dryslot Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 It would be funny if there was a monster storm in one of these transient cold shots. Would not take much, But that track depiction would be a 1st here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Man it goes from bad to worse as the cold in western Canada modifies, no source region for our area, 3 and 4 are ugly, if you are looking ahead and what would come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Correct, they are absolutely horrific from beginning to end.....disaster They are more or less reiterating last week's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 They are more or less reiterating last week's? 100%.....just an unending SE ridge and torch at 850 over the entire EC......vomit worthy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 lake effect squalls in upstate NY. Maybe some upslope, too, if we luck out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Maybe some upslope, too, if we luck out. Powderfreak nudity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 They are more or less reiterating last week's? I wont speak for JD, but to my eye looking at the maps, they are as bad as it could possibly get if your looking for a pattern change or any cold air in southern or eastern canada, let alone our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Powderfreak nudity. The only thing deeper than the respective snowpacks of Pulaski, NY and Mount Mansfield will be the sne drifts of "who gives a fu**". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 100%.....just an unending SE ridge and torch at 850 over the entire EC......vomit worthy... Weeks 3 and esp 4 can shift around and they are a 1 week avg so can't see the daily details, but in general that pattern is not the nicest. Might as well go with the flow and see what happens. As usual, these things take time. Could be another 2-3 weeks or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 The only thing deeper than the respective snowpacks of Pulaski, NY and Mount Mansfield will be the sne drifts of "who gives a fu**". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Weeks 3 and esp 4 can shift around and they are a 1 week avg so can't see the daily details, but in general that pattern is not the nicest. Might as well go with the flow and see what happens. As usual, these things take time. Could be another 2-3 weeks or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 LOL at the weeklies analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 100%.....just an unending SE ridge and torch at 850 over the entire EC......vomit worthy... lol and you guys believe that garbage?..a model trying to tell you what the weather pattern will be on Dec 14th..why dont you check out the CFS maps for next summer..again anything over a week is a real reach..haven't we all learned that already?..insane that some Mets are throwing out this garbage as law...next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2011 Author Share Posted November 14, 2011 The Euro weeklies would be supported by the MJO if they pan out....since the MJO looks like it will be in a state favorable for warmth for early December. No guarantee the MJO wave stays strong enough enough to be an influence, but if it did, it certainly supports the warmth. Hopefully we see it cycle to phase 6 pretty quickly which is more favorable for cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Weeks 3 and esp 4 can shift around and they are a 1 week avg so can't see the daily details, but in general that pattern is not the nicest. Might as well go with the flow and see what happens. As usual, these things take time. Could be another 2-3 months or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 lol and you guys believe that garbage?..a model trying to tell you what the weather pattern will be on Dec 14th..why dont you check out the CFS maps for next summer..again anything over a week is a real reach..haven't we all learned that already?..insane that some Mets are throwing out this garbage as law...next? I take them for what they are worth, not verbatim, especially in weeks 3 and 4.....they are usually pretty good for weeks 1 and 2 though. The last thing anyone needs to do right now is lose a minute of sleep over them lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 The Euro weeklies would be supported by the MJO if they pan out....since the MJO looks like it will be in a state favorable for warmth for early December. No guarantee the MJO wave stays strong enough enough to be an influence, but if it did, it certainly supports the warmth. Hopefully we see it cycle to phase 6 pretty quickly which is more favorable for cold. I thought it was entering phase 8... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 The Euro weeklies would be supported by the MJO if they pan out....since the MJO looks like it will be in a state favorable for warmth for early December. No guarantee the MJO wave stays strong enough enough to be an influence, but if it did, it certainly supports the warmth. Hopefully we see it cycle to phase 6 pretty quickly which is more favorable for cold. It looks like it wants to go around the horn right through phase 4. It is weak though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 LOL at the weeklies analysis It's a good thing you got 13" in October this year...you MIGHT be able to get to 50% of your average for the year because of that...congrats...torch winter is on the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I take them for what they are worth, not verbatim, especially in weeks 3 and 4.....they are usually pretty good for weeks 1 and 2 though. The last thing anyone needs to do right now is lose a minute of sleep over them lol.... I know...I think people think we take them verbatim, but like Will said and also from what the ensembles show..I don't see how they are "garbage." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I thought it was entering phase 8... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I thought it was entering phase 8... euro ens. take it to 3 then 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 lol and you guys believe that garbage?..a model trying to tell you what the weather pattern will be on Dec 14th..why dont you check out the CFS maps for next summer..again anything over a week is a real reach..haven't we all learned that already?..insane that some Mets are throwing out this garbage as law...next? they're not that bad. not great, but not bad. just another tool to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I take them for what they are worth, not verbatim, especially in weeks 3 and 4.....they are usually pretty good for weeks 1 and 2 though. The last thing anyone needs to do right now is lose a minute of sleep over them lol.... While they are depressing, you are correct, in fact last Nov and Dec was frustrating and then Boxing Day came along and provided 6 weeks of the best stuff you will ever see on the South Coast of New England (in most spots). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I know...I think people think we take them verbatim, but like Will said and also from what the ensembles show..I don't see how they are "garbage." week 3 and 4 are not accurate..you know that..I remember 3 years ago..Euro weeklies cold December,cold Christmas blah blah..it was 50 degrees most of Christmas week..It's really a flip of a coin when you go past 2 weeks..even 10 days in some cases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 The only thing deeper than the respective snowpacks of Pulaski, NY and Mount Mansfield will be the sne drifts of "who gives a fu**". lmao humorous writing at its finest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 While they are depressing, you are correct, in fact last Nov and Dec was frustrating and then Boxing Day came along and provided 6 weeks of the best stuff you will ever see on the South Coast of New England (in most spots). You know the drill, we do it every year lol. Let's revisit this in 2 weeks, I would almost bet that things look much, much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I thought it was entering phase 8... According to this it is currently in Phase 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 week 3 and 4 are not accurate..you know that..I remember 3 years ago..Euro weeklies cold December,cold Christmas blah blah..it was 50 degrees most of Christmas week..It's really a flip of a coin when you go past 2 weeks..even 10 days in some cases I'm not saying they are accurate, but they fit some of the overall indices that we are seeing now, and week 3 seems to be in decent agreement if you look at the end of the euro ensembles. I know they can change, I just mentioned some posts back that they shift around. They are also a 1 week average so they can't account for a rogue snow event or what have you. Every Met knows not to take them verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 For now the pattern supports it (the weeklies that is...assuming they are as folks are describing them) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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