WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 From SPC: ...NEW ENGLAND TO MID ATLANTIC STATES... NEWD PROGRESSION OF MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS AWAY FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN THE OPENING AND SUBSEQUENT DE-AMPLIFICATION OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE NERN U.S. DESPITE THE WEAKENING OF THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM...THE COUPLING OF JET ENTRANCE REGION AND COLD FRONTAL CIRCULATIONS WILL ENHANCE DEEP ASCENT WITHIN WARM SECTOR TODAY. A COMBINATION OF BACK-BUILDING AND FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IS BEING OBSERVED THIS MORNING WITHIN BROAD CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXTENDING FROM ERN PARTS OF NY/PA TO SRN OH. LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL UNDERGO DIURNAL WEAKENING THIS MORNING... ESPECIALLY AS STRONGER WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A WLY LLJ DEVELOPS E/NE OF REGION. EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING STORMS WILL SLOW AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AT MANY LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY. WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...THE COMBINATION OF 60S TO LOWER 70S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AND A RIBBON OF EML ADVECTING EWD FROM THE OH VALLEY WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL JET CIRCULATION /MENTIONED ABOVE/ WILL FOSTER THE RE-DEVELOPMENT AND/OR RE-INTENSIFICATION OF TSTMS BY AFTERNOON FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO VA. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL BE WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY...SUFFICIENT /30-40 KT/ DEEP WSWLY SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. Storms already popping this morning. Adding another 1-2" of rain on already moist soil will not be helpful if we get 4-8" of rain from Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Discussion: Woooooooooooo storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Flood watch * FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING * SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY...AND BE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A BAND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL...PRODUCING RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES IN JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS...WILL BE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 More thunder! Nice blob heading my way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Distinct line forming along the Blue Ridge. More storms popping everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Flood watch before the cane.. disaster. Think towson has seen an inch already this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Not a drop here again. Storms are popping, again, just off to the east, and the blob on radar off to the west appears to be dying as it heads east. Typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 clouds. meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Not a drop here again. Storms are popping, again, just off to the east, and the blob on radar off to the west appears to be dying as it heads east. Typical. Lots more expected to form this afternoon, grumpypants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JeanineJ Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Downpours here with loud thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Lots more expected to form this afternoon, grumpypants Then I hope they form out here for once (in a long while at least). Yeah, I'm grumpy; I haven't seen a decent rain or thunderstorm in over 3 months now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Lots of thunder and lighting here in WV. winds are dead calm ... .75 in the bucket so far with another heavy batch about to move in. just under 4.5 inches for the month (so far). will absolutely break 5 " for the month within the hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 I think it's going to rain in Frederick! Radar lighting up...nothing looks particularly strong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 As I mentioned in the general obs thread, it'd be pretty funny if we get multiple reports of severe and tornadoes on a day when no one seems to care much about the near-term weather. Storms really firing up now. Pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 12z GFS run drops 2"+ of rain on the eastern shore and DE...not a good precursor to Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Re: the above radar, Blatimore north and east into South Jersey are going to have some serious flooding issues with Irene. Amazing rainfall recently up in Jersey (confirmed by fellow weather geek family members), and today's rains coupled with Irene's will be pretty brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Light-moderate rain in Laurel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Severe sprinkle storm in progress. After only 20 minutes sidewalks are almost damp. Watching that line out west dry-up as it got here is just depressing. Seeing the rain cut-off from Irene is even more depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 rain and thunder in Fairfax/merrifield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 pouring now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Pouring here in Silver Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 807 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 325 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 807 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MDC003-009-017-019-033-037-039-045-047-260100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0807.110825T1925Z-110826T0100Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL CALVERT CHARLES DORCHESTER PRINCE GEORGES SOMERSET ST. MARYS WICOMICO WORCESTER $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 322 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... SOUTHERN CULPEPER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... SOUTHERN FAUQUIER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 400 PM EDT * AT 317 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MADISON...OR 15 MILES WEST OF CULPEPER...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CULPEPER... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Had some decent rain this morning. The sun is peaking in an out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Had another storm roll through Columbia around 7. Rather "meh" IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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