bluewave Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 The models are currently showing the potential for NW flow severe storms on Monday.They have us near the jet exit region with good shear and instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Went to thunderfest last night at the PNC....what a beautiful night for a concert.....now its time to crank the AC and get ready for the big heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 I'm pretty sure I've said this before... but you really can't use your own station and then compare its readings to normals of somewhere else. Microclimates abound and strongly affect what is really "normal" at each individual site. Ray, I'm using the normals of Freehold for my station, not any of the urban centers. I just think its interesting to see how some stations are well above normal while other spots near normal for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Ray, I'm using the normals of Freehold for my station, not any of the urban centers. I just think its interesting to see how some stations are well above normal while other spots near normal for the month. Yeah, I don't think you can take the normals from another station and use them to draw any meaningful comparisons. There's not a single official station within a 500-mile radius of you with departures below about +2F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 The models are currently showing the potential for NW flow severe storms on Monday.They have us near the jet exit region with good shear and instability. Agreed...SPC does as well. ...NERN STATES TO THE MIDWEST... LARGE REGION OF POTENTIAL SVR WEATHER WILL UNFOLD ON MONDAY. A SYNOPTIC MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL BRUSH ACROSS THE NERN STATES MONDAY AFTN WITH MODEST HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT. WSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT BOTH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING PWATS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES. CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER QUE/SERN ONT AND PSBLY NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE DAY. AMID INCREASING WNW FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING MONDAY AFTN INSTABILITY...BANDS OF STORMS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND LEE TROUGH FROM CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO PARTS OF NY. WRN PARTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF PA AND NJ BY EVENING. HIGH WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BOWS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN S OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Yeah, I don't think you can take the normals from another station and use them to draw any meaningful comparisons. There's not a single official station within a 500-mile radius of you with departures below about +2F. My temp departures are usually similar to the urban centers, except when good radiational cooling nights dominate, then there's a bit of a disparity. This year NYC versus IMBY June NYC: +1.1 IMBY: +0.8 May NYC: +1.9 IMBY: +1.8 April NYC: +1.8 IMBY: +2.6 March NYC: -0.2 IMBY: +0.5 Feb NYC: +1.4 IMBY: +3.4 Jan NYC: -2.4 IMBY: -2.2 I'd say that's fairly close overall. For this month its kind of unfair to compare right now, as we still have 15 days left of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Today is an A-L-E-X day. WNW flow. JFK is 4-5 degrees above everyone already, except for Newark. Torch all you want. I'm headed to the beach today and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 its 92 outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Today is an A-L-E-X day. WNW flow. JFK is 4-5 degrees above everyone already, except for Newark. Torch all you want. I'm headed to the beach today and tomorrow. It seems to have been like this all summer. This is awesome! This summer is Cano to last year's A-Rod! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Ray, I'm using the normals of Freehold for my station, not any of the urban centers. I just think its interesting to see how some stations are well above normal while other spots near normal for the month. That still may not be applicable. There can still be microclimatic differences even between your house and Freehold. Take Somerville Airport for example... we all know its a pit that gets extra cool on many radiational nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 That still may not be applicable. There can still be microclimatic differences even between your house and Freehold. Take Somerville Airport for example... we all know its a pit that gets extra cool on many radiational nights. There are some really weird nights when Tom's River (KMJX I think?) radiationally cools even better than Westhampton Beach (KFOK)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 That still may not be applicable. There can still be microclimatic differences even between your house and Freehold. Take Somerville Airport for example... we all know its a pit that gets extra cool on many radiational nights. True. I tend to be one of the cooler spots in Monmouth county on good radiational cooling nights, that's where the largest difference would be. Daytime differences are negligible as well as overnight's with winds not calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 There are some really weird nights when Tom's River (KMJX I think?) radiationally cools even better than Westhampton Beach (KFOK)! It borders the northern edge of the New Jersey Pine Barrens. http://www.pineypower.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Upton has us at 90+ for the next 7 days. Would be a nice long heatwave if that happened, but we'll probably have a few 88-89s in there. I hate the heat, but if it's gonna be a wicked summer, lets at least set some records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 The models are currently showing the potential for NW flow severe storms on Monday.They have us near the jet exit region with good shear and instability. Monday is legitimate and I wouldn't rule out a low-end moderate risk with this setup; although, I'd like to see the deep layer/speed shear a little stronger for that sort of thing. But I think we can call this a decent EML--not the best EML but decent. What more can be said. The main thing about Monday is keeping those low level winds from veering too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I think we could see some mid to upper 90s across the area tomorrow, before convection arrives late in the day The 0z Euro has 20C 850mb temps by tomorrow evening: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 1PM roundup TEB: 88 NYC: 87 EWR: 91 LGA: 87 JFK: 86 TTN: 87 ACY: 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Just a quick note. Been following the longer range once past 7/26 and the gfs and ensembles want to build in the atlantic ridge big time with mroe heat on/around 7/28 after a couple of day cool down between the 26th and 28th. Just something to watch as another surge of heat and humidity may be in store after a brief reprieve to end July into the start August. Bottom line, it looks very warm and conistently hot the rest of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 1PM roundup TEB: 88 NYC: 87 EWR: 91 LGA: 87 JFK: 86 TTN: 87 ACY: 87 2PM roundup TEB: 89 NYC: 89 EWR: 92 LGA: 89 JFK: 86 TTN: 90 ACY: 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I knew JFK's winning streak wouldn't last, although you can't even tell the difference between 86 and 89/90. However it better not pull this stunt later this week lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 2PM roundup TEB: 89 NYC: 89 EWR: 92 LGA: 89 JFK: 86 TTN: 90 ACY: 88 3PM Roundup: TEB: 90 NYC: 90 EWR: 93 LGA: 89 JFK: 85 TTN: 90 ACY: 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I knew JFK's winning streak wouldn't last, although you can't even tell the difference between 86 and 89/90. However it better not pull this stunt later this week lol. 20+ mph southerly winds destroy any semblance of heat around here, regardless of time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 88F high here in Monmouth. Beautiful day, moderate humidity, decent breeze, WLY 10-15mph. Still at 6 90F days for the season. Looks like NYC tacked on another, getting ahead of me now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Didn't feel bad outside at all today. That breeze was wonderful. I was sitting in a sidewalk cafe drinking euro type coffee with a friend and felt very comfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Very dry (humidies below 35%) and a decent breeze most of the day made it feel much more like an 85-86 degree day rather than 88-92. Didn't feel bad outside at all today. That breeze was wonderful. I was sitting in a sidewalk cafe drinking euro type coffee with a friend and felt very comfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Didn't feel bad outside at all today. That breeze was wonderful. I was sitting in a sidewalk cafe drinking euro type coffee with a friend and felt very comfortable. I guess we were living in different worlds, lol. Was very hot to me today when I was at work. Though I could definitely go for a fancy strong iced espresso based drink right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I guess we shouldn't complain though. Minneapolis is at 88F right now with a dew point of 80. And they got up to 93 today. Newton, IA is at 97 with a dew of 82 and a heat index of 123F. That is pure hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I guess we were living in different worlds, lol. Was very hot to me today when I was at work. Though I could definitely go for a fancy strong iced espresso based drink right now. I'm guessing he had a Greek style iced Frappe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Very dry (humidies below 35%) and a decent breeze most of the day made it feel much more like an 85-86 degree day rather than 88-92. Indeed. Id rather have low to mid 90s with low humidity and a good breeze than temps in the mid to upper 80's with dews in the high 70's and no wind. I guess we shouldn't complain though. Minneapolis is at 88F right now with a dew point of 80. And they got up to 93 today. Newton, IA is at 97 with a dew of 82 and a heat index of 123F. That is pure hell. A dew of 80 must be hell on Earth. What a disgusting airmass that must be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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