janetjanet998 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 OVER 50 dbZ ALREADY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA WESTERN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSOURI FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM 600 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER IA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND SPREAD INTO WESTERN IL. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN IL OR PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 516 WWUS20 KWNS 032256 SEL2 SPC WW 032256 IAZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-WIZ000-040500- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 82 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 600 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA WESTERN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSOURI FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM 600 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF OTTUMWA IOWA TO 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF DUBUQUE IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER IA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND SPREAD INTO WESTERN IL. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN IL OR PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN WI. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040. ...HART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 it's funny watching the mad scramble happen on spotter net. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 That's what explosive development looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Big towers/anvil to the west. Shooting west near Ollie Iowa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Wow, over 2 inch hail marker popping up already, almost 50,000 foot tops. Took only 3 scans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 65 dBZ up to 33kft. Baseballs anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Wow, over 2 inch hail marker popping up already, almost 50,000 foot tops. Took only 3 scans. The only reason it probably isn't already producing hail that large is that they just haven't had enough time to recycle through the updraft (probably water coated hail right now). But it should shortly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Initiation timing is about right on schedule. Now we'll see how intense and prolific this scenario becomes even with lower than expected dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Incredible knuckles on the back sheared anvil!! Holy ****! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Incredible knuckles on the back sheared anvil!! Holy ****! I don't even work there anymore, but pictures would be great for spotter training at DVN. I can imagine it's quite the site, that updraft went up like a rocket so the reverse convection must be equally intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 76 dBZ (11kft) on the base scan now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 I was not expecting any storms around here. The NWS suggested anything good would be well south. That northern cell is something I have to watch. It may nail me or move across the south side of CR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 On 30 heading west to the northern cell. currently east of Lowden, IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 nice cell blowing up over Kush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 I was not expecting any storms around here. The NWS suggested anything good would be well south. That northern cell is something I have to watch. It may nail be or move across the south side of CR. Agree. I wasn't expecting any around here in North Liberty either. Was expecting farther south. Well, I'm getting a new roof in 2 weeks anyways, although the northern storm may go north of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 nice cell blowing up over Kush Yeah, I did not expect initiation there so early with so strong a cap. Looks like there's a possibility the whole line from Manhattan/KC on ne might light up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Northern storm top flowing towards KDVN at 125 kts! The storm top divergence must be incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Crazy fast initiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 West of Sigourney. Cell looks incredible. Getting some great pics already. Flanking the cell as it comes in from the west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 109 WWUS20 KWNS 032320 SEL3 SPC WW 032320 KSZ000-MOZ000-040500- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 83 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 620 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS NORTHERN MISSOURI EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM 620 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT. HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANHATTAN KANSAS TO 10 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 82... DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY ALONG AND NORTH OF A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST KS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS EVENING. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORMS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO BECOME MORE OF A THREAT THIS EVENING AS THE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040. ...HART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 nice cell blowing up over Kush nice it was...had a some nickels, lots of pennies and peas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Big hail in northeastern Iowa County, 75 dBZ to 20kft and a long TBSS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 my surprise anvil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 23Z Severe Weather Analysis. The Quincy, IL-Decatur,IL-Burlington, IA-Columia, MO is showing the highest instability, with still Quincy, IL holding the greatest threat of severe weather. 23Z indices show surface based CAPE around 2200(j/kg), 0-3KM Shear a tad bit lower but still around 55 knots. EHI's a bit higher at 3.4, and the 0-3KM SRH been holding right around 430 m/s. Values supporting F2/F3 isolated tornado, wind gusts 70 knots and hail around 2" across this area. 23Z analysis http://smartwxmodel.net/severe.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 wsall cloud appears to be getting going on the northen cell 1 KM HEL >300 head of it may be the right side of a splitter but already merging with stuff SW of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Also shows up on SW - little trick with SW for big hail Yep, TBSS will show up with high spectrum width (since it isn't a "real" echo and subsequently has a large spectrum of velocities). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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