weathafella Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 But even those aren't a given..especially out this way. We are all thinking mid month or so...give it take 5 days. I wouldn't be shocked if it is after mid month. Man you must have a verification score at stake with these comments The guidance is certainly improving! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Man you must have a verification score at stake with these comments The guidance is certainly improving! LOL..all of his posts lately have been negative...never letting anyone get excited or looking forward to a change..All caution..all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Man you must have a verification score at stake with these comments The guidance is certainly improving! No, I just mean I think we (people in this forum) are thinking around mid month or so, hopefully. The euro ensembles so far seem like they would fit the week 3 weekly composite if rolled forward. This is a dangerous thing to do, but they don't seem like they would be terribly different as it looks right now. If that's the case, then by mid month or so, we may see some big changes. Obviously that's a long time in modeling....but I think that timeframe seems reasonable..maybe a hair later. Of course we can sneak a couple of storms in here possibly, especially if the PNA can go positive, but it may also mean a warm up right afterwards. I wouldn't normally consider that a change to a wintry regime in December, but it may also signal the end to these true torches, if it happens. It's the usual yo-yo type stuff we deal with before the hammer drops. I also would not be shocked if early December trends a bit warmer in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 LOL..all of his posts lately have been negative...never letting anyone get excited or looking forward to a change..All caution..all the time Well, someone has to drop the reality hammer. Will and Ryan have done the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Nice posts in here, Scooter. I agree with what you are thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Well, someone has to drop the reality hammer. Will and Ryan have done the same. Ryan def has..but he always does that even in agreat pattern he finds things to complain about. Will at least offers hopes of a few winter events and cold shots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Ryan def has..but he always does that even in agreat pattern he finds things to complain about. Will at least offers hopes of a few winter events and cold shots I did too...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Nice posts in here, Scooter. I agree with what you are thinking. Thanks, Adam. Hopefully we can get some action in early December, but I feel it may not be until mid month (give or take) for some true changes. But any snow, is better than no snow..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 But in Jerry's defense, it is slowly improving. We are seeing that vortex back up just enough to try and pop a ridge in western Canada. Step 1 in improving. That's why earlier I mentioned that it is a good thing that we haven't regressed on the models, so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Well you know my mantra and it appears in synch with what most are thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Well you know my mantra and it appears in synch with what most are thinking. 12/15-12/25 i got that date range written on my hand with a pen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 well can hope the gfs ensembles are on to something out toward days 12-16 or whatever...that would at least eliminate these god awful +10 to +20 days. euro looks like garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 It's a shot in the dark, but the euro op and ensembles want to stall the cold front next week, with a low riding up along it. In this mundane pattern, it may be something to watch, but it's a very low prob right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Well, someone has to drop the reality hammer. Will and Ryan have done the same. For Will to be so cautious tells me it is what it is in this pattern. 2-3 week progs can change for the better or for the worse. A couple of weeks ago most indicated it was going to start getting colder now, not in 3 weeks. That said only about 1 in 3 Xmas's are white in Boston. This time last year the newspapers were writing "The calendar says Dec. 15 — just 10 more shopping days — and snowflakes remain scarce in Southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley. "We've gathered our book ... one out of three chance," National Weather Service meteorologist Eleanor Vallier-Talbot said yesterday. But that's Boston, based on historical records. "You can look at the probabilities based on previous records," Vallier-Talbot said. Around North Andover and Lawrence, the chances improve. About 40 percent to 45 percent. Derry has about a 50 percent to 60 percent chance for a white Christmas. The weather service is keeping an eye on a possible coastal storm. Is snow on the way? "No snow for you guys this weekend," she said. It looks more like something southern New England will have to fret. But it's still early. Depends on lots of variables, including the storm's track." A lot can and will happen in the next few weeks and last year goes to show how quickly the pattern can flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Well, it can still be a little above normal and still produce frozen precip....but it does not seem like there is much in terms of trackable events (other than Wednesday's cold rain) I like how Kevin covers all of his bases. Proper sales weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 For Will to be so cautious tells me it is what it is in this pattern. 2-3 week progs can change for the better or for the worse. A couple of weeks ago most indicated it was going to start getting colder now, not in 3 weeks. That said only about 1 in 3 Xmas's are white in Boston. This time last year the newspapers were writing "The calendar says Dec. 15 — just 10 more shopping days — and snowflakes remain scarce in Southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley. "We've gathered our book ... one out of three chance," National Weather Service meteorologist Eleanor Vallier-Talbot said yesterday. But that's Boston, based on historical records. "You can look at the probabilities based on previous records," Vallier-Talbot said. Around North Andover and Lawrence, the chances improve. About 40 percent to 45 percent. Derry has about a 50 percent to 60 percent chance for a white Christmas. The weather service is keeping an eye on a possible coastal storm. Is snow on the way? "No snow for you guys this weekend," she said. It looks more like something southern New England will have to fret. But it's still early. Depends on lots of variables, including the storm's track." A lot can and will happen in the next few weeks and last year goes to show how quickly the pattern can flip. pfffft.... what do they know... Reading through last year's pattern change threads is very similar. Mets being cautious (a bit more optimistic), weenies jumping and toasting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 12/15-12/25 i got that date range written on my hand with a pen It's jerry's 9-9-9 plan. 38.5/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 pfffft.... what do they know... Reading through last year's pattern change threads is very similar. Mets being cautious (a bit more optimistic), weenies jumping and toasting... The only thing that's bothering me about a change right now is that the guys that fully understand the mumbo-jumbo that is true long range pattern forecasting now seem to be hedging a bit here and elsewhere. That makes me wonder if they're seeing things in the connections that aren't providing positive signs for a change like they thought a week ago. Aside of the cold shot around the 5th it looks to me like the pattern is just reloading with lows shooting across into Hudsons Bay. That said if we can make some hay with that system prior...what's there to complain about? It's not going to be 2010-11 winter again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I love watching kevin go through weather suffer. Almost makes me want the pattern to continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 The only thing that's bothering me about a change right now is that the guys that fully understand the mumbo-jumbo that is true long range pattern forecasting now seem to be hedging a bit here and elsewhere. That makes me wonder if they're seeing things in the connections that aren't providing positive signs for a change like they thought a week ago. Aside of the cold shot around the 5th it looks to me like the pattern is just reloading with lows shooting across into Hudsons Bay. That said if we can make some hay with that system prior...what's there to complain about? It's not going to be 2010-11 winter again. Yeah... looks like it will be a later start, although in some areas, 2010-2011 didn't really begin until Boxing Day. I would not mind a late December-March (or April? I did ok last April) season. Kevin will chime in that March is not winter anymore. I am trying to understand the MJO connection and how it affects things up here. I wish there was a MJO for Dummies site. What I have been trying to read (mostly papers) is so far over my head... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Yeah... looks like it will be a later start, although in some areas, 2010-2011 didn't really begin until Boxing Day. I would not mind a late December-March (or April? I did ok last April) season. Kevin will chime in that March is not winter anymore. I am trying to understand the MJO connection and how it affects things up here. I wish there was a MJO for Dummies site. What I have been trying to read (mostly papers) is so far over my head... I don't think it's all that difficult to understand and the guys do a good job of explaining it here....I just have no interest! Weather will do what it wants to do and 15 day forecasting is very far from accurate at this point. I think all of these guys can accurately say if "xyz happens" that'll change this index and downstream the weather will get colder here. The problem is we're still relying on models to tell us roughly what'll happen in that extended timeframe which can still have big errors and always tend to rush changes. My total guess is the GFS towards 384 isn't showing much of a sign of change at all. We get a quick opportunity than another big low gets ready in the Gulf of AK. We're still 3-6 days away from even being able to see the potential changes around the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 pfffft.... what do they know... Reading through last year's pattern change threads is very similar. Mets being cautious (a bit more optimistic), weenies jumping and toasting... That's because the pattern was better than what is shown now. We did not have this massive vortex in AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Nice looking Euro run last night for the week after the holiday weekend.. That is a nice wintry pattern..Big changes Strongly agree. Any cold would be transient for the east, HOWEVER, the Euro is showing a significant pattern change for the Plains IMO. The evolution of the synoptic scale features suggests that troughiness in the center of the nation becomes a more permanent feature, as disturbance dig along the lee of the Rockies, and ridging wave breaks upstream. This is a very wintry pattern for them, and is the beginning of changes for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Yeah... looks like it will be a later start, although in some areas, 2010-2011 didn't really begin until Boxing Day. I would not mind a late December-March (or April? I did ok last April) season. Kevin will chime in that March is not winter anymore. I am trying to understand the MJO connection and how it affects things up here. I wish there was a MJO for Dummies site. What I have been trying to read (mostly papers) is so far over my head... We don't have a complete understanding of it either. The MJO isn't something where just because it's in phase xyz, you get a certain result. The signal can be all messed up during transition times of the year. I think it works best during summer and winter. However, the principles behind it are there. The downstream effects of the latent heat released from convection, build ridges. Now in the winter and summer when we don't have crazy cutoff lows and all sorts of shorter wavelengths, it is much easier to forecast how everything will be teleconnected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 And latent heat is a fancy term for the heat released from condensation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 That's because the pattern was better than what is shown now. We did not have this massive vortex in AK. Massive and persistent. On the positive side the Deadliest Catch should have some incredible footage from King Crab season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Massive and persistent. On the positive side the Deadliest Catch should have some incredible footage from King Crab season. Ha, probably. It will come around. It's slowly trying and if it waits until mid month or so..climo gets better for you and I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 well can hope the gfs ensembles are on to something out toward days 12-16 or whatever...that would at least eliminate these god awful +10 to +20 days. euro looks like garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Ha, probably. It will come around. It's slowly trying and if it waits until mid month or so..climo gets better for you and I. Oscillations may be the name of the game this winter. Once we get the change somewhere between the 15th and 1st of January I hope it can hang tough for at least a few weeks. I kind of think we'll see 2 week halftime shows all winter. Call it the J Lo winter...lots of curves up and down with tons of junk in the trunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Oscillations may be the name of the game this winter. Once we get the change somewhere between the 15th and 1st of January I hope it can hang tough for at least a few weeks. I kind of think we'll see 2 week halftime shows all winter. Call it the J Lo winter...lots of curves up and down with tons of junk in the trunk. But dam she looks good. Hopefully the winter will too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.