bundle and close off like ECM. It may head in that direction to an extent and then find the weakness in eastern Canada and shear out over the immovable SE Ridge. Euro may be too powerful aloft owing to it's assimilation schemes over the polar regions. S/W in question is a high latitude phase prior to entering the lower 48. Stream interaction/identity and subsequent result carries intrinsic element of uncertainty to put it nicely... Significant jet dynamics relayed out of Siberia on that Euro operational version, and most other guidance I've seen more than less indicate similar. Once we introduce that arctic component things get dicey/interesting/potent. That said .... teleconnectors don't really support a full- latitude anomaly over eastern N/A during the D5-8 time range; which is not to say the teleconnectors can't suddenly change - less likely to do so. More local scale anomaly could also propagate through. The SE ridge isn't going anywhere as long as the NAO is positive and the +PNAP expression is a west biased ridge position. That would mean any such diving combination of intermediate and arctic stream coupled system is going to shear to some degree, as the balanced geopotential flow is going to scream with velocity - that damps the jet max. Still, that arctic insertion is going to bring a pretty potent cold mid level jolt into the upper OV, and that could just exceed the damping effect - if so, an NJ model low would be a nice compromise here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.