CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Man Dendrite is still on the edge. It looks like warming aloft proceeds nicely, but VVs ripping him a new one pretty much slow or stop it for about 3-4 hrs before moving ne again. Soundings look like snow until about 12z on the GFS for him and EEK. Mike and Eric are in a good spot it seems. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Soundings look like snow until about 12z on the GFS for him and EEK. Mike and Eric are in a good spot it seems. Enjoy. Should really rip like crazy around this time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Looks like perhaps a nudge south in guidance? That puts Dendrite over to Dryslot and I guess Ekster into some front end goodness. How does the 700-850 crit thickness look on the EC? It came in a bit cooler at 850.6z NAM is close too all snow here with only a 750mb layer that gets between 0-1C. GFS is warmer, but is decent snow for a few hours before pings/drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I don't htink there will be any flakes in MA (though the NAM clown map gave me 2" I think lol). Fortuantely, things will start early enough this evening to see if a T can be recorded. WRT the jackpot areas, it seems for the last several runs, it seems these have been pretty clearly identified. So, we send our congratulations to Powderfreak, Jeff, Eric, Dendrite and all the other weenies on that CNE/NNE region. Oh, to be in Bethel. Out of curiousity, what's your take that Bath, ME (my old stomping grounds) switches over to rain? I see their forecast is primarily snow with a 5-9" in their p/c. My experience up there is that in marginal situations, it's best to err on the taint side. 29.9/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I'm so close to the line on some models, but the SREFs get really warm near halfway into the event as they pass the H7 low through NNE. I think I'm looking at 2-4"/3-5" followed by some pings. The EC has the 850mb 0C at the NH/MA border at 36hr (12z tomorrow) with almost 1" QPF in C NH already so maybe I'll be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Just woke up to a winter storm warning. Very surprised to see that. Is that mostly for the northern half of my county or have things gotten better overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Wow, 8-14 in the point. Looks like maybe 12 on this graphic. I'd take 4" and run, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Wow, 8-14 in the point. Looks like maybe 12 on this graphic. I'd take 4" and run, actually. Nice--quite the cutoff at the immediate coast. Hence my earlier question about Bath. Mike--are you still in to give you opinion on whether they switch? To my earlier comment about flakes in MA--seems BOX is intent on keeping mixes here during tonight/tomorrow/and tomorrow night. No accums of course, but maybe I can record a couple of T's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Wow, 8-14 in the point. Looks like maybe 12 on this graphic. I'd take 4" and run, actually. Nice, id take 6.9 and run too. My zone forecast was 4-8 so well see. When I see Brian say 2-4/3-5 then pingers and drops and he's thirty miles north of me im not so sure. But at least I have a chance at some bonus snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 How does the 700-850 crit thickness look on the EC? It came in a bit cooler at 850. 6z NAM is close too all snow here with only a 750mb layer that gets between 0-1C. GFS is warmer, but is decent snow for a few hours before pings/drops. For some reason I can't post these maps, but you look fine until 11z or so. It may tip at 12z...but it is close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Nice--quite the cutoff at the immediate coast. Hence my earlier question about Bath. Mike--are you still in to give you opinion on whether they switch? Yeah, I'll be at work in downtown Portland tomorrow where it'll be a huge rainstorm but just on the other side on the turnpike it'll be ripping. Excellent commute home, I'd wager. I was telling the guys here at work who live near the coast that they might see some snow, but I wasn't expecting several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Here is 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I think parts of sw NH could start as snow and go over to ice before rain. A little surprised BOX is "meh" about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I think parts of sw NH could start as snow and go over to ice before rain. A little surprised BOX is "meh" about it. Well, you're talking about an area that's about as significant in people's minds as GC. If it weren't for the 6 posters between there and GC, we tend to be worth scarce a mention. Meanwhile, at the risk of grasping for straws--I suspect there's no hope for surprise web-bulbing or anything of that ilk to perhaps lend to a surprise accumulation? I think I'll get a taste of how Kevin feels when he's raining and ORH is racking of 2"/hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Well, you're talking about an area that's about as significant in people's minds as GC. If it weren't for the 6 posters between there and GC, we tend to be worth scarce a mention. Meanwhile, at the risk of grasping for straws--I suspect there's no hope for surprise web-bulbing or anything of that ilk to perhaps lend to a surprise accumulation? I think I'll get a taste of how Kevin feels when he's raining and ORH is racking of 2"/hr. Some of the SREFs had a little ZR for you. I wouldn't be shocked if you started out with a little snow...briefly. IN fact, you have a better shot than Pete because of your latitude. It may be that you get more IP or ZR...but I could see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Wow...what a surprise. In London now flying back this afternoon arriving early eve. Didn't expect to be under a WSW. GYX is hitting this very hard...they are usually not aggressive...calling for 6-10 at Laconia. They seem to thing the very dry cold air will cause strong evap cooling along with heavy precip rates...this is why they are going for so much snow. And they say it is a high confidence forecast. Would be something to have had 25-30 inches before Nov 25 in the warmest fall since I've lived up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Wow...what a surprise. In London now flying back this afternoon arriving early eve. Didn't expect to be under a WSW. GYX is hitting this very hard...they are usually not aggressive...calling for 6-10 at Laconia. They seem to thing the very dry cold air will cause strong evap cooling along with heavy precip rates...this is why they are going for so much snow. And they say it is a high confidence forecast. Would be something to have had 25-30 inches before Nov 25 in the warmest fall since I've lived up here... Congrats--hope you had a nice time in England. When will the new SREF's be available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Well, you're talking about an area that's about as significant in people's minds as GC. If it weren't for the 6 posters between there and GC, we tend to be worth scarce a mention. Meanwhile, at the risk of grasping for straws--I suspect there's no hope for surprise web-bulbing or anything of that ilk to perhaps lend to a surprise accumulation? I think I'll get a taste of how Kevin feels when he's raining and ORH is racking of 2"/hr. It's not a good feeling. So close yet so far..though i suspect you'll eek out an inch or 2 of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I still probably would hit sw NH a little harder, but jmho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Some of the SREFs had a little ZR for you. I wouldn't be shocked if you started out with a little snow...briefly. IN fact, you have a better shot than Pete because of your latitude. It may be that you get more IP or ZR...but I could see that. Thanks. I have 0 confidence on ZR. I don't think my surface will allow for that. WRT the latitude comment, BOX's forecasts all along their northern most MA zones have snow in at least two of the three periods of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Thanks. I have 0 confidence on ZR. I don't think my surface will allow for that. WRT the latitude comment, BOX's forecasts all along their northern most MA zones have snow in at least two of the three periods of the storm. It may be something where you wetbulb close to 32F. Either way, I think you start briefly as snow or IP. The only way you don't, is if this thing comes north at the last minute. It is possible...but I don't think brief sn and ip for you is a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 SE NH has an advisory as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 It may be something where you wetbulb close to 32F. Either way, I think you start briefly as snow or IP. The only way you don't, is if this thing comes north at the last minute. It is possible...but I don't think brief sn and ip for you is a long shot. He's gonna get 1-2 inches of snow as we've told him and continue to doubt us and then tomorrow post how surprised he was he got snow..Same story different day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 It's not a good feeling. So close yet so far..though i suspect you'll eek out an inch or 2 of snow I don't see that happening, but I like your support of such a thing. A key difference betwee your experiences with such things and mine is that I don't have a horde of posters within the 30 miles or so (is that your lattitude difference between the Mt. and ORH?) reporting snow observations while I rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 SE NH has an advisory as well. I'm really interested to see how it plays out there...going to be quite the insane gradient somewhere around the ma/nh border up to the CON area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 A key difference between a CNE/NNE storm vs. a SNE storm is the fact that 12 hours before hand for the CNE/NNE event there's only one new page of posts. For SNE they'd have needed to create a new thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Not sure why se nh has an advisory but sw nh doesn't. Is se nh gyx and sw nh box? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Not sure why se nh has an advisory but sw nh doesn't. Is se nh gyx and sw nh box? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Not sure why se nh has an advisory but sw nh doesn't. Is se nh gyx and sw nh box? It's gonna be messy I think in sw NH..esp near and above 1000ft as they could get some ZR on top of any snow, but we'll see what the 12z runs do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 When will the new SREF's be available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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