baroclinic_instability Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Green Bay Forecast Discussion: Anyone else see this problem happening? Depends on where it is. Low level moistening can always be an issue, especially under strong return flow as they suggest. In other words, the air mass in the low levels is originating from a surface high which itself originates from subsiding air...which is dry. Models can underestimate this if the subsidence is stronger than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 Wow, I was basically starting to write this thing off late last night. That's two storms in a row I wrote off too early. Guess that's why I'm not a met lol. Anyway, this is starting to look like a pretty scary situation for many parts of the Midwest. I'm becoming much more concerned with the wind than anything else at this point. With 40-60mph wind gusts there is a high likelihood of at least scattered power outages. That combined with very cold air roaring in will make any prolonged periods without power somewhat dangerous with the loss of home heating ability. Repair crews would likely have a hard time getting out to locations in a timely manner to repair things as well. That crossed my mind...I guess the saving grace is that it's not fall (no leaves) and a lot of the snow will be powdery, though I imagine there could still be some scattered issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Ah, you are in EP. Wondering where you were from. I was born there, now in Shaktown. quite the migration. but yeah, far west end of e.p. luckily, i'll be back by wed. evening to enjoy some of this. glad to see active posters from the twin cities now. i felt awfully lonely the last several years. i'm just watching local stations' online tv forecast vids and wishing i was home. for verification's sake afterwards: as of now, looks like 'cco has 12-16+, kstp at 10-14, kare11 with 7-14, and fox9 at 10-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cromartie Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 How much for Saukville? LOL, jk. Figured I would join the party, if you'll let me. Channel 12 going with rain/snow mix, little snow on backside here with a high of 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 That crossed my mind...I guess the saving grace is that it's not fall (no leaves) and a lot of the snow will be powdery, though I imagine there could still be some scattered issues. Very true. I think for the most part we'll be okay, but if numerous gusts above 55mph become a reality then those issues will arise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Very true. I think for the most part we'll be okay, but if numerous gusts above 55mph become a reality then those issues will arise. Don't forget the freezing rain and/or flash freeze potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 quite the migration. but yeah, far west end of e.p. luckily, i'll be back by wed. evening to enjoy some of this. glad to see active posters from the twin cities now. i felt awfully lonely the last several years. i'm just watching local stations' online tv forecast vids and wishing i was home. for verification's sake afterwards: as of now, looks like 'cco has 12-16+, kstp at 10-14, kare11 with 7-14, and fox9 at 10-14 Should be a nice gradient that sets up over the cities not only due to the deformation/trowal band but snow factors with the thermal gradient rather strong over the cities. Twin Cities lucky this is over the weekend...would be grid-lock otherwise. Not that I really care, but Paul Douglas earlier was calling for 2 feet on his blog. Yeah, good to know there is another TC native on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 LOT being very aggressive with the winds for Sunday...they've got gusts up to 55 mph in the ZFP for a few counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 LOT being very aggressive with the winds for Sunday...they've got gusts up to 55 mph in the ZFP for a few counties. This storm is going to be brutally efficient with horizontal momentum transport with such extreme cold air advection, I don't blame them. Vertical shear will also play a significant role in developing eddies since the low level wind fields are so ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Surface low appears to be South a bit on surface charts from where it was progged. I think this has some surprises up its sleeve for my area thru Chicago. I wouldn't be shocked to see places around here end up with at least 4-6" of snow and maybe a few places up to 8". FWIW the 18z RGEM keeps the QC and northern Illinois areas firmly in the snow from late Saturday on, with no dry slot intrusion. It's the 18z RGEM, but still kind of gives you an idea of the potential. Chicagoland is looking more and more likely that they will miss the dry slot. If that happens then I would think amounts of 8" or more would be a distinct possibility. The 18z GFS suggested this as well. The new 00z runs could get extremely interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 00z RUC is taking more steps south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 00z RUC is taking more steps south What web site are you using for this model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 What web site are you using for this model? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/00zruc.html http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Major spread the wealth storm shaping up. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Guess it's coming over STL...or maybe Cape G. When is the trend going to stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Should be a nice gradient that sets up over the cities not only due to the deformation/trowal band but snow factors with the thermal gradient rather strong over the cities. Twin Cities lucky this is over the weekend...would be grid-lock otherwise. Not that I really care, but Paul Douglas earlier was calling for 2 feet on his blog. Yeah, good to know there is another TC native on here. Wouldn't they know how to handle the snow considering their yearly average? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Sounds like areas along the lakes get screwed. (Wisconsin side)... MKE saying no accumulations tomorrow. Although it turns to snow Sat nite... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Sounds like areas along the lakes get screwed. (Wisconsin side)... MKE saying no accumulations tomorrow. They need to revise their forecast considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Sounds like areas along the lakes get screwed. (Wisconsin side)... MKE saying no accumulations tomorrow. They are most likely stating that for the day....overnight I think they will get snow, and as someone pointed out the RUC is trending south....if the incoming NAM does the same the entire event may be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Guess it's coming over STL...or maybe Cape G. When is the trend going to stop. no time to post maps but check the 21sref on ncep....closed low goes over n. ky. broad 996 centered over ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 00z RUC is taking more steps south yep its even more SW then the 18z GFS at 18z SAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 NAM 12hr over n ia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 MPX just bumped up overnight totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Extreme E. IA at hour 18 according to tombo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 no time to post maps but check the 21sref on ncep....closed low goes over n. ky. broad 996 centered over ohio I was just checking that out myself, leaving the Twin Cities on the northern fringe of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Sounds like areas along the lakes get screwed. (Wisconsin side)... MKE saying no accumulations tomorrow. Although it turns to snow Sat nite... Using 18z data....and ASSUMING a conservative 15:1 ratio....GFS Bufkit says MKE gets 5 inches with a changeover between 1 and 4am Sunday....MesoNAM Bufkit says MKE gets about 6 inches with a change over around 10pm Saturday, but does show a break in precip for a few hours after that before starting again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 looking at 300mb and H5. 00z nam is going south as well and digging more..the H3 trough is heading nearly due south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 looking at 300mb and H5. 00z nam is going south as well and digging more..the H3 trough is heading nearly due south SLP is a bit further south by 18/21hrs...FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Extreme E. IA at hour 18 according to tombo. ne ia at 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 It's really slow compared to 18z. And farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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