Paid the tolls...moving into winter

[nzucker]

I agree that you don't just forget about the rest of winter if December sucks....but I ran some numbers when December sucked in Mod/strong Ninas and they are not pretty. You really want a strong December in this setup.

The exception to the rule however was Dec 1955....it was cold but pretty awful for snow, but later on it produced. But the rest were horrible if December was bad.

The problem is again the sample size. We only know of a handful of moderate/strong Niñas, and only a smaller amount that occurred with -PDO/-NAO cycle. I agree that getting off to a good start always helps, but I think this is going to be one of those winters where the pattern shifts around a lot so it may not be as important. We already are seeing that we're going to be working with a -NAO and some cold air this winter so I'm not too worried if not a lot of snow is on the ground by Christmas.

[OKpowdah]

Yes, but you want the SE ridge to be strong so you can get SW flow/gradient events. Not mega strong like 98-99 but definitely present. Just look at 07-08. You do best when you don't have this ultra-suppressive cold pattern that we're getting now. This doesn't look like a great pattern to me for NNE that's coming up, except perhaps the upslope areas. Sort of dry and just flurrying off and on.

It wouldn't necessarily be my pattern of choice, but I will take it over a strong SE ridge, which following Nina climo is more dominant in January and/or February. Also I discuss upcoming patterns in the interest of the entire region, not MBY.

I just think people often exaggerate how "wintry" December is supposed to be. It's generally a benign month, especially in the first week or two. We're just getting going by Christmas. Also SSTs are still in the 50s by where skier lives so that's a factor that you have to take into account for coastal locations. I've lived in the NYC suburbs all my life and I know we're almost always bare ground in early December, but typically pretty snowy in February and early March. Last winter was a "good" December and I had around 13" of snow in the NYC metro area...February was nearly 50". Obviously a crazy anomaly but we just don't get the big ones on the coast in early December. 12/19 is around the cut-off I've found.

yes

[OKpowdah]

Right, that was my point.

Also I'm pretty sure he was exaggerating

Always knew you were one of the sharper ones around here!

[skierinvermont]

I think the 12z Euro sort of cut the D9-10 storm right? Well the 00z Euro has a low over western NC at 240.. earthlight saying something about -NAO rebuilding.

[nzucker]

ECM shows nothing until Day 10 when there's a cutter that's mostly rain..maybe some snow/mix in NNE. -NAO is building back in though and there's a huge ridge over the Bering Strait and amplifying.

[OKpowdah]

00z Euro has one heck of a bomb backing into New Brunswick Monday evening

[ORH_wxman]

I think the 12z Euro sort of cut the D9-10 storm right? Well the 00z Euro has a low over western NC at 240.. earthlight saying something about -NAO rebuilding.

We're likely to see the D9-10 pattern coming up fluctuate a lot in the coming days...we will have a -NAO in some form or another for the foreseeable future.

That time frame seems to want to have a system.

[ORH_wxman]

00z Euro has one heck of a bomb backing into New Brunswick Monday evening

If only the block was stronger.

[Logan11]

I remember a winter in the early 90's (maybe 91-92) where we had a relentless northwest flow a lot of the time and every storm formed east and hit the maritimes more. I'm thinking of the year that Moncton, NB got 56 inches in that famous Noreaster. I dunno if that was a La Nina or what, but it was frustrating. I do think it was a good year for the LES belts.

If only the block was stronger.

[cpickett79]

blizz wake up! do you see a shot of some snow flurries this am.....or am i hallucinating that the WV loop looks interesting.

off to work

[moneypitmike]

blizz wake up! do you see a shot of some snow flurries this am.....or am i hallucinating that the WV loop looks interesting.

off to work

2-4.

[MaineJayhawk]

Piles of meh on the roadside with the latest guidance.

[MaineJayhawk]

... although the good Rev will be here shortly to raise our spirits with a region-wide coating.

[Damage In Tolland]

blizz wake up! do you see a shot of some snow flurries this am.....or am i hallucinating that the WV loop looks interesting.

off to work

Been up since 4:45.. I run and then shower early before I log on so I'm not likely to get on much before 5:45

I don't think today sees much of anything other than clouds..Some drier air in mid levels moves in later

Still looks good to me for Sunday/Sunday night

[CoastalWx]

Piles of meh on the roadside with the latest guidance.

I like how it looks down the road.

[moneypitmike]

I like how it looks down the road. Big changes at day 10.

fixed

[MaineJayhawk]

I like how it looks down the road.

Me too. I was talking about this weekend. MoneyPitEeyore doesn't want to hear it, though.

[moneypitmike]

Me too. I was talking about this weekend. MoneyPitEeyore doesn't want to hear it, though.

Lol. Thanks for noticing me.

I love that there is potentiail but very frustrated that the block is so close to being positioned/strong for great things--but yet so far.

[WeatherX]

Snow showers in the forecast Sunday evening here.......just some mood enhancing flakes.....It's a prelude to what is coming shortly after.

[CoastalWx]

Me too. I was talking about this weekend. MoneyPitEeyore doesn't want to hear it, though.

I think Will mentioned it, and I do agree that the Pacific may become more hostile. That will probably mean more of a gradient with potential Miller B's and/or swfe. Hopefully it's not too hostile, but we may be thanking the block to our northeast when this happens.

[ski MRG]

Snow showers in the forecast Sunday evening here.......just some mood enhancing flakes.....It's a prelude to what is coming shortly after.

That's the Spirit.

[weathafella]

This thread has come back to life. Looks like mid month for something big.

[moneypitmike]

This thread has come back to life. Looks like mid month for something big.

Only 12 days until the middle of the month:)

[ski MRG]

This thread has come back to life. Looks like mid month for something big.

You haven't read NZucker's posts evidently.

[WeatherX]

That's the Spirit.

It's tough to keep things in perspective sometimes.....We're locked into a cold 15 to perhaps 20 days and we all know it only takes a slight permutation in the grand scale to light this place on fire....

It's coming

[ski MRG]

It's tough to keep things in perspective sometimes.....We're locked into a cold 15 to perhaps 20 days and we all know it only takes a slight permutation in the grand scale to light this place on fire....

It's coming

It is. We probaly won't track it in from 10 days out either. The threat will gather quickly from just over the horizon.

[WeatherX]

It is. We probaly won't track it in from 10 days out either. The threat will gather quickly from just over the horizon.

Most of the best ones sneak up on you.....no need to focus on much past a few days with this pattern.

[ski MRG]

Most of the best ones sneak up on you.....no need to focus on much past a few days with this pattern.

But, but, if we don't get snow in the next 10 days Winter will be over!! This is a La Nina year and everyone knows December our only shot. What total horsesh*t. This year won't fit any mold. Big Winter, Big Big Winter. Time to play in the cold.Later.

[WeatherX]

But, but, if we don't get snow in the next 10 days Winter will be over!! This is a La Nina year and everyone knows December our only shot. What total horsesh*t. This year won't fit any mold. Big Winter, Big Big Winter. Time to play in the cold.Later.

Have a good one Pete, I've got a busy day ahead as well.

Keep the faith

[mahk_webstah]

I have to keep reminding myself it is Dec 3. In my 2 winters here the significant snow didn't start til mid December. For a person who doesn't read this board they are just thinking we are having the normal stepdown to winter while we get on this board and pull out our testicle hairs with each run. Sometimes too much knowledge isn't helpful.