moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Fresh from BOX: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 432 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011 ...SLIPPERY TRAVEL OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING... MAZ002-003-NHZ011-015-230545- /O.NEW.KBOX.WW.Y.0022.111123T0300Z-111123T1900Z/ WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-CHESHIRE NH- WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE... JAFFREY...KEENE...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE 432 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY COMBINATION OF RAIN...SNOW...SLEET AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST WEDNESDAY. * LOCATIONS...FRANKLIN COUNTY...CHESHIRE COUNTY AND WESTERN CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES. * HAZARD TYPES...RAIN...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...ALONG WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. THERE IS A LOW RISK OF ISOLATED SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN CHESHIRE COUNTY. * TIMING...10 PM TUESDAY UNTIL 2 PM WEDNESDAY. * IMPACTS...SLIPPERY TRAVEL ESPECIALLY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. 38.6/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Fresh from BOX: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 432 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011 ...SLIPPERY TRAVEL OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING... MAZ002-003-NHZ011-015-230545- /O.NEW.KBOX.WW.Y.0022.111123T0300Z-111123T1900Z/ WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-CHESHIRE NH- WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE... JAFFREY...KEENE...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE 432 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY COMBINATION OF RAIN...SNOW...SLEET AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST WEDNESDAY. * LOCATIONS...FRANKLIN COUNTY...CHESHIRE COUNTY AND WESTERN CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES. * HAZARD TYPES...RAIN...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...ALONG WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. THERE IS A LOW RISK OF ISOLATED SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN CHESHIRE COUNTY. * TIMING...10 PM TUESDAY UNTIL 2 PM WEDNESDAY. * IMPACTS...SLIPPERY TRAVEL ESPECIALLY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. 38.6/30 Congrats mike, You may get some.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Boy--Sam you might be able to get a job drawing BOX's maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I'd invite you up, but I have to leave early in the morning to pick up my truck. New engine FTW. Unfortunately it wouldn't surprise me if I end up with about 3-4" of snow followed by 1" of sleet anyways. that's ok...i'll just set my tent up in your back yard...i hope you have some woods...god forbid i answer the call of nature and end up getting charged as a sex offender Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Congrats mike, You may get some.. Not so sure of that, Jeff. My in-laws are visiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Not so sure of that, Jeff. My in-laws are visiting. Oh, My condolences......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Looks like the 18z GFS is near the flip to sleet here around 12z. 850 is 1C cooler, but 750 is a little warmer. It wouldn't shock me to see that trend continue a little more as well. Regardless that's a hair over 1" QPF for me by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 low-level cold from the high does mean some business...high of 37 in BUF today...36 and light rain...just started. I was going to say that too... it was a lot colder up here today than expected. Snowmaking was not supposed to be able to continue down to 1,500ft all day today but we hovered around 32F all afternoon. The ASOS sites up here all had highs of 36F today I believe (BTV, MVL, MPV) when they were forecast more around 40F (low 40s as of yesterday). Overnight frost never melted today off north facing lawns and roof-tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I was going to say that too... it was a lot colder up here today than expected. Snowmaking was not supposed to be able to continue down to 1,500ft all day today but we hovered around 32F all afternoon. The ASOS sites up here all had highs of 36F today I believe (BTV, MVL, MPV) when they were forecast more around 40F (low 40s as of yesterday). Overnight frost never melted today off north facing lawns and roof-tops. Not sure what the forecasted high was today, but I don't think there was any type of bust of note. 38.6/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 SW NH finally included. AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I'm still liking my earlier call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Temp 37.6F. Time to start droppin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 Man I used to love this model... good ol' ETA. I'm going to hit it now because its got that band of heavier precip from SLK-MPV-IZG just like Dendrite posted the EURO ensembles are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Expecting as mixed bag here with Thanksgiving day dawning with a bit of frozen crust. 37/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 yeah it was frosty all day today in the shade. looks like 18z GFS bumped up the northern edge, fairly similar to the euro now up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Could turn into a peltfest for Brian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 yeah it was frosty all day today in the shade. looks like 18z GFS bumped up the northern edge, fairly similar to the euro now up here. Yeah, SREFS are almost spot on with the EURO for axis of best snowfall. I'll be watching for a band to set up just to my south, like SLK-BTV-MPV-IZG (lines up with 8"+ probs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Could turn into a peltfest for Brian. Brian can have a peltfest and maybe I can squeak out parachutes being 25 miles further north. I'll keep my computer on so the weather station updates. My website is http://www.metrocast.net/~wxeye/ It also includes my high resolution webcam Looks like I am going to be right on the line of staying all snow or going to sleet. Either way it will be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Boy--Sam you might be able to get a job drawing BOX's maps. Here is the corrected map is now posted on BOX's website. The previous map posted here was produced at our office in error. --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Just remember, it will be a front in dump, but the dryslot could really come in quick. Sometimes the duration and model QPF can run high, especially near and south of the 700 low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Good for CNE/NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Wonder if PWM proper is toaster bath worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 Just remember, it will be a front in dump, but the dryslot could really come in quick. Sometimes the duration and model QPF can run high, especially near and south of the 700 low track. Yeah its a good thing to remember... BTV hit that hard in their AFD and is likely why their forecast is a bit less than equal areas in GYX's warning area. WITH OPEN 500MB WAVE...POTENTIAL STORM DURATION APPEARS LIMITED. ALL MODELS AGREE ON ROUGHLY 8-10 HR PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...SO IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GREATLY EXCEED FORECAST AMTS. QUICK WARM ADVECTION EVENTS LIKE THIS ARE OFTEN GOOD FOR ABOUT 6" OF SNOW...BUT DURATION BECOMES A FACTOR IN LIMITING ANY EXTREME AMTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Here is the corrected map is now posted on BOX's website. The previous map posted here was produced at our office in error. --Turtle Well that's a buzz-kill! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Could turn into a peltfest for Brian. Would not surprise me in the least. I'm just hoping to stay all snow through 12z and maximize the snowfall in that initial thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 Forecast looks good to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Forecast looks good to me... Your BTV WRF keeps me mostly, if not all, snow. How has it performed in SWFEs from your experience? I've checked it out here and there, but not religiously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Forecast looks good to me... Pete's house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Your BTV WRF keeps me mostly, if not all, snow. How has it performed in SWFEs from your experience? I've checked it out here and there, but not religiously. I think you are looking pretty good right now... I'm actually starting to think this might overperform in areas because this is such a front-end dump... The newest RUC came in really cold (within 9 hours now) and has areas of SNH ripping snow for about 4-5 hours with the line finally lifting north after most of the heavy precip has left. Its gonna be really close down here I think... Should be real fun to watch. Already down to 34.3 here with a forecasted low temp of 35... hmmm also... is it me or does this look like its going to start a little earlier than progged? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 Would not surprise me in the least. I'm just hoping to stay all snow through 12z and maximize the snowfall in that initial thump. I think you get smoked... you're area has been lucky lately. Obs should be good tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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