Eskimo Joe Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 Hmm still clear visibility here Still clear in centerville too, from what I can see out of the windows at work Interesting, might be dirt or a cloudy lens then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 This is about right. Thank you. I am going with 2-5 inches for places west of the river... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Sucks there's no cold feed into the storm. She's a beaut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 If you were to move that box about 15 more miles to the east, I'd be in the bullseye! My elevation (1800') might make up for that though! Probably our snow will end closer to 10pm. I don't know how much further west the heavy snow will develop as radar indicates the heaviest precipitation may already be over for us. That's not to say we won't get another 4-5 hours of light to moderate snow. I think the winners will be 25-50 miles east of State College in a SW to NE axis. Here is my thinking for best snowfall on top of the latest radar image. Higher elevations especially. Sorry for the ugly presentation, I don't really know of any good mac graphics programs for maps like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Interesting, might be dirt or a cloudy lens then. Down to 45 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Down to 42 degrees. Come on cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Winds picking up to 10-15 mph hopefully will get colder quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gbru316 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Dropped 2 degrees in the past 30 mins here, down to 44 At the rate it has been falling since early afternoon, it'll be around 32 at midnight, which puts us on track forecast of rain/snow until midnight, then snow after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Rates arent doing well at all here considering the echoes, actually I'd have trouble calling it light snow attm and i only got maybe a light coating in some spots. Nexrad has more eastward jog than i'd like to see. Storm better get its act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Down to 45 now. 43.4 under the stevenson screen here at MU. Winds are out of the NNE at 10 mph. .81" for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 41f... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Rates arent doing well at all here considering the echoes, actually I'd have trouble calling it light snow attm and i only got maybe a light coating in some spots. Nexrad has more eastward jog than i'd like to see. Storm better get its act together. nothing on the ground here...not looking good for any accumulation . light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Rates arent doing well at all here considering the echoes, actually I'd have trouble calling it light snow attm and i only got maybe a light coating in some spots. Nexrad has more eastward jog than i'd like to see. Storm better get its act together. Dry air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Rates arent doing well at all here considering the echoes, actually I'd have trouble calling it light snow attm and i only got maybe a light coating in some spots. Nexrad has more eastward jog than i'd like to see. Storm better get its act together. Yeah, not looking real good here either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gbru316 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 43.4 under the stevenson screen here at MU. Winds are out of the NNE at 10 mph. .81" for the day. Ooo look at the guy with the fancy stevenson screen :-P I just have a lowly FARS... I'm noticing an increase in windspeed too, although my station is somewhat sheltered by neighbors trees. Direction is exactly what you are seeing. I'm assuming you're referencing the station on the earth science building? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 43.4 under the stevenson screen here at MU. Winds are out of the NNE at 10 mph. .81" for the day. Cold air seems to be coming in rather steadily. A mesonet site in northern Carroll County at the Mason-Dixon Line in Maryland Rt. 30 is reporting 38 degrees, but it's on a hilltop around 1,000ft ASL. EDIT: AWOS at Camp David is 39 degrees, so that 38 degree reading doesn't seem odd to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 I'm sorry if I am hamming it up, but this is really impressive. The wind is really blowing hard now, the rain is striping the house, and this temp drop is pretty fun. Down to 38.6. Meso for rain -> heavy snow just issued: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2373 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0521 PM CST WED DEC 07 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN PA...S CNTRL AND SERN NY...MUCH OF VT/NH CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 072321Z - 080315Z A TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO NEAR 1 INCH/HR...WHILE SPREADING EWD WITH TIME. AS OF 23Z...RAINFALL RATES CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW NOW NOTED FROM ALTOONA PA NEWD TO NEAR BINGHAMTON NY AND JUST WEST OF ALBANY. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RATES WILL LIKELY BE SUSTAINED AMIDST ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES /0.88 INCH PER 21Z ALBANY SOUNDING/ AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL MOTION BETWEEN... 1. A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH ROTATING EWD THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES...AND 2. A STRONGER AND MORE POTENT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 23Z VAD WIND PROFILE AT ALBANY REFLECTS IMPLIED COLD ADVECTION BEGINNING...WHILE FARTHER EAST TOWARDS COASTAL REGIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE OF RAIN. HOWEVER...THE 21Z ALBANY SOUNDING SHOWED A MORE PROMINENT 850 MB WARM LAYER THAN NEARLY ALL 18Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL FORECASTS...WITH COLDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS WELL. WITH RAPID COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE...A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BEFORE A COMBINATION OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC COLD ADVECTION...DYNAMIC COOLING...AND DIURNAL COOLING CONTRIBUTE TO A P-TYPE OF SNOW. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PWAT VALUE...VERY WET HEAVY SNOW CAN BE ANTICIPATED. ALTHOUGH THE SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THIS EVENT HAS SUPPORTED WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND ACCUMULATIONS MAY INITIALLY BE LIMITED...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES NEAR 1 INCH/HR SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING ACCUMULATIONS WITH TIME. ..HURLBUT.. 12/07/2011 ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... LAT...LON 39887670 39907824 40837775 42447574 43277412 44447238 44387152 43557203 42437366 39887670 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Dry air? Don't think it's really dry air, snow seems to have reverted back to a wetter form and flake size is pretty small. I'm hopin as this low starts to ride up the coast that it stablizes the back edge from pressing east or i'm gonna be bustin bad on my forecast...least back this way anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 There has been a band of 35-40 DBZ over me for the past 1 hr and it is stall here. If we can switch to snow it will be 1-2" per hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Don't think it's really dry air, snow seems to have reverted back to a wetter form and flake size is pretty small. I'm hopin as this low starts to ride up the coast that it stablizes the back edge from pressing east or i'm gonna be bustin bad on my forecast...least back this way anyways. I don't get why I have returns that should indicate mod/heavy snow and I have light rain/snow mix. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 I don't get why I have returns that should indicate mod/heavy snow and I have light rain/snow mix. Weird. It could be heavily rimmed snowflakes which are reflecting more of the radar beam back, thus giving the effect of heavier precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Ooo look at the guy with the fancy stevenson screen :-P I just have a lowly FARS... I'm noticing an increase in windspeed too, although my station is somewhat sheltered by neighbors trees. Direction is exactly what you are seeing. I'm assuming you're referencing the station on the earth science building? Our weatherbug station and the "official" anemometer is on the roof above the wxcenter... our heated precip. gauge with wind blocking and stevenson screen is away from the building in a grassy area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Down to 39. Think the change over is about to get underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I don't get why I have returns that should indicate mod/heavy snow and I have light rain/snow mix. Weird. I'm pretty sure it's the result of melting snow aloft. The melted water clings to the partially melted flake, which results in a much higher reflectivity than a normal snowflake or raindrop. But the real precipitation intensity is much less than the radar dbz value. At the surface, and especially at lower elevations, snow or rain/snow mix could be relatively light. Higher up it's likely to be the large aggregate parachute variety. Immediately to the NW of the bright banding is where the accumulating snow should begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Our weatherbug station and the "official" anemometer is on the roof above the wxcenter... our heated precip. gauge with wind blocking and stevenson screen is away from the building in a grassy area. Nobody's impressed... okay, I can't straight face that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 It could be heavily rimmed snowflakes which are reflecting more of the radar beam back, thus giving the effect of heavier precipitation. Thanks, probably is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I'm pretty sure it's the result of melting snow aloft. The melted water clings to the partially melted flake, which results in a much higher reflectivity than a normal snowflake or raindrop. But the real precipitation intensity is much less than the radar dbz value. At the surface, and especially at lower elevations, snow or rain/snow mix could be relatively light. Higher up it's likely to be the large aggregate parachute variety. Immediately to the NW of the bright banding is where the accumulating snow should begin. Thanks. It already changed to snow earlier but it mixed back with rain for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 It could be heavily rimmed snowflakes which are reflecting more of the radar beam back, thus giving the effect of heavier precipitation. Wish CTP/CCX had dual polarization radar. This ^^ would be easily spotted with differential reflectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Back edge is approaching quickly. Areas where the heavier returns are and to the east still have a chance for some accumulation. This storm just had upset written all over it. Too many things had to come together for this to be a widespread significant storm. The lack of cold air was/is the killer. Latest HRRR (21z) is clearly too far west with the bulk of the precipitation. Forecast (for 6pm): Actual (6:08pm): Kudos to the GFS for picking the storm up earliest and nailing the timing, and temperatures. (correct me if I'm wrong but I think that's the case). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Nobody's impressed... okay, I can't straight face that If your ever in the area during daytime hours come on by and take a look around. Visitors are always welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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