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Sunday/Monday Coastal (Aug 14/15)


Baroclinic Zone

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Wes (usedtobe) give a nice little talk at the conference...most of the time the precip jackpot is not where the models place it...

Especially in the summertime where models are all over the place. You have to look for features that could cause convergence and wring out the moisture. Seems like for now, NJ up through western CT and MA have a good chance of heavy rain. It's all about where that band sets up..could be further east too.

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Especially in the summertime where models are all over the place. You have to look for features that could cause convergence and wring out the moisture. Seems like for now, NJ up through western CT and MA have a good chance of heavy rain. It's all about where that band sets up..could be further east too.

yup, and anyone not in a band will get endless sheet drizzle...oh they joys...

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Especially in the summertime where models are all over the place. You have to look for features that could cause convergence and wring out the moisture. Seems like for now, NJ up through western CT and MA have a good chance of heavy rain. It's all about where that band sets up..could be further east too.

Don't jinx it, Scott. :)

.03 overnight.

62.5/61

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JFK picked up 2.83" in an hour last night, 5.61" thus far.

Yup, same as here.... 2.8" between 4 and 5 am, and 5.35" so far.... almost reminds me of October 15, 2005, when we got 16-18" Island wide on our way to a month of 20"+

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JFK picked up 2.83" in an hour last night, 5.61" thus far.

I just looked at some of those obs from the ASOS stations down there... holy sh*t is that some heavy rainfall. Those NYC stations are averaging like 1"/hr for the past 4-6 hours with no let up in sight.

How is that not producing at least some sort of flood/flash flood warning? OKX mentions in the AFD that 1-2" has fallen (as of early this morning) with another 1-2" expected... seems to be a lot more water than that judging by the observations. I would think 2-3"/hr rates would trigger flash flood warnings, it must be really dry down there when 5-6" in as many hours only produces an urban and small stream advisory.

If we got that water up here I'd be watching whole trees get ripped out of the banks of the river that flows down the mountain.

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I just looked at some of those obs from the ASOS stations down there... holy sh*t is that some heavy rainfall. Those NYC stations are averaging like 1"/hr for the past 4-6 hours with no let up in sight.

How is that not producing at least some sort of flood/flash flood warning? OKX mentions in the AFD that 1-2" has fallen (as of early this morning) with another 1-2" expected... seems to be a lot more water than that judging by the observations. I would think 2-3"/hr rates would trigger flash flood warnings, it must be really dry down there when 5-6" in as many hours only produces an urban and small stream advisory.

If we got that water up here I'd be watching whole trees get ripped out of the banks of the river that flows down the mountain.

If this was Monday morning you know the rush hour would be a disaster of the magnitude of a surprise morning snowstorm lol.

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.20 here so far with light rain all morning. Looks like the heavy rains miss the interior..and ENE may miss most all together

We'll all get into it later on today and more likely tonight into tomorrow, as the trough sharpens. Some of this will be nowcast too, as it always is with summer. This area is already wet, so we don't need 3-4".

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FWIW ...today is a big day astronomically in ALB. We see our sunrise/sunset fall inside of the 6:00 AM <-> 8:00 PM window. Sunlight falls to 13 hours and 58 minutes. :thumbsup:

Then in crashes to 12 hours in the next 5 1/2 weeks. Gonna take a major heat dome to ever see another 90F at this point. It happens, but much tougher to achieve with an April sun angle.

He's body surfing across the sound with sand bags

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