CT Rain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 12z NAM BUFKIT soundings. Ohhhhh boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 12z NAM BUFKIT soundings. Ohhhhh boy. Smoke em if you got em? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I don't know what would do more damage..an EF3 or showing Wiz that RUC sounding. 12z NAM has the EML with near 8 c/km by this afternoon in CT. GFS FTW. Hodographs are just nuts too with the NAM keeping winds backed all afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 ALB launching 16z balloon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 12z NAM has the EML with near 8 c/km by this afternoon in CT. GFS FTW. Hodographs are just nuts too with the NAM keeping winds backed all afternoon. You gonna head out and chase this afternoon for the station or do they need you in the studio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 12z NAM has the EML with near 8 c/km by this afternoon in CT. GFS FTW. Hodographs are just nuts too with the NAM keeping winds backed all afternoon. Just saw..kind of busy now, but man that's nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Yeah RUC has winds very backed in metro NYC and areas northeast into SNE which enhances tornado threat. Will be interesting to see what SPC does at 1630. Strongly agreed...I woke up about an hour ago (slept in on the wrong day) and was very impressed with what im looking at especially on the RUC and the latest mesoanalysis. The mid level lapse rates are very impressive for this area and this time of year..over 8-8.5 down towards Southeast New York & New York City. The degree of surface based instability juxtaposed with favorable effective bulk shear and backing winds on the RUC is certainly concerning. The most favorable area for discrete supercells is likely from Southern VY southward through Western SNE and Eastern NY extending southwest towards Northern NJ and NYC. It's been a while since I've seen decent 0-1km SRH and EHI parameters forecast in this part of the country in conjunction with moderate to high instability & a favorable EML in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Just saw that guys jumk..kind of busy now, but man that's nice. WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 HOLY CRAP!!!!! WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Will will probably have to take another shower after he sees this sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Any idea of when we'll see an MCD go up? I say by 16z with watch up by 1630z. We could even see an MCD for risk upgrade possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 A little uneasy about the storms west of BGM having a really tough time maintaining updrafts given the fact parameters there look favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Talk about a field goal sounding for this area. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 those early evening 5-7pm soundings/parameters at BDL are nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 A little uneasy about the storms west of BGM having a really tough time maintaining updrafts given the fact parameters there look favorable. Dryer air at mid-levels???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 A little uneasy about the storms west of BGM having a really tough time maintaining updrafts given the fact parameters there look favorable. What's the cause? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 those early evening 5-7pm soundings/parameters at BDL are nuts. If we could just hold off the storms until then..which seems highly unlikely. Looks like a 2:00 -3:00 timeframe instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 A little uneasy about the storms west of BGM having a really tough time maintaining updrafts given the fact parameters there look favorable. It's certainly interesting. They are riding on the periphery of around ~35 kts of 0-6km bulk shear and 200 m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH. There's 5000+ j/kg of SBCAPE to the east/southeast of those updrafts, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 It's certainly interesting. They are riding on the periphery of around ~35 kts of 0-6km bulk shear and 200 m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH. There's 5000+ j/kg of SBCAPE to the east/southeast of those updrafts, too. There's still a cap at the base of that EML. That's the issue here I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Will will probably have to take another shower after he sees this sounding This is a hand thrower day; if all that potential doesn't get reaslized somewhere, you gice up - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 There's still a cap at the base of that EML. That's the issue here I think. It's a "Space Balls" cap - some Mt top turret will poke through and that will pop the balloon at that location, triggering operation vacu-suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 There's still a cap at the base of that EML. That's the issue here I think. Could very well be. The EML is doing it's work right now over Central PA...check out the surface based CAPE on the mesoanalysis in juxtaposition with mid level lapse rates around 8 and approaching favorable bulk shear...5000+ j/kg right now at the 15z analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Interesting, all this profiling going on and SPC doesn't even have a meso discussion for the area. They pulled trigger on a watch in NY and PA well enough, but seem to have checked out - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Winds are already west out ahead of that line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Based on the discussion here, is CT the jackpot for potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Well in a terribly boring period like June I guess it's worth keeping an eye on days like today. But in general ...devoting much time on severe wx around here is comparable to a die-hard weenie tracking all the potential snowstorms for Atlanta. Even if it happens that someone does get an F1 tornado, it will be our equivalent of the 4 inch blizzard in ATL while ORH gets 28" from the same storm. They are laughing at us... jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I'm going to chase later today in the CT area, if anyone wants to tag along let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Taking a look at some of the soundings, its pretty clear some are underestimating the severe potential today. Just because strong tornados are rare in NE doesn't mean they don't occur. Some of the latest numbers are outright scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 OT but this is down right fascinating: that MCS that moved through the Midwest and off our coast yesterday turned S and is circumnavigating the ridge, but is taking on tropical characteristics... ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH. THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NB-Weather Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Wow, if that storm near Williamsburg is a sign to come.. todays going to be interesting.. 68 dBZ, 40k tops, VIL of 70 kg/m2 and it only just formed 5-10 minutes ago.. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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