Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Katia tracking and discussion thread


Damage In Tolland

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 713
  • Created
  • Last Reply

You Yankees already trying to claim Katia as your own? lolz

HAHA!!! We'll see, my friend. It'll give you an excuse to see us up thisaway!!! ;)

After just seeing the Euro...this one is gonna recurve

Don't give up on it yet, Kev. May be just in time for our GTG in ORH!!! BTW, glad to see ya back here.

Don't throw it out yet. Think it could get close enough to make things interesting.

True, how true. High over the western ATLC is very strong and could retrograde with Katia. At least that's what the EC is hinting at.

As usual, we'll know better in a couple of weeks. ;)

--Turtle

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is the year of extremes, so I fully expect at least a storm of '95 Felix, '55 Connie, or some type of pesky failed re-curve. Major flooding.

Thoughts?

The Gulf will brew something up that spills northeast at some pt.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Gulf is a powderkeg and models are showing some interesting things.

I'd mostly write off another east coast hit this yr but patterns do tend to try to repeat so maybe sometime later month? I'm not a long ranger. I don't think I can see it with Katia. The Gulf however does look like it is going to try to cook something/s up in the next period.Of course none of it looks particularly promising for  now up this way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

#1 Don Sutherland...nice call on the probabilities of Irene strengthening at all. You were right as were the stats.

Second I think Katia is up for grabs, I think she'll spin out there somewhere around Bermuda for a bit waiting for the 2nd front to grab it.

Thanks for the kind words, Messenger.

While I believe Katia is probably more likely than not to recurve somewhere in the vicinity of 65W-70W, I don't believe that outcome is cast in stone just yet. The 12z ECMWF ensemble means showed the weakness closing before Katia had recurved. If that happens, I'd be concerned that Katia could drift about,loop, or even be steered back more to the west, which would either delay its recurvature or even increase a possible threat to landfall.

ECMWFens0830201112z.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd mostly write off another east coast hit this yr but patterns do tend to try to repeat so maybe sometime later month? I'm not a long ranger. I don't think I can see it with Katia. The Gulf however does look like it is going to try to cook something/s up in the next period.Of course none of it looks particularly promising for  now up this way.

I don't see Katia coming into the EC either, but I said the same with Irene.

I don't know...I just think the pattern is a little troughy, but it only takes one to lift out quick enough or a ridge to build back in.

One other thing going against it, I'm now back from CA so no tropical threats will happen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Per JB--says 3 troughs will affect her, the 1st two will be less than depicted and the 3rd will dig far enough west to bring her up west of 75....admits he has no model support LOL...he's leaning on the far east teleconnection on this one....

-

Personally, I'm heading to the Jersey shore next week so should be good waves regardless of track....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Models are also brewing something in the Gulf. If that front stalls off the East Coast and that low...or even a regular coastal low develops..probably more hydro issues.

Any remnants could be more devasting than a cane hitting NE.. the Merrimack is flowing really good right now..

When would this hit Scott?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It might be nothing more than a fropa...nobody can say much more at this point to be honest. It was midweek and beyond.

It looked like the gfs stalled the front an had whatever formed in the gulf move right up there into NE..

Oh and what the hell is with the new ncep model site.. it blows

Link to comment
Share on other sites

going to be an interesting week or so of model runs i think. agree that it'll be hard to get katia too far west with so many troughs coming off the east coast...but by the same token...some are modeled really deep, even closing off over the south/central US on some products. between whatever happens in the gulf and then katia in the atlantic and what appear to be some pretty potent shortwaves embedded in the flow, there's going to be some entertaining solutions tossed about...00z suite is already kind of showing this with all sorts of fujiwhara's going on. LOL.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

going to be an interesting week or so of model runs i think. agree that it'll be hard to get katia too far west with so many troughs coming off the east coast...but by the same token...some are modeled really deep, even closing off over the south/central US on some products. between whatever happens in the gulf and then katia in the atlantic and what appear to be some pretty potent shortwaves embedded in the flow, there's going to be some entertaining solutions tossed about...00z suite is already kind of showing this with all sorts of fujiwhara's going on. LOL.

Yes I can almost guarantee there will be some weather porn 1938/esther kind of solution in one of two of the runs in the next 7 days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Maybe if we get some sort of phasing well offshore..with a strong high to the NW we can get some sort of damaging wind storm out of the whole deal. I remember something like that happening about 8-10 yrs ago one September. A sunny day with a cane passing well OTS wih strong NW winds gusting over 60

The sick person in me wants to see more damage and flooding of the Merrimack

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't know if the pattern will be there for a U.S. hit but it looks unlikely. It seems like there are many instances where the big positive tilt rounded trof picking up a TC, the interaction is a fail with the medium range and longer range models, and they almost automatically end up with less phasing and a kick further east than had been shown.

However if that trof is more neg tilt/further west in coming days, or if there is a split (or whatever differences) there could be a more interesting interaction with a leftover split upper disturbance or another s/w after the 4th or 5th that comes into play. That is, if Katia is still hanging around at a reasonably lower latitude.

yeah i certainly wouldn't be calling for an east coast LF right now but would bet we'll see some crazy model runs. the timing and strength of each of these features is going to be a mess.

try looping through some of the individual gfs ensemble members. there's plenty of entertainment there, if the op didn't provide enough on its own.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...