CoastalWx Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 I'm not surprised at those insane totals. It has the potential to deliver those, but again...it depends on the location of the axis if heavy rain..along that front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Mudslides for Pete and western New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Wes (usedtobe) give a nice little talk at the conference...most of the time the precip jackpot is not where the models place it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Wes (usedtobe) give a nice little talk at the conference...most of the time the precip jackpot is not where the models place it... Especially in the summertime where models are all over the place. You have to look for features that could cause convergence and wring out the moisture. Seems like for now, NJ up through western CT and MA have a good chance of heavy rain. It's all about where that band sets up..could be further east too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Especially in the summertime where models are all over the place. You have to look for features that could cause convergence and wring out the moisture. Seems like for now, NJ up through western CT and MA have a good chance of heavy rain. It's all about where that band sets up..could be further east too. yup, and anyone not in a band will get endless sheet drizzle...oh they joys... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Especially in the summertime where models are all over the place. You have to look for features that could cause convergence and wring out the moisture. Seems like for now, NJ up through western CT and MA have a good chance of heavy rain. It's all about where that band sets up..could be further east too. Don't jinx it, Scott. .03 overnight. 62.5/61 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Congrats Joe on an epic, epic flood. Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 Light spotty rains going on here right now. Nice slug of rain along coastal areas of CT right now though. Congrats Joe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 JFK picked up 2.83" in an hour last night, 5.61" thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 JFK picked up 2.83" in an hour last night, 5.61" thus far. Yup, same as here.... 2.8" between 4 and 5 am, and 5.35" so far.... almost reminds me of October 15, 2005, when we got 16-18" Island wide on our way to a month of 20"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Flooding issues down there yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Steve better go to LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Flooding issues down there yet? Yep, I decided to go to the store to get some food this morning.... bad idea. The parking lot looks like the site of the all-new Woodmere Lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Awesome sleeping weather last night, felt cold after two weeks down south, nice steady rain too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Heavy Heavy rain showing up on the NAM and GFS. Drought cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 JFK picked up 2.83" in an hour last night, 5.61" thus far. I just looked at some of those obs from the ASOS stations down there... holy sh*t is that some heavy rainfall. Those NYC stations are averaging like 1"/hr for the past 4-6 hours with no let up in sight. How is that not producing at least some sort of flood/flash flood warning? OKX mentions in the AFD that 1-2" has fallen (as of early this morning) with another 1-2" expected... seems to be a lot more water than that judging by the observations. I would think 2-3"/hr rates would trigger flash flood warnings, it must be really dry down there when 5-6" in as many hours only produces an urban and small stream advisory. If we got that water up here I'd be watching whole trees get ripped out of the banks of the river that flows down the mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 I just looked at some of those obs from the ASOS stations down there... holy sh*t is that some heavy rainfall. Those NYC stations are averaging like 1"/hr for the past 4-6 hours with no let up in sight. How is that not producing at least some sort of flood/flash flood warning? OKX mentions in the AFD that 1-2" has fallen (as of early this morning) with another 1-2" expected... seems to be a lot more water than that judging by the observations. I would think 2-3"/hr rates would trigger flash flood warnings, it must be really dry down there when 5-6" in as many hours only produces an urban and small stream advisory. If we got that water up here I'd be watching whole trees get ripped out of the banks of the river that flows down the mountain. If this was Monday morning you know the rush hour would be a disaster of the magnitude of a surprise morning snowstorm lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Its raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Its raining men Nice. Just how you like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 .20 here so far with light rain all morning. Looks like the heavy rains miss the interior..and ENE may miss most all together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 .20 here so far with light rain all morning. Looks like the heavy rains miss the interior..and ENE may miss most all together We'll all get into it later on today and more likely tonight into tomorrow, as the trough sharpens. Some of this will be nowcast too, as it always is with summer. This area is already wet, so we don't need 3-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 We'll all get into it later on today and more likely tonight into tomorrow, as the trough sharpens. Some of this will be nowcast too, as it always is with summer. This area is already wet, so we don't need 3-4". Yeah, ORH is +2.11" for the month so far... wet and cool? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 We'll all get into it later on today and more likely tonight into tomorrow, as the trough sharpens. Some of this will be nowcast too, as it always is with summer. This area is already wet, so we don't need 3-4". I'd like 5-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 I'd like 5-7 To drown the munks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 To drown the munks? They had a field day in that area I showed you guys while I was gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 They had a field day in that area I showed you guys while I was gone My father has it out as well. Mice and munks both caught. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Steve better go to LI. He's body surfing across the sound with sand bags Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Meh, summer rains are a bit annoying to follow with the nowcasting necessary. Model consistency is terribly. 6z NAM had BDL area soaked with 5"+ of rain. 12z has them nudging 0.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 FWIW ...today is a big day astronomically in ALB. We see our sunrise/sunset fall inside of the 6:00 AM <-> 8:00 PM window. Sunlight falls to 13 hours and 58 minutes. Then in crashes to 12 hours in the next 5 1/2 weeks. Gonna take a major heat dome to ever see another 90F at this point. It happens, but much tougher to achieve with an April sun angle. He's body surfing across the sound with sand bags Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 He's body surfing across the sound with sand bags LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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