Srain Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 Not to be the party-pooper...but it looks lacking right now to me. Has the very stable "skeleton" appearance. You'd expect that in an SAL environment and likely why the NHC maintained 30% in the near term... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 You'd expect that in an SAL environment and likely why the NHC maintained 30% in the near term... Yep, that's the hard part. How much does the "pouch" shield the VHTs from the SAL air to the north. As long as there is no northerly component to the shear, it should be ok, but according to SHIPS, the shear vector is at 60* right now, which might be why convection has weakened this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 For all we know could be a TD already. NHC just skips TD and goes to TS a lot lately. When systems that are T1.5/T2.0 have a closed circulation and local winds >35kts, it makes complete sense to skip the TD stage. Without recon, you'd never know it was a tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I thought that name was retired too. It should have been for sure... 15 deaths and a billion in damage would have been retired any year other than '05. Well, and MX doesn't retire a lot of storms. I'm convinced Emily is getting revenge for not getting retired the first go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 When systems that are T1.5/T2.0 have a closed circulation and local winds >35kts, it makes complete sense to skip the TD stage. Without recon, you'd never know it was a tropical storm. I have a hunch the 53rd will be heading SE in a couple of days to pre position for any future Atlantic threats... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Won't take much for this to detach from the ITCZ and condense... SSTs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 It should have been for sure... 15 deaths and a billion in damage would have been retired any year other than '05. Well, and MX doesn't retire a lot of storms. I'm convinced Emily is getting revenge for not getting retired the first go around. If karl, a 5.6 billion dollar hurricane didnt get retired, then I dont know what mexico retires. Invest 91 looking good this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 D-MIN should be interesting. Maybe it will show us something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Looking at the handy Alan Huffman/RaleighWx Euro ensemble means provided on AmericanWx, just speculation, one can see how it could go fishing, or maybe deflect North but miss the way out and be a menace from the Southeast Subforum to the SNE Subforum. Glass quarter full optimism. I'm not 100% sold on a fish storm yet, in my humble and amateur opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Looking at the handy Alan Huffman/RaleighWx Euro ensemble means provided on AmericanWx, just speculation, one can see how it could go fishing, or maybe deflect North but miss the way out and be a menace from the Southeast Subforum to the SNE Subforum. Glass quarter full optimism. I'm not 100% sold on a fish storm yet, in my humble and amateur opinion. I agree with you, Ed. I'm not sold on it fishing, either. I'm suspecting the ridge for the weekend is going to trend stronger in the models based on the SOI spike a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 If it ever makes it outside the ITCZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I agree with you, Ed. I'm not sold on it fishing, either. I'm suspecting the ridge for the weekend is going to trend stronger in the models based on the SOI spike a few days ago. Dumb weenie question here. If the ridge gets stronger, that will keep the system further on a due west track more towards the Caribbean Islands then PR and DR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 If I had to make a call, I'd be concerned with the northern islands, Puerto Rico, then the Bahamas/Southeast Florida. However, Emily 2005, Dean 2007, ect ect were all expected to move further north and never did so I am skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Dumb weenie question here. If the ridge gets stronger, that will keep the system further on a due west track more towards the Caribbean Islands then PR and DR? It depends on when the ridge builds. The SOI spike was only a short lived one, so I'm envisioning the models are pretty decent through Wednesday or so with the weakness off the Atlantic Seaboard. My concern is the track after it lifts north of the Greater Antilles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Kind of a rare bullish set of model runs. Cant recall the last time I saw them with that kind of intensity pre formation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Dumb weenie question here. If the ridge gets stronger, that will keep the system further on a due west track more towards the Caribbean Islands then PR and DR? Davey, have fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Close look at vis loops w/ lat/long lines turned on seems to suggest not quite there with West winds South of the Center, but CIMSS upper divergence/lower convergence is good, and CIMSS shear map shows 91L almost perfectly positioned beneath an anti-cylone. As mentioned above (not going to put it in an image, its a slow loader http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif ) with the fairly light shear and healthy sized pouch, I think systems are generally a go for development. I think the NHC 30% for the next 48 hours might be just a touch pessimistic, I think we see a small upgrade in probabilities at the next TWOAT, and I suspect tomorrow's POD may have a following day mention of positioning aircraft for an invest during the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I wrote a discussion on Don and Invest91, for those interested. Couple of troughs will take a swipe at it next week. http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/tropical-storm-don-to-hit-corpus-christi-emily-could-form-soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Yep, that's the hard part. How much does the "pouch" shield the VHTs from the SAL air to the north. As long as there is no northerly component to the shear, it should be ok, but according to SHIPS, the shear vector is at 60* right now, which might be why convection has weakened this morning. Looks like the shear vector is forecast to become easterly by 00Z, and southeasterly by 06Z. So, if the pouch has not already ingested a prohibitive amount of SAL air by that point, I think that is when we'll start to see 91L improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I wrote a discussion on Don and Invest91, for those interested. Couple of troughs will take a swipe at it next week. http://www.examiner....could-form-soon Didn't know you were a fellow Examiner writer. AWESOME!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Didn't know you were a fellow Examiner writer. AWESOME!! Come on, man. Take this stuff to PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I would venture a track something like this with the blue line most likely. Intensity, maybe not as strong in the short-term but very intense in the long-term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 <facetiousness> You know, as many times as Emily has tried to be retired, maybe this will finally be her year...</facetiousness> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I would venture a track something like this with the blue line most likely. Intensity, maybe not as strong in the short-term but very intense in the long-term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I would venture a track something like this with the blue line most likely. Intensity, maybe not as strong in the short-term but very intense in the long-term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 At the very least maybe I'll get some good swells out of this in Myrtle beach next week. I agree this has potential. And far more interesting to track than don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 looks like a serious threat to the NE islands then chances are this recurves away from the US and possible pose a threat to bermuda. Plenty of time watch this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Yep, that's the hard part. How much does the "pouch" shield the VHTs from the SAL air to the north. As long as there is no northerly component to the shear, it should be ok, but according to SHIPS, the shear vector is at 60* right now, which might be why convection has weakened this morning. I take it you don't agree with CUMET's post yesterday about northeasterly shear actually causing the dry air to be advected in from the western side of the circulation? If you believe that, it seems that southerly shear would be worse than northerly shear for the advection of dry air from the SAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 looks like a serious threat to the NE islands then chances are this recurves away from the US and possible pose a threat to bermuda. Plenty of time watch this one. oh god, here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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