wxmanmitch Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Brian can have a peltfest and maybe I can squeak out parachutes being 25 miles further north. I'll keep my computer on so the weather station updates. My website is http://www.metrocast.net/~wxeye/ It also includes my high resolution webcam Looks like I am going to be right on the line of staying all snow or going to sleet. Either way it will be interesting I think you're in a good spot. You'll probably get mostly snow until the dry slot approaches. Then as it moves in you'll probably flip to some light mix, but not before a solid 8-10" type storm. Maybe you'll pull off 12". Good old, central NH SWFE. Saw plenty of these while in met school up there. Sometimes your area gets screwed from nor'easters being to far S and E and/or from downsloping off the Whites, but you shouldn't have to worry about that this time around. I look forward to your obs. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 Your BTV WRF keeps me mostly, if not all, snow. How has it performed in SWFEs from your experience? I've checked it out here and there, but not religiously. I can't say exactly on SWFEs as we haven't had many recently (I don't think they had it during 07-08 sw-flow winter), but I feel like its been pretty good over the last two seasons. It really likes upslope events (go figure) and does well with terrain enhancement and low level cold. Things that are a bit more topography related, like its surface temps are usually pretty solid. I trust it about as much as I do as the other meso-scale models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I think you're in a good spot. You'll probably get mostly snow until the dry slot approaches. Then as it moves in you'll probably flip to some light mix, but not before a solid 8-10" type storm. Maybe you'll pull off 12". Good old, central NH SWFE. Saw plenty of these while in met school up there. Sometimes your area gets screwed from nor'easters being to far S and E and/or from downsloping off the Whites, but you shouldn't have to worry about that this time around. I look forward to your obs. Enjoy! Hey! You're wxmanMitch again!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 Pete's house? Haha Mt Baker...the categorical POPS wording for snow is great in the extended forecast. This Afternoon: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 17. Breezy, with a west southwest wind around 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 20 to 26 inches possible. Tonight: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. Windy, with a south southwest wind 22 to 25 mph increasing to between 46 and 49 mph. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible. Wednesday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to near 19 by 11am, then falling to around 10 during the remainder of the day. Breezy, with a west southwest wind between 23 and 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible. Wednesday Night: Snow showers, mainly before 4am. Low around 7. West southwest wind between 7 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Thanksgiving Day: Snow, mainly after 10am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 10. Windy, with a southwest wind between 29 and 36 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible. Thursday Night: Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 0. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches possible. Friday: Snow showers likely. Cloudy and cold, with a high near 5. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Friday Night: Snow. Cloudy and breezy, with a low around 3. Saturday: Snow. Cloudy and windy, with a high near 13. Saturday Night: Snow. Cloudy, with a low around 11. Sunday: Snow. Cloudy, with a high near 19. Sunday Night: Snow. Cloudy, with a low around 9. Monday: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 If only I were still in school... Classic ~6 inch for the Big Green... Maybe a little more... Though I would worry about ping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 I think you're in a good spot. You'll probably get mostly snow until the dry slot approaches. Then as it moves in you'll probably flip to some light mix, but not before a solid 8-10" type storm. Maybe you'll pull off 12". Good old, central NH SWFE. Saw plenty of these while in met school up there. Sometimes your area gets screwed from nor'easters being to far S and E and/or from downsloping off the Whites, but you shouldn't have to worry about that this time around. I look forward to your obs. Enjoy! I also agree... wxeye would be in my jackpot forecast. 1,100ft over Plymouth is a quality spot to be in right now. I'd say he's good for a solid 10 or 11 inches with 2-3"/hr type stuff as the wall moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Haha Mt Baker...the categorical POPS wording for snow is great in the extended forecast. This Afternoon: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 17. Breezy, with a west southwest wind around 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 20 to 26 inches possible. Tonight: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. Windy, with a south southwest wind 22 to 25 mph increasing to between 46 and 49 mph. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible. Wednesday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to near 19 by 11am, then falling to around 10 during the remainder of the day. Breezy, with a west southwest wind between 23 and 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible. Wednesday Night: Snow showers, mainly before 4am. Low around 7. West southwest wind between 7 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Thanksgiving Day: Snow, mainly after 10am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 10. Windy, with a southwest wind between 29 and 36 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible. Thursday Night: Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 0. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches possible. Friday: Snow showers likely. Cloudy and cold, with a high near 5. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Friday Night: Snow. Cloudy and breezy, with a low around 3. Saturday: Snow. Cloudy and windy, with a high near 13. Saturday Night: Snow. Cloudy, with a low around 11. Sunday: Snow. Cloudy, with a high near 19. Sunday Night: Snow. Cloudy, with a low around 9. Monday: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 17. Nice... sounds like West Chesterfield, MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Haha Mt Baker...the categorical POPS wording for snow is great in the extended forecast. This Afternoon: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 17. Breezy, with a west southwest wind around 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 20 to 26 inches possible. Tonight: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. Windy, with a south southwest wind 22 to 25 mph increasing to between 46 and 49 mph. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible. Wednesday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to near 19 by 11am, then falling to around 10 during the remainder of the day. Breezy, with a west southwest wind between 23 and 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible. Wednesday Night: Snow showers, mainly before 4am. Low around 7. West southwest wind between 7 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Thanksgiving Day: Snow, mainly after 10am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 10. Windy, with a southwest wind between 29 and 36 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible. Thursday Night: Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 0. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches possible. Friday: Snow showers likely. Cloudy and cold, with a high near 5. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Friday Night: Snow. Cloudy and breezy, with a low around 3. Saturday: Snow. Cloudy and windy, with a high near 13. Saturday Night: Snow. Cloudy, with a low around 11. Sunday: Snow. Cloudy, with a high near 19. Sunday Night: Snow. Cloudy, with a low around 9. Monday: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 17. Mt Baker is an awesome place. I've had some of the best days of my life there. The first time I went there the snowbanks on the access road were 30+' high. OB skiing to die for.....or while doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 With all the snow talk to the north, what are we looking at for rain here in SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 With all the snow talk to the north, what are we looking at for rain here in SNE? 1.5-2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 I like the orientation of the convection across the Southeast right now. A nice north-south line should enhance the southerly flow and moisture transport into New England, rather than a southwest-northeast line shunting it too far east. I sort of enjoy this part of the forecast. The hard part is done for me, and my grids are set, snowfall map is out there. But now I have to sit back and see if it verifies. I tried to sharpen that southern gradient as much as I could. Still 20-30 miles are going to be crucial on that fringe. If I bust I think that is the most likely spot, and honestly I could see it busting either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 I like the orientation of the convection across the Southeast right now. A nice north-south line should enhance the southerly flow and moisture transport into New England, rather than a southwest-northeast line shunting it too far east. I sort of enjoy this part of the forecast. The hard part is done for me, and my grids are set, snowfall map is out there. But now I have to sit back and see if it verifies. I tried to sharpen that southern gradient as much as I could. Still 20-30 miles are going to be crucial on that fringe. If I bust I think that is the most likely spot, and honestly I could see it busting either direction. The impressive low dews seem to indicate a good chance your southern gradient busts on the good side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 The impressive low dews seem to indicate a good chance your southern gradient busts on the good side. Yeah KCON being 32/26 right now bodes pretty well for an all snow start. I'll be interested to see the ALY and GYX soundings tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Well that's a buzz-kill! lol It's the same exact map, just different coloring schemes. Either way, it does agree with mine pretty well right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Classic SWFE signature look on that radar, Looks quite healthy lot of 30-40+ dbz echoes embedded in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Yeah KCON being 32/26 right now bodes pretty well for an all snow start. I'll be interested to see the ALY and GYX soundings tonight. MWN dropped to -2 DP on SW flow too. Nice drain at low levels too. Should be an impressive 7-8 hour period for you folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 35/32, echoes on the doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 35/32, echoes on the doorstep. It gon rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 It gon snow I know quite a bit to........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Classic SWFE signature look on that radar, Looks quite healthy lot of 30-40+ dbz echoes embedded in there Yeah, 07-09 style stuff right here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Yeah, 07-09 style stuff right here We saw many of them in 07-08... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 It gon rain I'll get some frozen. So will MRG. I'm happy that snow will fall period as I go to snow. I'm very confident this is going to be a big Winter. So much so that I'm going to drop some serious coin for a completely new rig. (don't tell my wife.lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 I also agree... wxeye would be in my jackpot forecast. 1,100ft over Plymouth is a quality spot to be in right now. I'd say he's good for a solid 10 or 11 inches with 2-3"/hr type stuff as the wall moves through. Powderfreak, what I am really happy about is my temperature right now. Its leveled off at 32.7-32.9F but the dewpoint is 20F so I should fall to around 29 or 30 I would guess. We had full sun till about 2pm and temp went up to 41F. I was worried that I would start as a mix and waste QPF till I dropped down to near freezing. Now I know I will start as accumulating snow and my ratios will not be that bad being a couple of degrees below freezing. The upper level warming is my fear, will or will I not go to sleet. Kind of makes it fun living on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 I know quite a bit to........ I am very happy for my northern brethren. Think you get a foot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 I'll get some frozen. So will MRG. I'm happy that snow will fall period as I go to snow. I'm very confident this is going to be a big Winter. So much so that I'm going to drop some serious coin for a completely new rig. (don't tell my wife.lol) MRG begins. You and I might see a little, but I'm not countinh on more than a dusting that gets washed away. Hopefully the mountains get crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 I am very happy for my northern brethren. Think you get a foot? I had 10-14" in my call, It will be close as long as i rip without pelting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 What's the lag time between leading edge of the radar echoes and precip for this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Steady freezing rain here now and 30.6F. Glaze everywhere...not too pleasant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 What do we think for Rindge, folks? 1-3" is my guess with the precipitation mostly being sleet/rain. Being this far southwest in the state is going to make a huge difference in this one, unfortunately. 18z NAM looked a little colder than the GFS but still not chilly enough to get excited about right on the Massachusetts border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 I also agree... wxeye would be in my jackpot forecast. 1,100ft over Plymouth is a quality spot to be in right now. I'd say he's good for a solid 10 or 11 inches with 2-3"/hr type stuff as the wall moves through. My place in Campton is 5 miles north of Plymouth at exactly 1100'. Should get a nice dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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