MaineJayhawk Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 09Z srefs are still very bullish on qpf, Looks like the held serve on track +1 I would like a south shimmy to ensure nothing but snow falls, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I was just looking at that. Looks pretty far N relative to the SLP track, which is S of LI/ACK. This thing is going to have one hellacious front end dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 +1 I would like a south shimmy to ensure nothing but snow falls, however. Looks pretty darn sweet for you guys, just be glad the leaves are down that's a tree obliteration type snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 We’ve got them in the NNE thread, but I haven’t seen them posted here yet, so below are the BTV warnings and accumulations maps as of this morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 We’ve got them in the NNE thread, but I haven’t seen them posted here yet, so below are the BTV warnings and accumulations maps as of this morning: Underdone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 00z MM5 from stony brook Another 2-3 inches of rain in SNE..just what the dr ordered. Wettest year on rcord is a lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 This thing is going to have one hellacious front end dump. Looks pretty darn sweet for you guys, just be glad the leaves are down that's a tree obliteration type snow. A good 6hr thumping on the front end with some 1-3"/hr rates will do..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Underdone? I'm wondering, especially after the local model data that Powderfreak showed, but we'll get his thoughts and see how they update later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 Wow, 8-14 in the point. Looks like maybe 12 on this graphic. I'd take 4" and run, actually. Man the difference between GYX and BTV is night and day... you can clearly see where GYX's band of heavier 8-14" snows would continue westward into VT if they kept forecasting over there. Check out that 10.2" on the VT/NH border... BTV is forecasting 4.1" for that exact same spot (just on the VT side of the river) haha. You definitely want to be on the NH side of the CT River in this storm Its just an interesting comparison... I'm not one to care about it because the weather doesn't follow NWS forecasts, lol. I'll admit I do like the idea of sticking to the criteria and issuing an advisory if we don't average over 7" in 12 hours. Though with the rates in this storm quite a few spots will get that in central VT/NH/ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I made the comment last night, A lot on here will have 20%+ of there seasonal avg and 0" snowpack before december The nice thing is that almost all of New England will have seen a significant snowfall before T-Day. Take lots of pictures to carry you through a torchy start to December! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Underdone? Yeah, especially if you compare to what Gray has. Look at White River Junct, VT, they are under 3-5 inches according to Burlington, where just down the road, Lebanon, NH is under 10-14 from Gray. That makes me actually laugh out loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I was just looking at that. Looks pretty far N relative to the SLP track, which is S of LI/ACK. There is a sneaky warm layer aloft. That's kind of why I was still feeling areas maybe just north of IZG, but even down to the south...They are going to get a wicked front end thump before they flip to IP. We'll see what the 12z guidance does, because there is still wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Surface temps are better here on the nam as it looks like we don't get much above 32F here tomorow, 546 thickness down over york county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 Underdone? Ha! I was just posting and thinking about that.... I'm not all that sure. My expectations have been kept quite low for this system for some reason. I've been thinking 3-6" or 4-7" here in the village, 5-10" on the mountain but I'm also usually a bit conservative these days. I don't like blowing snowfall forecasts on the high side for the ski area. Much, MUCH better to be low and still considered correct. The only time you're really "wrong" is when you forecast too much snow. But BTV's forecast is definitely very low for central VT... Killington north to I-89 where it cuts through the Greens should be 8-12" I think. That would be a continuation of what GYX has in NH, but tapering it down a little bit as you head west. I was going to try to get to WFO BTV today and pick up some instruments for snowpack/liquid measurements at the ski resort from Greg Hanson the senior hydrologist... not sure I'm going to have time to get all the way over there. He was going to show me around the offices and such as we communicate so frequently in the winter (they love 5am obs from the mtn, haha weenies), it would be nice to put faces to names. Maybe I should go over there and play with the crayons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Surface temps are better here on the nam as it looks like we don't get much above 32F here tomorow, 546 thickness down over york county Beware the Scooter Sneaky Warm Layer Aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Surface temps are better here on the nam as it looks like we don't get much above 32F here tomorow, 546 thickness down over york county Seems a lock for you now. Copious moisture advecting now. Helluva travel day all around New England tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 Yeah, especially if you compare to what Gray has. Look at White River Junct, VT, they are under 3-5 inches according to Burlington, where just down the road, Lebanon, NH is under 10-14 from Gray. That makes me actually laugh out loud. Yeah its not even close... match the counties up and some of those spots differ by a full 6+" (I mean that's almost warning criteria snow difference right there). My only thing is I have great respect for BTV and they are usually right on the money so we will see how it plays out... I usually have no beef with them at all but this one made me curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Beware the Scooter Sneaky Warm Layer Aloft. lol, Does not look like it will make it here verbatium on the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 There is a sneaky warm layer aloft. That's kind of why I was still feeling areas maybe just north of IZG, but even down to the south...They are going to get a wicked front end thump before they flip to IP. We'll see what the 12z guidance does, because there is still wiggle room. srefs are hitting the area just n of izg the hardest on the snow probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Seems a lock for you now. Copious moisture advecting now. Helluva travel day all around New England tomorrow. Tell the wife your going to have the turkey on saturday and get up to SR.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 srefs are hitting the area just n of izg the hardest on the snow probs. jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Would love to be in Jackson Village, NH for this one where we stay every summer. That area is gonna be ground zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostman Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Beware the Scooter Sneaky Warm Layer Aloft. I wish MWN were about 5 degrees colder. 12F is good but anything above 14F and that sneaky layer of warm air is playing a role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 srefs are hitting the area just n of izg the hardest on the snow probs. Those definitely came a row of a few counties north in the last 24 hours... wasn't it you ETaunton that said yesterday you liked them but 20-50 miles north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 Yeah its not even close... match the counties up and some of those spots differ by a full 6+" (I mean that's almost warning criteria snow difference right there). My only thing is I have great respect for BTV and they are usually right on the money so we will see how it plays out... I usually have no beef with them at all but this one made me curious. Actually their AFD spells it out quite well... I skimmed this but guess I wasn't really reading or my comprehension skills are lacking BTV is going with more mixed precip cutting down on totals but does say they may upgrade to a Warning in some areas this afternoon. THIS SITUATION IS GOING TO SET UP WINTER WX EVENT FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. CD TEMPS AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP AFT MIDNGT WILL BEGIN AS SNOW...WITH EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN(MAINLY FOR THE ST LAW VALLEY). SE FLOW PICKING UP OVERNGT DUE TO RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL AID IN BRINGING SOME WARM AIR INTO THE AREA TOWARDS MORNING. UNTIL THEN REGION WILL SEE SNOW/SLEET ACCUM OF 1-3" VALLEY...AND 2-4" POTENTIAL OVER HIR ELEV. DUE TO THE ADDITION OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN INTO THE EQUATION FOR THIS EVENT...SOME OF THE TOTALS MAY BE LWR...BUT IMPACT ON ROAD CONDITIONS INCREASES. AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORY STARTING MIDNGT TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN ACCUM WILL BE IN ST LAW VALLEY WHERE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 430 AM EST TUESDAY...GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CONTINUE ALTHOUGH SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...BY SHIFTING WELL OFFSHORE BY WED NGT. DURING THIS TIME AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX INTO AREA AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE 30S ON SSE FLOW. NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS TO POTENTIAL FOR UPGRADE TO WINTER STORM WARNING. THE SETUP OF POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOWBAND OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY PROMPT AN INCR IN TOTALS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIR TRRN. FOR NOW UNSURE IF TOO MUCH WARM AIR WILL INTRUDE TO KEEP TOTALS AT BAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 srefs are hitting the area just n of izg the hardest on the snow probs. Right on the edge of good probabilities here. Oh, to be 30 miles further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I wish MWN were about 5 degrees colder. 12F is good but anything above 14F and that sneaky layer of warm air is playing a role. They are a great barometer, Are you on today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Tell the wife your going to have the turkey on saturday and get up to SR.... Oooh the temptress is still rattling my head. What is the start time for snow for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Actually their AFD spells it out quite well... I skimmed this but guess I wasn't really reading or my comprehension skills are lacking BTV is going with more mixed precip cutting down on totals but does say they may upgrade to a Warning in some areas this afternoon. THIS SITUATION IS GOING TO SET UP WINTER WX EVENT FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. CD TEMPS AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP AFT MIDNGT WILL BEGIN AS SNOW...WITH EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN(MAINLY FOR THE ST LAW VALLEY). SE FLOW PICKING UP OVERNGT DUE TO RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL AID IN BRINGING SOME WARM AIR INTO THE AREA TOWARDS MORNING. UNTIL THEN REGION WILL SEE SNOW/SLEET ACCUM OF 1-3" VALLEY...AND 2-4" POTENTIAL OVER HIR ELEV. DUE TO THE ADDITION OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN INTO THE EQUATION FOR THIS EVENT...SOME OF THE TOTALS MAY BE LWR...BUT IMPACT ON ROAD CONDITIONS INCREASES. AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORY STARTING MIDNGT TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN ACCUM WILL BE IN ST LAW VALLEY WHERE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 430 AM EST TUESDAY...GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CONTINUE ALTHOUGH SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...BY SHIFTING WELL OFFSHORE BY WED NGT. DURING THIS TIME AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX INTO AREA AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE 30S ON SSE FLOW. NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS TO POTENTIAL FOR UPGRADE TO WINTER STORM WARNING. THE SETUP OF POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOWBAND OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY PROMPT AN INCR IN TOTALS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIR TRRN. FOR NOW UNSURE IF TOO MUCH WARM AIR WILL INTRUDE TO KEEP TOTALS AT BAY. Ah OK, that is why they are so different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 The NAM is the furthest south I have seen yet with the surface low. Toward like TTN and then squished out south of LI to southeast of the Cape. In the winter I'd expect a good snow out of that track.... Those definitely came a row of a few counties north in the last 24 hours... wasn't it you ETaunton that said yesterday you liked them but 20-50 miles north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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