michsnowfreak Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Thing is which ALWAYS sits in the back of my mind is the 40s/50s and early 60s. Even here was no picnic in winters like 47-48 and 52-53 with less then 30". Think about it.. That stretch from 47-48 till 63-64 basically had just one winter with what now is considered above normal snowfall and thus see 51-52 other then that only 59-60 managed to crack the 50" mark and 7 of them failed to crack 40! And that is here! Ofcourse some of that may be screwed up too with missing data but still i doubt THAT much is missing. Try to imagine a winter like 47-48! Point is that it is very possible we could see a long stretch of very crappy winters like they have. True. 1947-48 was probably the weirdest winter ever. Detroit saw just 26.6" of snow (currently stands as the 25th least snowy winter on record), yet 81 days had 1"+ of snow on the ground. It was a cold, frozen tundra winter Id imagine. Major new years ice storm put the area at a standstill for days, but in true 1940s fashion, no big snowstorms. I could handle a winter like that because it was white, what I could not handle was the following winter, 1948-49, a warm, horrendous winter. Just 13.7" of snow, 3rd most snowless winter on record. (Of the top 26 least snowy winters on record, SEVEN winters from the 1940s make that list). Luckily these times were long ago, and winters like that just dont seem to happen anymore. Detroit has not seen a sub-20" winter since 1968-69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Currently living in the Detroit metro area and having lived relatively close to Worcester (15 miles east)... The snowcover out here in Detroit lasts a bit more. What I've noticed out in New England is that winter temperatures fluctuate a lot more... you can have night time lows in January in the fifties (and a matching dew point!) with some nor'easters, whereas others you barely get above zero degrees... and others, it'll start below zero with heavy snow and then shoot up into the fifties and wipe out the snow. Though, of course, I do miss those cold coastal bombs a whole lot... especially since they seem to be occurring with colder scenarios these past few years. But yeah, Worcester is nice, though some elevated areas to the north and especially west of the city gets a whole lot more snow... not to mention more tornadic activity and the rare hurricane. Thanks for the input! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 It always sits in my mind. Its telling me.. I better be happy with the last few winters. It could change just like that for the worse The 90's were bad excluding Jan 99. Take away 98-99. I dont think we ever cracked 50"+ I rememeber 97 with only 27.5" Yeah the 1990s were not good, particularly the 2nd half of the decade. Detroit had ONE winter crack 50" in the 1990s, weve seen more than 60" FIVE times since 2002. Avg by Decade 1880s- 47.3" 1890s- 42.7" 1900s- 46.3" 1910s- 39.7" 1920s- 46.1" 1930s- 32.9" 1940s- 27.6" 1950s- 37.8" 1960s- 31.8" 1970s- 45.6" 1980s- 45.2" 1990s- 37.2" 2000s- 45.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 True. 1947-48 was probably the weirdest winter ever. Detroit saw just 26.6" of snow (currently stands as the 25th least snowy winter on record), yet 81 days had 1"+ of snow on the ground. It was a cold, frozen tundra winter Id imagine. Major new years ice storm put the area at a standstill for days, but in true 1940s fashion, no big snowstorms. I could handle a winter like that because it was white, what I could not handle was the following winter, 1948-49, a warm, horrendous winter. Just 13.7" of snow, 3rd most snowless winter on record. (Of the top 26 least snowy winters on record, SEVEN winters from the 1940s make that list). Luckily these times were long ago, and winters like that just dont seem to happen anymore. Detroit has not seen a sub-20" winter since 1968-69. Thats just remarkable to think only 13.7" fell the WHOLE WINTER. Imagine if that happened this winter. OMG BTW: what the heck was worse then 13.7"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 It always sits in my mind. Its telling me.. I better be happy with the last few winters. It could change just like that for the worse The 90's were bad excluding Jan 99. Take away 98-99. I dont think we ever cracked 50"+ I rememeber 97 with only 27.5" 97 was an El Nino year, which has no relevance to this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 97 was an El Nino year, which has no relevance to this year. Were taking about Historical Snow amounts per decades. Statement above has no relevance to this conversation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Were taking about Historical Snow amounts per decades. Statement above has no relevance to this conversation It makes a difference when you have some bad years in the 90s noting that there was only two true La Nina years in the 90s. So actually it does have relevance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 (Of the top 26 least snowy winters on record, SEVEN winters from the 1940s make that list) And 5 of the top 15 snowiest winters have happened this last decade (ok, technically 2010-11 is a new decade). But its interesting that the decades are grouped together like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Tuesday, November 1st: Hi: 64F Lo: 34F Overall Sky Conditions: Clear Max Wind Gust: 11MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 RGEM and NAM have had some major shifts in their forecast solutions regarding tomorrow's system over the past few days. Definitely not impressed with the new NAM. It's gonna be another interesting winter with model discrepancies right up to the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Still 58° F, this is crazy for after midnight. Showers breaking out slowly in WI too. It's like the middle of the day weather wise despite being the middle of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Thing is which ALWAYS sits in the back of my mind is the 40s/50s and early 60s. Even here was no picnic in winters like 47-48 and 52-53 with less then 30". Think about it.. That stretch from 47-48 till 63-64 basically had just one winter with what now is considered above normal snowfall and thus see 51-52 other then that only 59-60 managed to crack the 50" mark and 7 of them failed to crack 40! And that is here! Ofcourse some of that may be screwed up too with missing data but still i doubt THAT much is missing. Try to imagine a winter like 47-48! Point is that it is very possible we could see a long stretch of very crappy winters like they have. That sits in the back of my mind too, but feel we don't have to worry about it. I am not trying to get into a climate change debate here, (I won't even go to that sub forum), but my opinion is that we may never see a stretch of bad winters like that again. I have no doubt that we will get a dud or even two in a row occasionally, but the evidence I've seen shows a continuation of generally snowier winters in our region. Bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 70º looks like a good bet here today. But it won't last like the November 2010 torch... 8 70 37 54 9 73 39 56 10 74 36 55 11 76 40 58 12 74 44 59 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 some very interesting convo in this thread. being a snowpack guy, i'd definitely stay away from living on the coast, but stormchasing is always an option! the great chicago blizzard last year was right up there with the very best / worse than 95% of noreasters. not many places i'd take over my current location. syracuse is the only one really, they are the kings of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 check this out...OAX radar, some serious bright banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Yeah, bright banding across a large part of IA and part of WI, with a snow-like reflectivity signal to the NW of the bright banding. Down to 47° F at MSN and 46° F on top of the weather building. When the weather building gets to 35° F that's generally when we start mixing, so 11° F to go. With the combo of CAA, evaporational cooling, and night coming up, I think we have a shot at seeing some flakes on the backedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Yeah, bright banding across a large part of IA and part of WI, with a snow-like reflectivity signal to the NW of the bright banding. Down to 47° F at MSN and 46° F on top of the weather building. When the weather building gets to 35° F that's generally when we start mixing, so 11° F to go. With the combo of CAA, evaporational cooling, and night coming up, I think we have a shot at seeing some flakes on the backedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 I'd be surprised if MSN sees flakes. 850 mb temps cool off but there's pesky warmth below that. Maybe if turtle goes on top of the met building with a telescope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 I'd be surprised if MSN sees flakes. 850 mb temps cool off but there's pesky warmth below that. Maybe if turtle goes on top of the met building with a telescope. It's possible. The met building is pretty high there. The temp could cool to 35 or so, but probably not any lower. Then again, New York did get snow with the temp around 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 LOT THE OTHER WILDCARD FOR TONIGHT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NW ILLINOIS. A COUPLE OF SITES IN EASTERN IOWA ARE REPORTING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON IN A HEAVIER PRECIP BAND...PERHAPS WHERE FROZEN PRECIP IS COPIOUS ENOUGH TO COOL THE SURROUNDING AIRMASS...OR WHERE HYDROMETEORS ARE LARGE ENOUGH TO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY DOWN THROUGH THE SHALLOW WARM SURFACE LAYER. ADDED MENTION OF A MIX IN OUR FAR NW CWA IN COORDINATION WITH MKX AND DVN...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION FROM THIS ACTIVITY...SHOULD IT IN FACT DEVELOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 MKX put in a chance of flakes for Madison. Freezing level never really drops below 3k feet but I guess it can't be ruled out if precip gets heavy enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 MKX put in a chance of flakes for Madison. Freezing level never really drops below 3k feet but I guess it can't be ruled out if precip gets heavy enough. Snow and mixed precip being reported in northeast IA with temps of 37° F, right where the heavy stuff has been streaming through for awhile. Met building at 44° F, should get knocked down quick when we get the heavier rain. STILL WONDERING IF THERE MIGHT BE SOME SLEET OR SNOW MIXED IN ACROSSTHE WEST FOR A TIME THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWENOUGH COOLING IN HEAVIEST PRECIP TO TAKE THE ABOVE FREEZING LAYERDOWN TO ONLY ABOUT A THOUSAND FEET DEEP. ISOTHERMAL LAYER THEN FROMABOUT 1-2 KFT. SEEING SOME OBS UPSTREAM OF MIXED PRECIP...SOCONTEMPLATING THROWING IN A MIX FROM MADISON WESTWARD FOR THISEVENING. MAJORITY OF PRECIP WOULD STILL BE RAIN...AND NEAR SFC ANDGROUND TEMPS TOO WARM TO CONSIDER ANYTHING STICKING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 We should be getting into a steadier rain in the next couple hours, but any snow or sleet mixing in will be restricted to Madison and west I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Mixed precip being observed in Baraboo (just to the north) and Prairie Du Chien (to the west). Down to 43° F on top of the met building, I expect that to crash quickly based on upstream obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Baraboo down to freezing with snow, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Baraboo down to freezing with snow, wow. The heaviest band should be coming through your area right now. Surprising that Baraboo is down to freezing that quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 The heaviest band should be coming through your area right now. Surprising that Baraboo is down to freezing that quickly. The north winds are suddenly howling here and the temp is crashing, 41 on top of the met building now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 48 with a cold rain here. Was nice out until mid afternoon when the front passed. Made it to 63 earlier. About 0.20" of rain so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Kind of hard to believe, looking at the current radar, that this system will skirt south of here leaving us essentially high and dry. But that's what the models have transpiring. Oh well, more boredom... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Madison's evidently down to 36 with light snow. Even Moneyman's Fon du Lac is down to 37 with +Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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