Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Who cares...I think expecting anymore significant snow for the rest of this month is a pipedream. November is all done I think. I'm thinking we bounce up and down until mid December at this point at which time winter will be decided. It either starts to dig in and we get a tough 45 days of brutal weather or we fester on the other side of the law of averages. Spring like today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I'm thinking that evolves later in December ... after about the 15th. Definitely a more "comfortable" pattern for us. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Thats terrible, Looks like a pair of boobs with the left one bigger then the right Just like home? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 The +EPO pattern on the 8-10 day anomaly maps is remarkable... an absolute classic torch outside of the west coast. Coupled with a nasty +NAO it's hard to get excited about much through 11/25 or 11/26 at the very earliest. By the end of the run by day 15 the Euro ensembles begin to offer some hope. +EPO pattern remains and there's not a whole lot of cold in southern Canada but we begin to see some changes in the north Atlantic with the NAO trying to tick back to negative and the -PNA from hell beginning to relax. Up until that point the pattern is a torch... whether we are +5 or +15 in the dailies remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Just like home? Like most homes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I hope to see our pattern changing storm in the plains showing up in the long range GEFS by Thanksgiving. This would give enough time for the usual delay ... putting it around the 14-15th. This times perfectly with the MJO wave moving through Indonesia ... forcing for RWD building ridging over the Aleutians. All the energy locked up over Alaska and western Canada dumps into the plains. Maybe a rain to snow deal, or solid overrunning event depending on the NAO and pressures to our north. Either way, we get cold for the second half of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 The +EPO pattern on the 8-10 day anomaly maps is remarkable... an absolute classic torch outside of the west coast. Coupled with a nasty -NAO it's hard to get excited about much through 11/25 or 11/26 at the very earliest. By the end of the run by day 15 the Euro ensembles begin to offer some hope. +EPO pattern remains and there's not a whole lot of cold in southern Canada but we begin to see some changes in the north Atlantic with the NAO trying to tick back to negative and the -PNA from hell beginning to relax. Up until that point the pattern is a torch... whether we are +5 or +15 in the dailies remains to be seen. sounds awesome. frisbees...t-shirts...convertibles driving with the tops down...your station doing live shots from the park interviewing people about how nice it is to have a mild thanksgiving day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I hope to see our pattern changing storm in the plains showing up in the long range GEFS by Thanksgiving. This would give enough time for the usual delay ... putting it around the 14-15th. This times perfectly with the MJO wave moving through Indonesia ... forcing for RWD building ridging over the Aleutians. All the energy locked up over Alaska and western Canada dumps into the plains. Maybe a rain to snow deal, or solid overrunning event depending on the NAO and pressures to our north. Either way, we get cold for the second half of the month 1993esque. Ride that pony till she throws you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 sounds awesome. frisbees...t-shirts...convertibles driving with the tops down...your station doing live shots from the park interviewing people about how nice it is to have a mild thanksgiving day. lol can't wait to eat my turkey in shorts and a t shirt. Not sure what Kevin is even talking about anymore lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 sounds awesome. frisbees...t-shirts...convertibles driving with the tops down...your station doing live shots from the park interviewing people about how nice it is to have a mild thanksgiving day. If we can get a few cold days around Thanksgiving it gives more credence to 1993. That was the year of the Leon Lett play in Dallas. ...can't remember the specifics...lol. By late in the first week of December, we were torching big time and I was nearly in tears (closer to Kevin's age then....). We then had some violent swings before the hammer finally dropped more or less for good right after Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 lol can't wait to eat my turkey in shorts and a t shirt. Not sure what Kevin is even talking about anymore lol. Anymore? Its been a Kevin/litchfield wishcast for days now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 lol can't wait to eat my turkey in shorts and a t shirt. Not sure what Kevin is even talking about anymore lol. Flip flops and tank tops? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Anymore? Its been a Kevin/litchfield wishcast for days now I have no idea why you keep using my name azzwipe, but I am certainly not nor have been calling for anything remotely cold besides a transient cool down until December, and yes I think December is a great month, especially for the interior. If you have not figured out that I am Mr Torch this autumn, then I dont know what to tell you, no go have a meltdown somewhere and enjoy the torch and historically warm met fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I hope to see our pattern changing storm in the plains showing up in the long range GEFS by Thanksgiving. This would give enough time for the usual delay ... putting it around the 14-15th. This times perfectly with the MJO wave moving through Indonesia ... forcing for RWD building ridging over the Aleutians. All the energy locked up over Alaska and western Canada dumps into the plains. Maybe a rain to snow deal, or solid overrunning event depending on the NAO and pressures to our north. Either way, we get cold for the second half of the month It's gonna be a while I think....at least for something more sustainable. At least some "hints" are starting to show up. Last year in December, the MJo went through phase 4-5 and came through phase 7, but it was weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Will would be happy with the #1 day 11 analog rolled forward...1960...100" in ORH. would probably be content with the top 4 really, 74, 75, 62. all decent for the interior....about 50/50 for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 It's gonna be a while I think....at least for something more sustainable. At least some "hints" are starting to show up. Last year in December, the MJo went through phase 4-5 and came through phase 7, but it was weak. yeah i feel like it was near or in the circle of death alot, iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Will would be happy with the #1 day 11 analog rolled forward...1960...100" in ORH. would probably be content with the top 4 really, 74, 75, 62. all decent for the interior....about 50/50 for the coast. 1960 is gold. Every one of us would hug it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 1960 is gold. Every one of us would hug it. Do you remember that one at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Do you remember that one at all? The fall of 1960 was warm..as a matter of fact..early December was a torch..then a week later a classic blizzard..the rubber band broke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Meh, I'm still seeing huge run to run mass field discontinuities in the ensemble mean its self, of both for that matter. I'm still thinking we're looking at more noise than usual right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Meh, I'm still seeing huge run to run mass field discontinuities in the ensemble mean its self, of both for that matter. I'm still thinking we're looking at more noise than usual right now. More noise meaning more inconsistencies because of the transition from fall to winter right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Do you remember that one at all? Every flake. I was in the 8th grade and it was the year of JFK's election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 '60-'61 was a weak Nina I think, but coming off a Nino. Edit, it was neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 The fall of 1960 was warm..as a matter of fact..early December was a torch..then a week later a classic blizzard..the rubber band broke 12/4/60...neary 70F 12/11/60......2 foot blizzard with temps hovering around 10F for the event. Burned in my weenie brain forever....a victory because it started slowly...snowed for 6 hours before we booked an inch. But the secondary explosively intensification produced quite the bomb. NYC had 1 inch from 3-9PM (I was in NJ burbs). Up to 3 inches by midnight and over a foot by 6AM with old school measuring techniques. Snowed hard till around Noon. A few days later it got mild and the pattern finally set in for good right after New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 12/4/60...neary 70F 12/11/60......2 foot blizzard with temps hovering around 10F for the event. Burned in my weenie brain forever....a victory because it started slowly...snowed for 6 hours before we booked an inch. But the secondary explosively intensification produced quite the bomb. NYC had 1 inch from 3-9PM (I was in NJ burbs). Up to 3 inches by midnight and over a foot by 6AM with old school measuring techniques. Snowed hard till around Noon. A few days later it got mild and the pattern finally set in for good right after New Years. Might have been my first weenie memory. Dad shoveling snow to get in and work on our New House just before Christmas, then a Easter storm?61? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Seems like Ryan is the only one calling for a 10 -20 day non stop torch. Everyone else admits it's several days of below..then several above then several below..etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 1993esque. Ride that pony till she throws you. Would not suprise me in the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Might have been my first weenie memory. Dad shoveling snow to get in and work on our New House just before Christmas, then a Easter storm?61? I don't remember the Easter storm but it may have been rain where I was growing up and snow up here in SNE. 2/4/61 was the end of the pattern....snowed as hard as it possibly could for 18 hours.....some of the best snow growth I've ever seen...you could literally see the snow accumulating if you looked outside for more than a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 12/4/60...neary 70F 12/11/60......2 foot blizzard with temps hovering around 10F for the event. Burned in my weenie brain forever....a victory because it started slowly...snowed for 6 hours before we booked an inch. But the secondary explosively intensification produced quite the bomb. NYC had 1 inch from 3-9PM (I was in NJ burbs). Up to 3 inches by midnight and over a foot by 6AM with old school measuring techniques. Snowed hard till around Noon. A few days later it got mild and the pattern finally set in for good right after New Years. Wow just checked NESIS and 1960-1961 had 3 KU storms, including the #5 ranked KU storm on Feb 2 to Feb 5, 1961 Here's the storm that Jerry was talking about.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I don't remember the Easter storm but it may have been rain where I was growing up and snow up here in SNE. 2/4/61 was the end of the pattern....snowed as hard as it possibly could for 18 hours.....some of the best snow growth I've ever seen...you could literally see the snow accumulating if you looked outside for more than a minute. Here's that storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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