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Next shot at Severe storms: next Thu/Fri?


free_man

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yeah pretty capped off. yeah maybe looking west/north for something then traversing southeastward. the cap is definitely weaker from RUT SW to ALB etc....so maybe some stuff fires off and then moves through with that quasi-warm front sometime late evening.

that's actually what the BTV wrf is showing.

I think that's the only way we get convection in here is with initiation from the Dacks east into the Greens.

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I think that's the only way we get convection in here is with initiation from the Dacks east into the Greens.

yeah tend to agree. the only other thing i could see would be maybe eastern areas get some kind of isolated pseudo-elevated type stuff at night in association with that instability burst that shoots through. after we lose the SB parameters during the late evening, things actually destabilize again for a time around midnight +/-

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Those NAM soundings definitely show a remnant EML with the way the lapse rate steepens around 650mb and also the extreme drying at that level too. Hopefully we can get some night time stuff to tap into that.

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Those NAM soundings definitely show a remnant EML with the way the lapse rate steepens around 650mb and also the extreme drying at that level too. Hopefully we can get some night time stuff to tap into that.

It'll definitely be there through thurs. Just not sure if anything will be able to get going tomorrow south of central vt/nh/central maine. Anything that does will be very isolated most likely.

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NAM is still pretty aggressive for Thursday aftn. Euro has what looks like some sort of prefrontal trough in eastern mass during Thursday aftn with that actual cold front occurring after 00z. Weak s/w and accompanying heightfalls as well. Looks like it would yield some thunder, but it does seem to argue best tstms might occur in northern New England where dynamics are much better. It actually looks better than 00z, however, so we'll see.

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It'll definitely be there through thurs. Just not sure if anything will be able to get going tomorrow south of central vt/nh/central maine. Anything that does will be very isolated most likely.

I doubt anything pops during the day. Probably will take an MCS to get rolling like we had last year in that pseudo-EML case.

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I doubt anything pops during the day. Probably will take an MCS to get rolling like we had last year in that pseudo-EML case.

Maybe we can look to the north and west of Watertown NY later tomorrow.

I wouldn't totally rule out something tomorrow...maybe rolling into wrn areas late day.

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Currently, hi resolution sat imagery and radar from the upper portion of Michigan are indicating robust CB growth along the periphery of old MCS activity. Rain processed air is interfaced there along a diffused warm front where temperatures of approaching 90 and higher DPs are in the process of advecting toward Ontario.

Earlier this morning there was strong MCS activity that developed along the warm front as it was approaching northern OH. I think we should watch this field of intensifying CB activity this eveing as a possible rip through southern Ontario. I have beening thinking since this morning that this could playout similarly with a NW-SE propagatin nocturnal MCS first through Ontario and into upstate NY by 1am and then farther east during the wee-hours of the morning.

These are not always modeled correctly. Certainly ... any such error would drastically underevaluate the soil moisture in its wake which would plausibly throw error into the DP prognostics thereafter. I am also noticing that 72F DP is routine across southern Lower Michigan, which is our source - making me question the DP progs as they are in MOS. I'm considering this first, then if we get something through the area just prior to dawn overnight that might be interesting evaluation for tomorrow.

I am noticing that the FRH grid is ever warming in the NAM solutions for Thursday, yet the MOS products are trending downward. One of them is in error -

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LOL...Pumice-mammatus???

post-33-0-20285700-1307486073.jpg

Sweet, where is that from. Watched NATGEO on super tornado outbreak, saw some good new vids, they have this special on now about why the weather has gone wacko, WV is the gist. Had to wonder about this one though when they said Egypts revolution was caused by drought.

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Soundings still look impressive on the NAM for tomorrow night... Maybe we'll get a surprise.

NAM gets a nice tstorm(maybe severe) line in here for Thursday afternoon/evening as well. Should be a fun couple of days.

looks like perfect timing of coldfront

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The NAM and GFS (besides having 2500-4500 j/kg of cape under a nice EML) have relatively impressive looking hodographs for tomorrow evening. Winds weak around 500mb but pick up to near 35-40 knots under that level out of the NW.

I'm starting to get a feeling we see a nice MCS tomorrow evening during the bruins game.

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Sweet, where is that from. Watched NATGEO on super tornado outbreak, saw some good new vids, they have this special on now about why the weather has gone wacko, WV is the gist. Had to wonder about this one though when they said Egypts revolution was caused by drought.

It's from that Chilean volcano going off. Blew it's top to 40,000+ft.

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Still looks decent for severe to make it down into SNE late tomorrow aftn/evening. There also appears to be a chance for some sort of MCS or at least some sct activity possible into wrn areas this evening and then maybe later on tonight over the rest of SNE. However, those chances are highly dependent on what happens upstream today.

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The one thing that's kind of weird is the west to perhaps wnw flow that will be around. It's kind of a weird direction to have for tstms, but I could see some areas specially south of the pike back around to wsw and also the front will be coming down from the north, so that's a little better for convergence I guess.

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