HoarfrostHubb Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 You Yankees already trying to claim Katia as your own? lolz We get TC's up here all the time... ...of course they are usually 500 miles east, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Track on this storm is definitely not favorable, GFS takes into Nova Scotia and the Euro takes it well east of there, It's already going to end up well NW of Puerto Rico moving WNW on its projected current path... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Track on this storm is definitely not favorable, GFS takes into Nova Scotia and the Euro takes it well east of there, It's already going to end up well NW of Puerto Rico moving WNW on its projected current path... Good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 #1 Don Sutherland...nice call on the probabilities of Irene strengthening at all. You were right as were the stats. Second I think Katia is up for grabs, I think she'll spin out there somewhere around Bermuda for a bit waiting for the 2nd front to grab it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Good... Bring on winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 You Yankees already trying to claim Katia as your own? lolz HAHA!!! We'll see, my friend. It'll give you an excuse to see us up thisaway!!! After just seeing the Euro...this one is gonna recurve Don't give up on it yet, Kev. May be just in time for our GTG in ORH!!! BTW, glad to see ya back here. Don't throw it out yet. Think it could get close enough to make things interesting. True, how true. High over the western ATLC is very strong and could retrograde with Katia. At least that's what the EC is hinting at. As usual, we'll know better in a couple of weeks. --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 This is the year of extremes, so I fully expect at least a storm of '95 Felix, '55 Connie, or some type of pesky failed re-curve. Major flooding. Thoughts? The Gulf will brew something up that spills northeast at some pt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 The Gulf will brew something up that spills northeast at some pt. The Gulf is a powderkeg and models are showing some interesting things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 The Gulf is a powderkeg and models are showing some interesting things. I'd mostly write off another east coast hit this yr but patterns do tend to try to repeat so maybe sometime later month? I'm not a long ranger. I don't think I can see it with Katia. The Gulf however does look like it is going to try to cook something/s up in the next period.Of course none of it looks particularly promising for now up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 #1 Don Sutherland...nice call on the probabilities of Irene strengthening at all. You were right as were the stats. Second I think Katia is up for grabs, I think she'll spin out there somewhere around Bermuda for a bit waiting for the 2nd front to grab it. Thanks for the kind words, Messenger. While I believe Katia is probably more likely than not to recurve somewhere in the vicinity of 65W-70W, I don't believe that outcome is cast in stone just yet. The 12z ECMWF ensemble means showed the weakness closing before Katia had recurved. If that happens, I'd be concerned that Katia could drift about,loop, or even be steered back more to the west, which would either delay its recurvature or even increase a possible threat to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 I'd mostly write off another east coast hit this yr but patterns do tend to try to repeat so maybe sometime later month? I'm not a long ranger. I don't think I can see it with Katia. The Gulf however does look like it is going to try to cook something/s up in the next period.Of course none of it looks particularly promising for now up this way. I don't see Katia coming into the EC either, but I said the same with Irene. I don't know...I just think the pattern is a little troughy, but it only takes one to lift out quick enough or a ridge to build back in. One other thing going against it, I'm now back from CA so no tropical threats will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 I don't see Katia as an EC threat, BUT it promises to become a large and powerful hurricane, and could possibly track far enough north to threaten Nova Scotia, and give New England some awesome waves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 LOL, what the hell is the 00z GFS doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 LOL, what the hell is the 00z GFS doing? I was hoping for a triple phase between the trough, Katia, and Lee </:weenie:> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 31, 2011 Author Share Posted August 31, 2011 Looks like she's gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Per JB--says 3 troughs will affect her, the 1st two will be less than depicted and the 3rd will dig far enough west to bring her up west of 75....admits he has no model support LOL...he's leaning on the far east teleconnection on this one.... - Personally, I'm heading to the Jersey shore next week so should be good waves regardless of track.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Models are also brewing something in the Gulf. If that front stalls off the East Coast and that low...or even a regular coastal low develops..probably more hydro issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 The GOM is ripe, pungent, ready to explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Models are also brewing something in the Gulf. If that front stalls off the East Coast and that low...or even a regular coastal low develops..probably more hydro issues. Any remnants could be more devasting than a cane hitting NE.. the Merrimack is flowing really good right now.. When would this hit Scott? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Any remnants could be more devasting than a cane hitting NE.. the Merrimack is flowing really good right now.. When would this hit Scott? It might be nothing more than a fropa...nobody can say much more at this point to be honest. It was midweek and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 It might be nothing more than a fropa...nobody can say much more at this point to be honest. It was midweek and beyond. It looked like the gfs stalled the front an had whatever formed in the gulf move right up there into NE.. Oh and what the hell is with the new ncep model site.. it blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Imagine if NE sees another 3-6" tho? What would the flooding look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Models are also brewing something in the Gulf. If that front stalls off the East Coast and that low...or even a regular coastal low develops..probably more hydro issues. Hopefully Ginx gets his power back to restore the hydro fetish to the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 31, 2011 Author Share Posted August 31, 2011 Looks like Hurricane Lee to be is gonna ride north up the stalled out front early next week..to our west and deliver more heavy rains. What's another 4-8 inches among friends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 going to be an interesting week or so of model runs i think. agree that it'll be hard to get katia too far west with so many troughs coming off the east coast...but by the same token...some are modeled really deep, even closing off over the south/central US on some products. between whatever happens in the gulf and then katia in the atlantic and what appear to be some pretty potent shortwaves embedded in the flow, there's going to be some entertaining solutions tossed about...00z suite is already kind of showing this with all sorts of fujiwhara's going on. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 going to be an interesting week or so of model runs i think. agree that it'll be hard to get katia too far west with so many troughs coming off the east coast...but by the same token...some are modeled really deep, even closing off over the south/central US on some products. between whatever happens in the gulf and then katia in the atlantic and what appear to be some pretty potent shortwaves embedded in the flow, there's going to be some entertaining solutions tossed about...00z suite is already kind of showing this with all sorts of fujiwhara's going on. LOL. Yes I can almost guarantee there will be some weather porn 1938/esther kind of solution in one of two of the runs in the next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 31, 2011 Author Share Posted August 31, 2011 Maybe if we get some sort of phasing well offshore..with a strong high to the NW we can get some sort of damaging wind storm out of the whole deal. I remember something like that happening about 8-10 yrs ago one September. A sunny day with a cane passing well OTS wih strong NW winds gusting over 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Capecod/Ryan.. chances of katia hitting U.S as of now you think? Is this storm totally dead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Maybe if we get some sort of phasing well offshore..with a strong high to the NW we can get some sort of damaging wind storm out of the whole deal. I remember something like that happening about 8-10 yrs ago one September. A sunny day with a cane passing well OTS wih strong NW winds gusting over 60 The sick person in me wants to see more damage and flooding of the Merrimack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 I don't know if the pattern will be there for a U.S. hit but it looks unlikely. It seems like there are many instances where the big positive tilt rounded trof picking up a TC, the interaction is a fail with the medium range and longer range models, and they almost automatically end up with less phasing and a kick further east than had been shown. However if that trof is more neg tilt/further west in coming days, or if there is a split (or whatever differences) there could be a more interesting interaction with a leftover split upper disturbance or another s/w after the 4th or 5th that comes into play. That is, if Katia is still hanging around at a reasonably lower latitude. yeah i certainly wouldn't be calling for an east coast LF right now but would bet we'll see some crazy model runs. the timing and strength of each of these features is going to be a mess. try looping through some of the individual gfs ensemble members. there's plenty of entertainment there, if the op didn't provide enough on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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