CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Give me EPO and PNA and the NAO can kiss my arse. I agree. The funny thing is that a -NAO would do wonders for us right now. Like a pinball machine, it would take its arm and push the cold south from eastern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Great story Jerry. The Cowboys analogy reminds me.... In their first season as an expansion team...1960, my father scored Giants tickets.....4 for my friend and I and our dads. They were playing the 0-7 Cowboys and the Giants were rollling in the heyday of Tittle to Shofner. It was 12/4/60 and about 70 degrees. As an 8th grade weenie, I was downcast. We had some good cold early but the prior several weeks were torch city. The game ended up in a 28-28 tie and the Giants season kind of went downhill from there. 1 week later I awoke with warnings (unexpected at bed time) and temperatures dropping in the face of a north wind. My mother dragged me out of bed and handed me the pushbroom to sweep the garage of the buildup of oak leaves. I loved it as it was north facing and I watched the cirrus gather and lower. I go with her to pick up stuff from the deli for relatives coming over in the afternoon. Both of these relatives were NYC teachers...more on that in a moment. I was excited for winter again! I flip on the Giants-Redskins game and it was snowing very hard with Shoftner ending up in a snowbank on one of his receptions. Snow begain for me around 3 and it was light. Temperatures at that point were around 18-20 and the street of course whitened up quickly. I boldly called that NYC would close schools the next day and was ridiculed by the teacher relatives because it hadn't happened since WW2! Snow remained light and the people left. Around 9 it picked up and by 11 it was ripping. One of the great blizzards of my life and entry vouz of one of the all time great winters. Keep the faith folks...it's coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 After Sunday this pattern is over .. It may not be cold and wintry everyday,, but the pattern of torch will be over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 00z EC and EC ensembles have a slightly negative west NAO for days 9 and 10...hopefully that works out. Teleconnection forecasts have been awful, but it would be nice to get the NAO down from where it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 After Sunday this pattern is over .. It may not be cold and wintry everyday,, but the pattern of torch will be over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Teleconnection forecasts have been awful, but it would be nice to get the NAO down from where it is now. I thought the op looked awfully interesting at day 10...with that storm and some blocking...but it's the op model at day 10... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Alot of cold progged in eastern Canada. I agree Scott....NAO and we'd be shoveling Wednesday but alas...not now. But the sign of the gradient pattern once we get cooperation from the Pacific? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 DT close to pulling the plug on Dec. : http://www.wxrisk.com/2011/11/not-as-warm-as-it-has-been-not-the-same-thing-as-cold/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 That could be the all time cutoff on the GFS. Is this March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 That could be the all time cutoff on the GFS. Is this March? I hope it doesn't develop...all set with 60* dps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 That could be the all time cutoff on the GFS. Is this March? Raw ocean winds here FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I hope it doesn't develop...all set with 60* dps. The good news is the superior model is backing off this idea. Hopefully the 12z continues that trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 That could be the all time cutoff on the GFS. Is this March? That low just sits and rots away over the upper midwest, That would suck if that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 wow...that is a crazy crazy evolution on the GFS with that cutoff...not really in complete model fantasy land either. sort of the cusp between "it's the GFS at day 7" and "model la-la-land" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 That could be the all time cutoff on the GFS. Is this March? great landfalling hurricane pattern lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I'll go with the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I'll go with the EURO. Yes, Everytime.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Long long term 300+ hours we're seeing big shifts in the GFS...big low up over Hudsons Bay now versus not much of anything. Flow now more into SE AK versus straight into the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 nice lake-effect pattern for those going to that bills game... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Long long term 300+ hours we're seeing big shifts in the GFS...big low up over Hudsons Bay now versus not much of anything. Flow now more into SE AK versus straight into the NW. Short lived, low is back at the end of the run. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Short lived, low is back at the end of the run. Good times. The pattern change begins 12/10 and is complete 12/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Not a very impressive vortex in AK at 384 hrs. No resounding return.... Short lived, low is back at the end of the run. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Not a very impressive vortex in AK at 384 hrs. No resounding return.... About 15-20mb weaker than what is there today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Euro also has a cutoff look too at that time frame and tries to bring a low along a stalled front, albeit well offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Euro also has a cutoff look too at that time frame and tries to bring a low along a stalled front, albeit well offshore. I saw that.... about 100 miles west and it's clip city! hey, would anyone be opposed to my starting a new thread as sort of a part II on this one...? i wanted to add statement this morning (i'm on vaca this week. yipeee!) but don't want to if it will be lost in the din of 65 pages of waxing nostalgia over woe-is-us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I saw that.... about 100 miles west and it's clip city! hey, would anyone be opposed to my starting a new thread as sort of a part II on this one...? i wanted to add statement this morning (i'm on vaca this week. yipeee!) but don't want to if it will be lost in the din of 65 pages of waxing nostalgia over woe-is-us. Go for it John. This thread is over 1000 posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 12z gefs has a nicer look to it as we enter the 1st week of december. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 12z gefs has a nicer look to it as we enter the 1st week of december. Much nicer. Hopefully the other guidance and weeklies follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Much nicer. Hopefully the other guidance and weeklies follow. that would at least be climo. LOL. a lot more ridging out west and into the adjacent pacific waters. i'd welcome that look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 that would at least be climo. LOL. a lot more ridging out west and into the adjacent pacific waters. i'd welcome that look The one thing that sticks out in my mind, is how strong the PV is up by AK. It's basically from the surface to the Stratosphere right now..lol. I think the AO will remain positive for a while to come. I guess in my mind, I think we are just going to have to hope the vortex retrogrades enough to pop some ridging in the western NAMR. I just don't see that vortex breaking down quick enough, so we should root for it to at least retrograde. I would love for it to vanish because even if it retrogrades, it is in a very precarious position to redevelop or move back east. Hopefully this thing just spins itself out by mid to late month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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