JoMo Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0425.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 if both days live up do their potential and count as one outbreak this may be in the top 5 outbreaks pure numbers wise. super outbreak has 148 but it was likley much higher if if that same outbreak occured today. I say 65 today(through 12z friday) and maybe 65tomorrow for starters I think 169 is the number to beat for >24 hour period (May 29-30, 2004). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 if both days live up do their potential and count as one outbreak this may be in the top 5 outbreaks pure numbers wise. super outbreak has 148 but it was likley much higher if if that same outbreak occured today. I say 65 today(through 12z friday) and maybe 65tomorrow for starters Yeah I figured go big, although I'm going to bust high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md0425.html MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0425 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0133 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL/NE TX...ERN OK. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 141833Z - 142100Z EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL POTENTIALLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE BEGINNING IN 20-22Z TIME FRAME...COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD TO NEWD. DAMAGING HAIL IS LIKELY...SOME EXCEEDING 3 INCHES DIAMETER. THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR TORNADOES AS TSTMS MATURE AND MOVE INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST/HIGH-SRH AIR MASS...WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT. 18Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE JUST E OF US-81 CORRIDOR IN OK THEN SWWD ACROSS JACK COUNTY TX...WHERE VIS IMAGERY INDICATES CONCENTRATION OF DEEP CU. DRYLINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX/ADVECT EWD ACROSS I-35 FROM PVJ AREA NWD...BEFORE DECELERATING AROUND 23Z. TX DRYLINE SEGMENT SHOULD MOVE EWD TO JUST W OF DFW METROPLEX...NEAR PRESENT LOCATION OF CONFLUENCE LINE THAT EXTENDS NNEWD FROM HILL COUNTRY. DRYLINE MAY SHARPEN FURTHER...GIVEN COMBINATION OF 1. CONTINUING MOST ADVECTION TO ITS E... 2. BACKING 850-MB WINDS EVIDENT PAST COUPLE HOURS IN CENTRAL OK VWP/PROFILER DATA...AND 3. GEOMETRY OF PRESSURE FALLS OVER KS/OK THAT MAY KEEP SLGT ELY COMPONENT TO SFC FLOW IN MOIST SECTOR IN CORRIDOR FROM OSAGE COUNTY SWD TO DUA AREA THROUGH 00Z. EXPECT CONTINUED STG SFC HEATING...DEW POINTS RANGING FROM UPPER 50S F IN NRN OK TO MID 60S FROM ADM-ATOKA AREA SWD ACROSS RED RIVER...AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT. THIS WILL BOOST MLCAPE TO 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE OVER PORTIONS N TX AND SERN OK BASED ON MODIFIED 18Z FWD/OUN RAOBS...AND 1500-2000 J/KG NEAR OK/KS BORDER. MEANWHILE...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN...AS ALREADY EVIDENT WITH LOWERING OF 50-KT MIDLEVEL ISOTACH AT TCU PROFILER. EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE TO 50-60 KT. HODOGRAPH SIZE...NOW INDICATING SOME WEAKNESSES AROUND 1-3 KM AGL...WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER ERN OK...BECOMING POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PRODUCTION. STG ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT OF MEAN WIND AND DEEP-SHEAR VECTORS...RELATIVE TO DRYLINE...INDICATES STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS AFTER INITIATION. COVERAGE SWD INTO CENTRAL TX SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED/CONDITIONAL. SRN END OF KS CONVECTIVE ARC REGIME -- SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 424 FOR DETAILS -- MAY BACKBUILD INTO PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN OK AFTER ABOUT 21Z AS WELL. ..EDWARDS.. 04/14/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Not too much cap left at OKC and disturbance is still well West. Dewpoint is 60ºF, OUN is one humid side of the dryline with South winds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Wait what? You mean they don't cancel classes on severe weather days because everyone will be out chasing anyway?!? It's a non-meteorology course, so no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Based on that last MD what are the odds they go high at the next outlook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 14, 2011 Author Share Posted April 14, 2011 dry line just went through OKC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Hearing a high risk is coming.......not sure how reliable the information is though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 14, 2011 Author Share Posted April 14, 2011 Based on that last MD what are the odds they go high at the next outlook? a decent shot i think, >67% ...everything is perfect as far as timing goes.... OK into AR The storms will move NNE at a modercate clip but the while line system to only edge east slowy which will mean high coverage of severe events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 14, 2011 Author Share Posted April 14, 2011 first watch up in KS by the low as expected NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 215 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SWRN KS AND DRY LINE EXTENDING SEWD THRU SCENTRAL KS. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE VEERING SHEAR PROFILES...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
upsloper Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Fort Worth will, cap looks as strong as at 7 am... Eyeballing the WV loop, approaching disturbance may be 5 or 6 hours away from working that cap, although I'd expect the dry line to have passed by then... HRRR and RUC have the dry line west of Fort Worth even after 03Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Something sure is going to have to make up for not having a lot of moisture. Tulsa has 78/59 and wichita has 76/58. Could be a little bit moist south of Tulsa though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 14, 2011 Author Share Posted April 14, 2011 Something sure is going to have to make up for not having a lot of moisture. Tulsa has 78/59 and wichita has 76/58. Could be a little bit moist south of Tulsa though. its fine..cold temps aloft make it up MLCAPE at 2000 for those areas now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 14, 2011 Author Share Posted April 14, 2011 PDS watch I'm assuming SPC AWW 141925 WW 135 TORNADO OK TX 141930Z - 150300Z AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 15NNE BVO/BARTLESVILLE OK/ - 40SSE GYI/SHERMAN TX/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /36WSW OSW - 37ENE DFW/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..4 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 14, 2011 Author Share Posted April 14, 2011 SPC kept it moderate...not sure i agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 14, 2011 Author Share Posted April 14, 2011 MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. ..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER... THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. DISCUSSION...DRY LINE LOCATED VICINITY I-35 CORRIDOR WITH THE AIR MASS NOW VERY UNSTABLE EWD ACROSS OK. WITH LITTLE REMAINING CINH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY OFF THE DRY LINE AND MOVE THRU A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS. INITIALLY VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE RISK GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AS THE STRONG UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS AND STRONG TORNADOES. DRY LINE VERY LIKELY WILL MOVE LITTLE EWD FROM CURRENT POSITION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING ON W EDGE OF WATCH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 14, 2011 Author Share Posted April 14, 2011 Nope... NOT PDS. yes it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Yep it's PDS, 90/60 tornado probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 yes it is my bad... I just deleted my post haha. The original page showed that it was a normal tornado watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Storms in NE and KS have quarter size hail already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Reflectivity values 15-20 dBZ on the dryline. Those plumes will probably go through the cap within the next half hour based on the OUN sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Storms in NE and KS have quarter size hail already That middle cell looks to be showing signs of rotation as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 I tried my best to get the day off from work to head down there for today, but no luck...So I guess I'll be following with all of you on here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 A friend of mine in Norman just posted a picture on facebook of pretty deep cumulus approaching the city 5 minutes ago, definitely about to explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 center cell now has a hook on the southern end.... edit...looks like another cell formed just behind it to give the appearance of a hook..we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Reflectivity values 15-20 dBZ on the dryline. Those plumes will probably go through the cap within the next half hour based on the OUN sounding. Just watched the dryline go thru here; stuff is going to explode within the next hour to my east...maybe within the next 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed Stough Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 I think we are going to see some long-track tornadoes. I am glad they went PDS on the Tornado Watch, this looks to be a classic tornado outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 I'll be honest with the PDS watch out, I am a bit surprised they didn't go to a High risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 The CU field is looking rather impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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