Isotherm Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Holy crap it's 78 degrees here. Feels like fall. Lol, only after being 100/76 for three days can 78/70 feel like fall. Amazing how the body adapts. Just as 60F in mid winter feels like a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Lol, only after being 100/76 for three days can 78/70 feel like fall. Amazing how the body adapts. Just as 60F in mid winter feels like a torch. Dews are much lower here. Currently 78/61 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 There is currently 20-40kts of effective bulk shear over the whole area, there is a pocket of elevated instability, lapse rates are ok but not great and that line in PA is looking pretty healthy. I don't see how we don't get a good round of very heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Lol at the 20kts of bulk shear post. That appeared on mesoanalysis because I sneezed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Lol, only after being 100/76 for three days can 78/70 feel like fall. Amazing how the body adapts. Just as 60F in mid winter feels like a torch. So true. I remember feeling like I was roasting this past February when we hit 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 So true. I remember feeling like I was roasting this past February when we hit 60. 90's tomorrow, according to NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 GFS joins the NAM camp now at 12z. Dry thru 8pm tonight. Looking at radar, I cant see how that is possible, but both GFS and NAM have the precip breaking up as it approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 So true. I remember feeling like I was roasting this past February when we hit 60. Seriously it feels like fall outside lol. Especially because it's cloudy and the london plane trees are dropping some leaves (which looks yellow brown) because it's been so dry here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Seriously it feels like fall outside lol. Especially because it's cloudy and the london plane trees are dropping some leaves (which looks yellow brown) because it's been so dry here. Its because dew points are only 60-61 in our location. Very refreshing with the temps only 75-80 areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 for those of you who think i've become too much of a heat lover..... i bring you THIS have to use this link because the forum filter blocks out the f bomb in the url feel free to submit as much as you have. it will only make the archive more epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Thru July 24: JFK: +5.7 NYC: +4.4 LGA: +4.0 EWR: +6.1 ISP: +3.7 it may come down a tad but not many forecasters predicted that warm of a july for us. for those of you who think i've become too much of a heat lover..... i bring you THIS have to use this link because the forum filter blocks out the f bomb in the url feel free to submit as much as you have. it will only make the archive more epic. w w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 12z GFS now supports the euro. No major heat late this week. By major, I mean no 95+ temps. Tomorrow will be close to 90 and above for many. As will Friday + Saturday. But a real heat outbreak, seems less and less likely now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 12z GFS now supports the euro. No major heat late this week. By major, I mean no 95+ temps. Tomorrow will be close to 90 and above for many. As will Friday + Saturday. But a real heat outbreak, seems less and less likely now. how does next Monday look, i have a 5:57am tee time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Radar is looking good to the West for those wanting rain (me)...filling in over western Jersey and NE PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Radar is looking good to the West for those wanting rain (me)...filling in over western Jersey and NE PA Latest HRRR brings that batch of convection currently over NE PA through N/C NJ and into NYC by mid to late afternoon (probably after 3pm). Heaviest of which should be directed towards CNJ/PHL area. T-storm parameters are not as favorable from NYC northeastward, but some needed rains are likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Radar is looking good to the West for those wanting rain (me)...filling in over western Jersey and NE PA Marine layer is a b*tch, lets see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Marine layer is a b*tch, lets see what happens. Yea winds here have generally been out of the E/SE which is a storm-killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Marine layer is a b*tch, lets see what happens. 80/70 here, certainly no marine layer. But it appears NE NJ/NYC and LI are in a completely different airmass than my area right now. You guys are truly feeling like autumn with 60F dews and temps in the 70s. CNJ is still very sultry, so I'd expect the best T-storm action to be CNJ southwestward towards PHL most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Yup. Lets see this play out. NAM and GFS are showing this precip pretty accurately, as currently positioned. But they both destroy it as it gets closer and closer, due to the marine layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 80/70 here, certainly no marine layer. But it appears NE NJ/NYC and LI are in a completely different airmass than my area right now. You guys are truly feeling like autumn with 60F dews and temps in the 70s. CNJ is still very sultry, so I'd expect the best T-storm action to be CNJ southwestward towards PHL most likely. Even lower now. LGA is reporting 78 and a fabulous 57 degree dp. NYC is 79/62 EWR is 80/64 JFK is 78/63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 I'm at 81/67 right now. Feeling much more humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Feels much cooler and windier than the morning. Ugh can't catch a break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 80/70 here, certainly no marine layer. But it appears NE NJ/NYC and LI are in a completely different airmass than my area right now. You guys are truly feeling like autumn with 60F dews and temps in the 70s. CNJ is still very sultry, so I'd expect the best T-storm action to be CNJ southwestward towards PHL most likely. Yeah bro, totally different up here. Definite marine layer in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Those storms to the west, anyone think they'll make it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Those storms to the west, anyone think they'll make it? They're oriented NW-SE with the cold front, and they should make it through NYC. Doubt anything severe pops though with the strong marine layer entrenched in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Most will get some beneficial rains out of it...down to 73 here...what a far cry from Fri and even Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Rain seems like its holding. At the very least, it looks like a good soaking. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 12z GFS now supports the euro. No major heat late this week. By major, I mean no 95+ temps. Tomorrow will be close to 90 and above for many. As will Friday + Saturday. But a real heat outbreak, seems less and less likely now. Guidance has been tetering back and forth between runs in bringing the extreme heat north of Philly but this is a hot pattern starting the end of this week and through Saturday and most guidance maintains a warm and overall dry pattern into August. I wouldnt be surprised if the 12z ecm and 18z gfs were hot again into NYC and north. 850s are in the 18 - 21 range rather than 21(+) on the 12z gfs but I think EWR and metro places get 95 + Fri and Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Rain seems like its holding. At the very least, it looks like a good soaking. Fingers crossed. Indeed looks like a good soaking is imminent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Guidance has been tetering back and forth between runs in bringing the extreme heat north of Philly but this is a hot pattern starting the end of this week and through Saturday and most guidance maintains a warm and overall dry pattern into August. I wouldnt be surprised if the 12z ecm and 18z gfs were hot again into NYC and north. 850s are in the 18 - 21 range rather than 21(+) on the 12z gfs but I think EWR and metro places get 95 + Fri and Saturday. 18-21 850's are for only 1-2 days on GFS. And in the extended, the entire ridge gets broken down. 0z euro kept the ridge in place and it wouldve affected us past day 10. I would bet money that August will be below normal to maximum +1 for NYC. I was all over this past mega heat surge, from 10 days out. But the long range, lately does not support major or sustained heat. Of course, as you said, it can change in the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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