Organizing Low Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 This is what I sent out this morning: thats a really good map for the north country. most people dont pay attention to right along the border zone, so i commend you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 It got pretty warm over in NE I see. Lots of mid 40s in MA and even into southern NH. 34.9 with a dp of 27 here and now fully OVC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Using GFS thermal profiles (a warmer model mind you) and a top down precip tool yields a lot of frozen precip in NH. Mixing only occurring in my far southern warned counties and rain only occurring for coastal zones and southern Merrimack Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Using GFS thermal profiles (a warmer model mind you) and a top down precip tool yields a lot of frozen precip in NH. Mixing only occurring in my far southern warned counties and rain only occurring for coastal zones and southern Merrimack Co. Seems like the GFS has been the warmest with the Nam the coldest and Euro in between, Thats good, Does any rain make it into york county seeing they are adjacent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 This is what I sent out this morning: Good looking map, Sam. I think you're being a little generous with your 1-2" area, but since I'm in it, I'll take it. You still have that 2-4 tantalizingly close to the Pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Eckster you working? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Eckster you working? I worked last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I worked last night. Are you going to be on for this or home? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Hey, is this the first pinned thread of the season? Cool Beans. Here's the updated ZFP for western Franklin County. Tough to accummulate with this type of mix I think. That said, it's nice to see just snow/sleet icons in my p/c. 40.2/31 WESTERN FRANKLIN MA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHFIELD...CHARLEMONT...COLRAIN... SHELBURNE 115 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011 .THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN...SNOW WITH A CHANCE OF SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT AS COOL. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY...RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COLD. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Are you going to be on for this or home? Working tonight at 10p...just like for the pre-halloween storm. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Working tonight at 10p...just like for the pre-halloween storm. Good times. Nice, Yeah our areas look like we are sitting in the good stuff when it rips Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Working tonight at 10p...just like for the pre-halloween storm. Good times. Nice, Yeah our areas look like we are sitting in the good stuff when it rips Euro looks like just about all snow for you and Mike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Euro looks like just about all snow for you and Mike. Yes, I was looking at the upper air profiles, We cooled at the surface and aloft at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Seems like the GFS has been the warmest with the Nam the coldest and Euro in between, Thats good, Does any rain make it into york county seeing they are adjacent? Sort of splits York Co., northern part would be a nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Euro looks like just about all snow for you and Mike. What a nice little treat amidst a warm pattern. We'll see gow this goes tonight. I just don't want to see 2-4 hours of S+ then the precip go all showery on me as the mid level warm front passes. I think model qpf is overdone as it is and that won't help. We went lock stock nam profiles last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Euro looks like just about all snow for you and Mike. Congrats!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Sort of splits York Co., northern part would be a nice storm. I fully endorse this statement. Is the projected start time still in the pre-dawn hours? I head to work around 5 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I fully endorse this statement. Is the projected start time still in the pre-dawn hours? I head to work around 5 am. Any start-time thoughts for the precip out this way? Note I did not say snow...... 40.4/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 What a nice little treat amidst a warm pattern. We'll see gow this goes tonight. I just don't want to see 2-4 hours of S+ then the precip go all showery on me as the mid level warm front passes. I think model qpf is overdone as it is and that won't help. We went lock stock nam profiles last night. Even the GFS and Euro are spitting out decent qpf totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 What a nice little treat amidst a warm pattern. We'll see gow this goes tonight. I just don't want to see 2-4 hours of S+ then the precip go all showery on me as the mid level warm front passes. I think model qpf is overdone as it is and that won't help. We went lock stock nam profiles last night. If you look at the SPC WRF, I like how it depicts things unfolding. It's a 6 -8hr dump for much of the area, and then it gets a little showery or banded as the DS approaches across srn NH and srn ME. Further north, the bands hold on...probably where the biggest accumulations will be. The duration and QPF may be a bit less as shown...usually the case with these..but it looks to rip once it comes in. I guess it just depends on your location. That area near IZG over to Bethel, New Sharon, Livermore...somewhere around there looks to be in the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I fully endorse this statement. Is the projected start time still in the pre-dawn hours? I head to work around 5 am. Looks like the heaviest precip will be falling right around dawn for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Looks like the heaviest precip will be falling right around dawn for you. Work cancel for Eric. Early and extended TG break, ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 If you look at the SPC WRF, I like how it depicts things unfolding. It's a 6 -8hr dump for much of the area, and then it gets a little showery or banded as the DS approaches across srn NH and srn ME. Further north, the bands hold on...probably where the biggest accumulations will be. The duration and QPF may be a bit less as shown...usually the case with these..but it looks to rip once it comes in. I guess it just depends on your location. That area near IZG over to Bethel, New Sharon, Livermore...somewhere around there looks to be in the sweet spot. That SPC wrf has been pretty darn good I've noticed. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 That SPC wrf has been pretty darn good I've noticed. I like it. I agree...I use it quite a bit. It usually has a good handle on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Looks like the heaviest precip will be falling right around dawn for you. Thanks, much appreciated. Work cancel for Eric. Early and extended TG break, ftw! A distinct possibility. I know this - I love my job, but I'd rather be in Limington for this than Portland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I agree...I use it quite a bit. It usually has a good handle on things. Scott, are you concerned with "on the border" areas coming out with more snow than anticipated? If this front end dump is dropping like 2-3" rates for a couple hours than D.S, it could be interesting for on the fence areas.. I still think we should be closely following the18z and 00z models cause 30 miles could make a huge difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 NYZ038-040-048>050-054-084-231000- /O.EXB.KALY.WW.Y.0022.111123T0500Z-111124T0000Z/ SOUTHERN HERKIMER-MONTGOMERY-WESTERN SCHENECTADY- EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-EASTERN RENSSELAER- SOUTHERN WASHINGTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS... MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE...AMSTERDAM...WELLSVILLE... DELANSON...ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM... BALLSTON SPA...MECHANICVILLE...WATERFORD...HOOSICK FALLS... HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...GREENWICH 208 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY. * LOCATIONS...MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER AND CENTRAL TACONICS. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...MIXED WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE. TWO TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL MIXED WITH UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. * TIMING...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...MIXING WITH SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...MODERATE IMPACT ON TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. * TEMPERATURES...AROUND FREEZING. * VISIBILITIES...MODERATE SNOWFALL COULD PRODUCE VISIBILITIES UNDER A MILE AT TIMES. NYZ039-041-082-083-VTZ013>015-231000- /O.EXT.KALY.WW.Y.0022.111123T0500Z-111124T0000Z/ SOUTHERN FULTON-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN FULTON- SOUTHEAST WARREN-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN... SARATOGA SPRINGS...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD...GLENS FALLS... WEST GLENS FALLS...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE... BRATTLEBORO...WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS 208 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND GLENS FALLS AREAS...NORTHERN SARATOGA COUNTY MAINLY ABOVE 1000 FEET AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. * IMPACTS...MODERATE SNOW...MIXED WITH SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES MAY RESULT FROM FALLEN TREE LIMBS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH...GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30 DEGREES. * VISIBILITIES...REDUCED TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 NYZ038-040-048>050-054-084-231000- /O.EXB.KALY.WW.Y.0022.111123T0500Z-111124T0000Z/ SOUTHERN HERKIMER-MONTGOMERY-WESTERN SCHENECTADY- EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-EASTERN RENSSELAER- SOUTHERN WASHINGTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS... MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE...AMSTERDAM...WELLSVILLE... DELANSON...ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM... BALLSTON SPA...MECHANICVILLE...WATERFORD...HOOSICK FALLS... HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...GREENWICH 208 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY. * LOCATIONS...MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER AND CENTRAL TACONICS. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...MIXED WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE. TWO TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL MIXED WITH UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. * TIMING...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...MIXING WITH SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...MODERATE IMPACT ON TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. * TEMPERATURES...AROUND FREEZING. * VISIBILITIES...MODERATE SNOWFALL COULD PRODUCE VISIBILITIES UNDER A MILE AT TIMES. NYZ039-041-082-083-VTZ013>015-231000- /O.EXT.KALY.WW.Y.0022.111123T0500Z-111124T0000Z/ SOUTHERN FULTON-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN FULTON- SOUTHEAST WARREN-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN... SARATOGA SPRINGS...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD...GLENS FALLS... WEST GLENS FALLS...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE... BRATTLEBORO...WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS 208 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND GLENS FALLS AREAS...NORTHERN SARATOGA COUNTY MAINLY ABOVE 1000 FEET AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. * IMPACTS...MODERATE SNOW...MIXED WITH SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES MAY RESULT FROM FALLEN TREE LIMBS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH...GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30 DEGREES. * VISIBILITIES...REDUCED TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES. Is that you, Rick? Congratulations! 40.4/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Scott, are you concerned with "on the border" areas coming out with more snow than anticipated? If this front end dump is dropping like 2-3" rates for a couple hours than D.S, it could be interesting for on the fence areas.. I still think we should be closely following the18z and 00z models cause 30 miles could make a huge difference I could see you getting a few inches at least. I think you mix pretty easily though, but it could be very messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I could see you getting a few inches at least. I think you mix pretty easily though, but it could be very messy. Scott--you're rewriting the book I just said was written..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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