weatherwiz Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 FOK was 26F and started as rain...they're 42F now. With ORH at 32F most of those 20s in far SNE shouldn't last long once the clouds move in and radiate some longwave back down. It looks like winds pick up and mix the cold out pretty quickly once the mid level OVC layer moves in. There will probably be some slippery spots here and there, but I'll ban myself if this ends up a significant icing event. Dec 08 was a completely different beast and shouldn't even have been brought up in comparison to the next 12 hours. Temps really have began to spike, now well into the mid 30's across a good portion of southern CT. HFD up to 29F and BDL jumped from 23F to 26F from last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 FOK was 26F and started as rain...they're 42F now. With ORH at 32F most of those 20s in far SNE shouldn't last long once the clouds move in and radiate some longwave back down. It looks like winds pick up and mix the cold out pretty quickly once the mid level OVC layer moves in. There will probably be some slippery spots here and there, but I'll ban myself if this ends up a significant icing event. Dec 08 was a completely different beast and shouldn't even have been brought up in comparison to the next 12 hours. Dec '08 had very intense low level cold just off the sfc...it was really cold at 900-925mb in that one. Most of our bad icing events are like that which is why most icing events in SNE have some elevation dependency to them. This setup has extremely thin cold air layer. Some of the more sheltered spots should see a few hours of icing, but its doubtful it ends up anything more than a nuisance if people are smart enough not to drive on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Dec '08 had very intense low level cold just off the sfc...it was really cold at 900-925mb in that one. Most of our bad icing events are like that which is why most icing events in SNE have some elevation dependency to them. This setup has extremely thin cold air layer. Some of the more sheltered spots should see a few hours of icing, but its doubtful it ends up anything more than a nuisance if people are smart enough not to drive on it. You've definitely done a lot of research on that event so I consider you the expert on it. We had a lot of cold/dry air advecting in from ME as the precip continued to stream in. I think ORH had gusts near 25KT out of the NE before the ASOS crapped the bed. These in-situ cold events like tonight just don't last long once the glazing starts. That little bit of latent heating from the glazing always seems to push the lower elevations to that 32-34F mark quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Speaking of anniv threads...aren't we on the 2nd year of that morning? What a crazy night that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 BDR is already up to 37 with -RN...even OXC is up to 32F and should go above freezing soon as the clouds/precip approach. I was amazed at how fast the airmass warmed here in NYC metro suburbs. My car was totally frosted when I got out of the coffee shop at 11pm, could barely see through the windshield while driving home. Now it's 40F and raining lightly. The warmth really gets to you fast in this system so I don't think anyone should be optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 You've definitely done a lot of research on that event so I consider you the expert on it. We had a lot of cold/dry air advecting in from ME as the precip continued to stream in. I think ORH had gusts near 25KT out of the NE before the ASOS crapped the bed. These in-situ cold events like tonight just don't last long once the glazing starts. That little bit of latent heating from the glazing always seems to push the lower elevations to that 32-34F mark quickly. Yeah we had a sustained influx of lower dewpoints which helped evap cooling offset latent heat release....without that, you get the death obs of 32.1F and rain pretty quickly from latent heat feedback. The unique part about Dec '08 was that the sfc itself wasn't that cold, but when you look at soundings and just from memory alone, it was really cold just aloft in the first couple thousand to 2500 feet before it started to warm again. But given the dry air advecting from the northeast, we were able to sustain 30-31F icing for 12+ hours and I'm sure the good cold just aloft helped super cool the water droplets nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 BDR is already up to 37 with -RN...even OXC is up to 32F and should go above freezing soon as the clouds/precip approach. I was amazed at how fast the airmass warmed here in NYC metro suburbs. My car was totally frosted when I got out of the coffee shop at 11pm, could barely see through the windshield while driving home. Now it's 40F and raining lightly. The warmth really gets to you fast in this system so I don't think anyone should be optimistic. nothing about the PAC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 nothing about the PAC? Enjoy the rain sent from our best friend, the strong La Niña. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Enjoy the rain sent from our best friend, the strong La Niña. I unlike most people here don't mind the warmth and rain in the winter. If it's not going to snow, I'd rather it be 40-50 every day until April. Way too much frustration and emotion involved lately, it's pretty comical, I won't mention names... Reminds me of the style of fits JI throws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I unlike most people here don't mind the warmth and rain in the winter. If it's not going to snow, I'd rather it be 40-50 every day until April. Meh, I am pretty devoted to arctic cold and heavy snow...January 2009 was the best month ever at Middlebury I like to call a spade a spade though, and this pattern ain't getting it done. We need a proverbial reshuffling of the deck this December. I am curious about the Day 8/9 event although the ridging out west looks a little flat which might be causing the current solutions to be too far off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Meh, I am pretty devoted to arctic cold and heavy snow...January 2009 was the best month ever at Middlebury I like to call a spade a spade though, and this pattern ain't getting it done. We need a proverbial reshuffling of the deck this December. I am curious about the Day 8/9 event although the ridging out west looks a little flat which might be causing the current solutions to be too far off the coast. I think that is everyones first choice, however not working out this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 28.5 here , 18.3 four miles south of here Merrimack @ 205' ASL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Looks like IJD and BDL are freezing rain to start. Shouldn't last too long, but could be some glazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Looks like IJD and BDL are freezing rain to start. Shouldn't last too long, but could be some glazing. I'll need to go through the thread to catch up a whole lot. But--temp on the hill has been coming up. Was at 26.2 shortly after midnight and am now at 29.7. Seems that's been the case for several locations in Central/Western Mass. I wonder if they are also on hill-tops. Will, is that just a case of warmer air infiltrating there? Suspect wintry will be short-lived in these locations. Meanwhile, I'm surrounded by low-mid 20's with a few faleks flying and a little bit of new snow on the ground. Animals are boarding the ark as I type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 31F now, but rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 29.9/25. Unless there's a bit of evap cooling, any wintry prec will be driven from the ground temps. I'm coming off 240 + straight hrs of sub 30*, 54 consecutive hrs of sub 20*. Not sure how much effect yesterdays 5 hrs of above freezing (hit 36) might have to hurt things in that regard. 30.0/25 snow. Beautiful, big-ass flakes. Maybe I can get the 2" side of the advisory accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 28/28, actually some VERY light snow falling. Wont last long though should turn to zr and shorthly after heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Here's a disconnect: BOX for western Franklin: NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH... BECOMING EAST 15 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. ALY for neighboring Berkshire and neighboring Windham: SOUTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 28/28, actually some VERY light snow falling. Wont last long though should turn to zr and shorthly after heavy rain I'm now going with Unknown prec. Sounds like IP, but stepped out and there's nothing bouncing. In fact, almost appears that nothings coming down. Perhpas it's zr and the sound is of it hitting the frozen ground. 29.9/26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 29.9/25. Unless there's a bit of evap cooling, any wintry prec will be driven from the ground temps. I'm coming off 240 + straight hrs of sub 30*, 54 consecutive hrs of sub 20*. Not sure how much effect yesterdays 5 hrs of above freezing (hit 36) might have to hurt things in that regard. 30.0/25 snow. Beautiful, big-ass flakes. Maybe I can get the 2" side of the advisory accumulations. As we thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 29.9 here, still 21-22 in the valley areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 29.9 here, still 21-22 in the valley areas. Looks like a lot of fairly rapid warming is taking place in elevated areas in western and central areas. 30/27 here, 30.0 in Goshen, 30.0 in Chester. In the CT Valley, I see it's warming but still cool (28 Greenfield, 25 Montague). Warming a little slower in some of the valley sites west of the river, but even there they're coming up. Unless we have snow (which at the moment is not the case) or have the residual frozen ground cause zr, this will be disapopinting on the wintry side of things. I suspect the cold ground will work for a hwile to keep rain freezing, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 30/27 here. In the CT Valley, I see it's warming but still cool (28 Greenfield, 25 Montague). Other locations here west of the valley, up to 30.0 at Goshen, 29.8 in Goshen. Unless we have snow (which at the moment is not the case) or have the residual frozen ground cause zr, this will be disapopinting on the wintry side of things. I suspect the cold ground will work for a hwile to keep rain freezing, though. Well if you had any expectations it will be dissapointing. I think there was only a slight chance of anything interesting on the winter side from this storm. 30.0 and started as zr here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 only 23 up here and colder actually in concord. seems like we will get some frozen as the precip is close. would be nice for a a couple of hours of snow to set a mood, walk the dog, enjoy the tree set up last night...before the deluge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 My daughters are flying out of BDL later this afternoon. Probably have a bumpy ride out of the region. I wonder what the flight delays situaiton is today with the scope of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 must be pockets of pretty slick conditions in the valleys. i'm just going to sit back and wait for my 60 knot gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 must be pockets of pretty slick conditions in the valleys. i'm just going to sit back and wait for my 60 knot gusts. I'll watch the snow/ice from the last two days quickly wash away and perhaps see the leafless branches sway a little in my 30mph gusts. 30.2/27 Edit; just noticed my p/c is calling for 1-3" of rain today, 1-2" tonight. I do find the qpf forecasts one of the least useful aspects of the p/c forecasts. All I'll really take from that is that there's going to be a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Man is it icy out there. Walked out to get the paper..not only are the bricks iced,,but entire driveway is ice and rd is ice where they didn't salt from the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 must be pockets of pretty slick conditions in the valleys. i'm just going to sit back and wait for my 60 knot gusts. What do you think about the winds? Looks like a pretty good inversion to me, but hopefully we get a fine line of convection or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Some thunder coming? Impressive winds here and it is raining-all surfaces are covered with rain, we've got puddles of water too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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