40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 That LES video was sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 No frozen gorund, No frozen lakes, Even when the snow comes, Snowmobile travel will be very limited up here unless we can get some sustained cold in here to lock things up Yep, and nothing is going to change that aside of sustained cold. Ski in March bro, take it from me, hundreds of runs in a week, no ants around. Day trips to the smaller MTns , tons of snow around, no worries. I think you are fretting too early, best I can tell around DEc 1 NNE will be in its normal mode. One or two snows and it's typical winter. I think that's what this year is going to bring and that's fine. The last three we skied so much in Dec Jan Feb we were mostly done by early March. This year I think it's going to be a more classic Jan-Apr season and we'll be ready for it. I do think things are going to be kind of far off, I know bookings are among the condo owners for December. It's hard for people to book rooms when it's 60. Still a ways to go...NNE gets its winter, no matter how much it sucks here Still felt odd to mow in a t shirt today You're still mowing? That's kind of a surprise. Well, I have skied since I was 3. I have worked as a ski instuctor, ski patroller, and a ski reporter. It is the rare year that x-mas week doesn't provide some decent coverage. I think we may well see a Winter with temps that average AOA normal but I believe that being close to a thermal battleground will provide many of us (at least interior elevated) with above normal snowfall. every year at this time we go through the hand wringing phase. Usually it's all for naught. We shall see, we shall see. It'll be fine, I just don't think it'll be what it's been the last 3 or so years Xmas week. IE, I'll be on a cruise checking the weather in ports for our MLK trip. I'm not convinced we see the change until Xmas this year in terms of more sustained cold. I refuse to mow after October 1st. It grows some and then gets stunted. If you keep mowing sure it'll keep growing slowly. Cold nights have killed it off decently now also. Plus some turf is good when the mud gets bad. I'll take a thrilling photo Monday but my lawn is greener now than at any time this summer. Late season feedings have something to do with that but it's been perfect lawn weather down here. Everything else is gonzo, but the lawns look great. I'm kind of surprised, I don't remember ever having a growing lawn this late here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 18z GFS and ensembles look pretty darn good to me. Still would like to see higher heights over Alaska. But the east-based +NAO going on is actually really good for us in my opinion. And of course the +PNA ridging that develops is looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 18z GFS and ensembles look pretty darn good to me. Still would like to see higher heights over Alaska. But the east-based +NAO going on is actually really good for us in my opinion. And of course the +PNA ridging that develops is looking good That's what I saw too but was told it was fleeting. IDK seems like a good change to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 18z GFS and ensembles look pretty darn good to me. Still would like to see higher heights over Alaska. But the east-based +NAO going on is actually really good for us in my opinion. And of course the +PNA ridging that develops is looking good It's still bad. Still looks like a +EPO to me. Shows no sign of leaving through 12/6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2011 Author Share Posted November 21, 2011 That's what I saw too but was told it was fleeting. IDK seems like a good change to me. It is on all the ensemble guidance. If it isn't that is nice...but I do not see a reason why that weird pattern would stick long term. Its not very stable and the MJO doesn't really want to keep high heights on the WC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 18z GFS and ensembles look pretty darn good to me. Still would like to see higher heights over Alaska. But the east-based +NAO going on is actually really good for us in my opinion. And of course the +PNA ridging that develops is looking good I felt like if you extrapolated the end of the ensemble run the pattern was reloading...after relenting for a time around day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I felt like if you extrapolated the end of the ensemble run the pattern was reloading...after relenting for a time around day 10. Yeah the vortex retrogrades a bit and we're able to bump up heights a bit on the WC. But the pattern still sucks and you're right is reloading. What we want to see is getting the tropical forcing to get into a favorable location to help bust up the awful Pacific. Even below normal heights in the NE would probably mean seasonable temps IMO with possibly a snow threat given more favorable long range pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Do the euro weeklies come out again tommorow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Yeah the vortex retrogrades a bit and we're able to bump up heights a bit on the WC. But the pattern still sucks and you're right is reloading. What we want to see is getting the tropical forcing to get into a favorable location to help bust up the awful Pacific. Even below normal heights in the NE would probably mean seasonable temps IMO with possibly a snow threat given more favorable long range pattern. When do you see the pattern changing to more favourable for the east for a longer period of time instaed of it being transiet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 That LES video was sick. It was, but I don't know why they stopped filming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 When do you see the pattern changing to more favourable for the east for a longer period of time instaed of it being transiet? Mid-late December? All depends on the tropical forcing and being able to disturb what is a remarkably stable and persistent atmospheric feature. Unfortunately the +AO and a very powerful vortex and night jet in the Arctic is probably going to preclude any sustained/extreme cold through the beginning of winter. Will have to wait for some type of stratospheric warming. Maybe this is the year we get a good March after an awful December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Not encouraging to see...note predicted vs. actual in the last few days.... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Not encouraging to see...note predicted vs. actual in the last few days.... http://www.cpc.ncep....a/pna.sprd2.gif Yeah...GEFS have been rushing that increasing PNA a bit.At least the people in Fairbanks are enjoying their early -30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2011 Author Share Posted November 21, 2011 Do the euro weeklies come out again tommorow? Yes they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Still only 11/20. Granted the first part of December will probably be above normal but Jimmy crack corn and I don't care. Late December winter begins. 1993. It will be PNA and EPO that deliver but not till later December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Still only 11/20. Granted the first part of December will probably be above normal but Jimmy crack corn and I don't care. Late December winter begins. 1993. It will be PNA and EPO that deliver but not till later December. From what I read today I thought it was Mid Jan, no frozen soil, never ending summer. Now even 5-7 days of normal to below are not good enough. The negativity is palatable. I mean it's true after the next three below days, the following 7 suck but it's possible the first week of Dec is normal or even below and it is also possible we get a wintry event in that week. Will the pattern reload? Possible. Will we see wavelengths change and climo set in, more probable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 From what I read today I thought it was Mid Jan, no frozen soil, never ending summer. Now even 5-7 days of normal to below are not good enough. The negativity is palatable. I mean it's true after the next three below days, the following 7 suck but it's possible the first week of Dec is normal or even below and it is also possible we get a wintry event in that week. Will the pattern reload? Possible. Will we see wavelengths change and climo set in, more probable. Kevin has taken over your keyboard! Yeah the pattern sucks but that's not to say we can't see a wintry threat. I'm not too worried about it. I don't need to have a December 1989 redux to be content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Yeah hopefully they can pull it off. It's a pretty brutal pattern initially. That said I've been skiing for 2 decades in Vermont and I'm not particularly enthusiastic about my trip around Christmas. May have to choose Stowe over Mt. Snow/Killington. That's what my family and I did in 06-07.. went to Jay and they ended up getting 15" of Jay-cloud snow over the 5 days we were there which made things a bit more interesting. Only time I've ever been to Jay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2011 Author Share Posted November 21, 2011 Kevin has taken over your keyboard! Yeah the pattern sucks but that's not to say we can't see a wintry threat. I'm not too worried about it. I don't need to have a December 1989 redux to be content. Yeah. I'm always looking for reasons to root for snow and cold, but this pattern just stinks if you like both. We can still possibly get a snow event but any major cold is not looking like a possibility until we change this longer wave global pattern. A temporary little PNA spike (should it even happen) is like a band aid on a gunshot wound as I used the same analogy before. It might for a brief period make things look better, but its not the type of pattern we want to get multiple chances and build snow pack. I'll still be looking out for any possible snow events trying to sneak through the cracks...I will always look for those. But since we have no ability to do that in this time range, all we can say is the general pattern stinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Kevin has taken over your keyboard! Yeah the pattern sucks but that's not to say we can't see a wintry threat. I'm not too worried about it. I don't need to have a December 1989 redux to be content. Me either, 89 sucked actually.froze my balls off working on the Thames outside, never ending wind. One crappy Dec 15th storm then winter was ovah. Jerry's 93/94 would satiate me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I'll want mid-winter cold eventually, but right now, who cares. I just want an event to track. Hopefully that Dec 2-5 time frame delivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Yeah. I'm always looking for reasons to root for snow and cold, but this pattern just stinks if you like both. We can still possibly get a snow event but any major cold is not looking like a possibility until we change this longer wave global pattern. A temporary little PNA spike (should it even happen) is like a band aid on a gunshot wound as I used the same analogy before. It might for a brief period make things look better, but its not the type of pattern we want to get multiple chances and build snow pack. I'll still be looking out for any possible snow events trying to sneak through the cracks...I will always look for those. But since we have no ability to do that in this time range, all we can say is the general pattern stinks. Yup... well said. Even a weak +PNA with such nasty low heights over AK we're still going to be blasting warm air into northwest Canada. The Arctic just looks bad too. This is one of those patterns where we're rooting for an "average" type of setup that sticks around for a couple days. Good luck on getting any sustained or meaningful north Atlantic blocking either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Yup... well said. Even a weak +PNA with such nasty low heights over AK we're still going to be blasting warm air into northwest Canada. The Arctic just looks bad too Ryan, what do you mean by NW Canada? The NW territories? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Just back from a 2 mile dog walk. I heard a renegade cricket chirping. This really does remind me of January 2007 when the cherry blossoms bloomed and then were frozen in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Just back from a 2 mile dog walk. I heard a renegade cricket chirping. This really does remind me of January 2007 when the cherry blossoms bloomed and then were frozen in February. Cept it's only Nov 20. I swear that Oct storm has altered perception this year( not yours) short memories of a T day last year with bugs and frisbee playing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Epic warmth next weekend on the GFS. After that not sure what to make of the monster cut-off that develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 that might be the worst run of the GFS i've seen. Vortex holds tough for the 16days. Good thing it's the op gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 that might be the worst run of the GFS i've seen. Vortex holds tough for the 16days. Good thing it's the op gfs. Got support from the 18z GFS ensembles and even the euro ensembles to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 The pattern change 12/10 and us complete 12/25. Good night folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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