janetjanet998 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 SPC meso page as well as local radar VADS show the LLJ of 75 kts at this time over KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Wowza at the new tornado ingredients, decent area of 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Some love for Monday too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 SPC meso page as well as local radar VADS show the LLJ of 75 kts at this time over KS NAM was closest to this, albeit it 5 kts weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 DVN..still doesn't seem too bullish TO THE SOUTH...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WAS LAGGING WELL TO THE SOUTH. AN AXIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S REACHED FROM TX TO E CENTRAL KS. ALOFT...MOISTURE AT 850 MB WAS LACKING AS WELL. AT 00Z...THE 850 MB MOISTURE RETURN WAS LIMITED TO E TX INTO SE OK AND WRN AR. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WAS INDICTED BY VAD WIND PROFILERS AND THE PROFILER NETWORK WITH 925 TO 850 SW WINDS FROM 60 TO NEARLY 80 KTS FROM W TX INTO WRN IA. POOR MOISTURE INITIALIZATION BY THE AMERICAN MODELS WAS AGAIN AN ISSUE WITH THE 00Z RUN...WITH THE WRF/NAM CLOSEST TO REALITY WITH SURFACE AND 850 MB DEWPOINTS. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET HAS NOT LIKELY TAPPED INTO THE GULF MOISTURE RETURN SO FAR TONIGHT AND THUS MOISTURE RETURN AND ASSOCIATED NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL NOT LIKELY BE AN ISSUE EARLY THIS MORNING. RECENT FOG CHANNEL ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN OVER EASTERN OK AND AR...WHICH IS PROGGED TO SURGE NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY. THIS WAS BEST DEPICTED BY A BLEND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THESE SOLUTIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AND GFS NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN IA INTO LAKE MI BY MIDNIGHT. RECENT STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER EASTERN SD INDICATE THIS LOW IS ALREADY ON THE MOVE EASTWARD. BASED ON A SLIGHTLY SLOWER...DRIER SOLUTION...WILL COUNT ON MORNING SUNSHINE AND THE SURFACE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. CURRENT BATCH OF SHOWERS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR MAY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST EARLY...THEN A STRONG CAP OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION TO ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT REACHES THE WESTERN CWA AROUND 21Z...THEN PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. WITH WARM SECTOR AIRMASS LIKELY SEEING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...CAPES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...AND DEEP SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY AND THE SLIGHT RISK SPC HAS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IS REASONABLE AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING. LOT sounds sort of indifferent IT APPEARS THAT A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF WARM MOIST AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LEADING TO AROUND 1200-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. OF MORE CONCERN IS IS THE KINEMATIC FIELD. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES UPWARDS OF 40 KT OF 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR AND HODOGRAPHS ADVERTISE SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL VEERING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THIS IN MIND...I THINK THERE WILL BE A TORNADIC THREAT...IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND HAIL THREAT...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON FOR THOSE STORMS THAT CAN BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS THE STORMS PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND NW INDIANA SHEAR VECTORS AND INCREASING ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO UPSCALE GROWTH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE DURATION OF THE SEVERE THREAT AFTER 06 UTC AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. ILX barley mentions anything SLIGHT RISK OVER ALMOST ENTIRE CWA FOR THREAT IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STORMS COULD BE QUITE DIVERSE BY THE TIME THEY REACH CENTRAL/NW IL...AND ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF LG HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...THE LLVL SHEAR IS SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ROTATING STORMS/ISLD TORNADOES AS WELL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Hmm GFS 06z run going much higher for Southern Lower MI with MU CAPE over night, values of 1000 to 1600 J/KG, that could certainly up the hail potential significantly and help sustain anything that moves in from the Southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 new RUC goes nuts with moisture return and instability this afternoon with 3500-4500 CAPE from IA SW along the dryline at 22z this is overdone but this may be the faster/best moisture return I have ever seen, as of 11z they look on par with the 00z models...maybe even a tad ahead of the NAM..by 12z 60+ dewpoints will likely be over much of eastern KS 80kt LLJ wind barb on the SPC meso page at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Hmm GFS 06z run going much higher for Southern Lower MI with MU CAPE over night, values of 1000 to 1600 J/KG, that could certainly up the hail potential significantly and help sustain anything that moves in from the Southwest I will certainly be watching this afternoon for development in MO and IL and for me tonight. I keep thinking LaSalle county Illinois down to Galesburg as a prime area of interest this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 The current intense helicity this morning over such a broad area just screams for something to happen later today when storms erupt. I have read that the best chance for tors usually comes on the sw side of the best helicity when other parameters are favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Wowza at the new tornado ingredients, decent area of 50 Just wow if today ends up being huge, even bigger probs to the SREF. On 6/5 it didn't sniff out the 50 contour till the 15z run that day. Curious if they end up hatching the tornado probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 11z RUC and 06z models hold off all/most of the precip off until after 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 11z RUC and 06z models hold off all/most of the precip off until after 00z 00z to 03z has been the time of interest for quite some period now. Models seem to confirm that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 11z RUC and 06z models hold off all/most of the precip off until after 00z 10z HRRR lights up the whole front from TOP to DBQ between 23z and 1z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Well you have to be encouraged by the gradual ramping up of the sig. tornado ingredients since yesterday. Usually good indicator that models are latching onto an idea of an event. Really takes off after 00z, when the LLJ reorganizes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 looking pretty nice about 100 miles to my southwest. stay safe out there to anyone chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 no change on 12z outlook ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF ERN KS AND WRN INTO NRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN PLAINS... ..SYNOPSIS ELONGATED VORTICITY LOBE NOW OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING. A MORE INTENSE VORTICITY MAXIMUM DIGGING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONCURRENTLY TRANSLATE SEWD...REACHING THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 04/12Z. THESE TWO SEPARATE IMPULSES WILL REMAIN PHASED...COMPRISING A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WHICH WILL UNDERGO CONSIDERABLE DEEPENING/AMPLIFICATION WHILE MOVING INTO THE CNTRL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...INITIAL SURFACE LOW OVER SERN SD/NERN NEB WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY WHILE DEVELOPING ENEWD TO NERN IA/SWRN WI BY 04/00Z...AND NRN OR CNTRL LOWER MI BY THE END OF THE D1 PERIOD. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF ERN IA INTO IL/IND WITH THIS INTENSIFYING BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTING NWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD FROM THE NRN INTO CNTRL PLAINS...AND BY LATE AFTERNOON...WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SURFACE LOW SWWD THROUGH NRN MO TO A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL KS. A DRYLINE WILL LINK WITH COLD FRONT AT SECONDARY CYCLONE...EXTENDING SSWWD AND LIKELY MIXING TO NEAR THE U.S. 81 CORRIDOR OF CNTRL OK/NWRN TX BY 03/21Z. THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESSIVELY OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE AS IT SURGES SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU REGION TONIGHT. ..UPPER MIDWEST INTO SRN PLAINS SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE RAPID NWD ADVECTION OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS THROUGH THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY...A PROCESS THAT IS BEING ENHANCED BY A 50-60+ KT SWLY LLJ. BY LATE AFTERNOON... EXPECT A SWATH OF LOWER 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS TO EXTEND FROM E OF THE DRYLINE IN TX/OK THROUGH ERN KS...WRN/NRN MO TO VICINITY OF RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER ERN IA/WRN IL. THIS MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR BENEATH AN EML /AS SAMPLED BY 12Z PLAINS SOUNDINGS/ CHARACTERIZED BY MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM. THESE LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT AND DAYTIME HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG NEAR LEAD SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...TO AS HIGH AS 2000-3000+ J/KG AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. ASIDE FROM CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED STORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND POSE A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY...A STRONG CAP AT THE BASE OF THE EML WILL LIKELY DELAY SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A CONSENSUS OF CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 03/21Z-04/00Z ALONG SEGMENT OF COLD FRONT OVER NRN MO INTO NERN KS. THE POSITIVELY-TILTED CONFIGURATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS...EXCEPT INVOF SURFACE CYCLONES WHERE ISALLOBARIC FORCING MAY ENHANCE SOME BACKING OF THE LOCAL FLOW FIELD. NONETHELESS...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SHOW 40-50 KT OF DEEP WSWLY SHEAR WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE FIRST ONE TO TWO HOURS OF STORM INITIATION. LARGE HAIL /SOME POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE/ WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SURGING COLD FRONT AND LARGELY PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS TO THE FRONT SHOULD FOSTER THE UPSCALE GROWTH OF TSTMS TO LINE SEGMENTS OR A CONTINUOUS BAND FROM VICINITY OF LEAD SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT OVER SRN WI/NRN IL SWWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY INTO OZARK PLATEAU. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH ANY EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES THAT CAN EVOLVE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM NERN MO INTO NRN IL WHERE NEAR-GROUND SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH QLCS INTO MONDAY MORNING. ..MEAD/SMITH.. 04/03/2011 Text Page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Some elevated showers forming on the edge of the advancing EML in western Illinois. Wind fields are definitely already in place. The Slater, IA profiler showing 850 WSW at 65 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 some obs sites in eastern KS are showing dew point increases between 13-21 degrees since 1z last night with the most dramatic being a 39 up to a 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 some obs sites in eastern KS are showing dew point increases between 13-21 degrees since 1z last night with the most dramatic being a 39 up to a 60. Topeka has gone from 44 to 59 in 6 hours. Upper 50s into southeastern Nebraska now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 no change on 12z outlook no mention of a isolated strong tornado like the previous outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 some obs sites in eastern KS are showing dew point increases between 13-21 degrees since 1z last night with the most dramatic being a 39 up to a 60. mine was 23/24 degrees at 3/4am curious to see what it will be at 3/4pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Topeka has gone from 44 to 59 in 6 hours. Upper 50s into southeastern Nebraska now too. I think our questions about moisture getting up here are being answered and that near 60 if not a few degrees higher seems like a good bet later this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 crazy Anyone that was questioning if moisture transport would be an issue has this graphic to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Look y'all. I saw several comments about individual NWS offices being unimpressed in the discussions. My experience is that most of the time the met on duty has everything to do with these curt discos. They seem to put the less experienced forecasters on duty right before a severe event. My guess is so the main guys can sleep. So don't let curt or unimpressive sounding local discos throw you off. I follow SPC almost exclusively for severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Look y'all. I saw several comments about individual NWS offices being unimpressed in the discussions. My experience is that most of the time the met on duty has everything to do with these curt discos. They seem to put the less experienced forecasters on duty right before a severe event. My guess is so the main guys can sleep. So don't let curt or unimpressive sounding local discos throw you off. I follow SPC almost exclusively for severe. That isn't really the case, during the event they may put their strongest radar operators on the warning desk and leave the forecast to others, but the schedule typically isn't changed on days prior to events. I think what we're seeing is a conditional severe weather risk. If they go they have a chance to produce a good deal of severe weather, but these AFDs are highlighting potential failure modes of the events. All of which are legitimate concerns. For instance, the moisture return will be impressive, but can it make it in time for the forcing is a big question. Dewpoints are currently in the upper 20s over the northern end of the 10% tornado probability contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 nice 80-85kt LLJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 I'm about 15 miles southeast of Denton, TX with the plan of heading up I-35 into KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 I'm about 15 miles southeast of Denton, TX with the plan of heading up I-35 into KS. Hopefully something pops there, if it does it could go in a big way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 LaCrosse takes the honor for the first svr report of the day...for hail BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 826 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... MONROE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN... * UNTIL 900 AM CDT * AT 820 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR I 90 EXIT 25...OR NEAR SPARTA... MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STORM CAN PRODUCE QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... FORT MC COY AND JACKSON PASS AROUND 835 AM... TUNNEL CITY AND RIDGEVILLE AROUND 840 AM... TOMAH AND I 90 EXIT 43 AROUND 845 AM... OAKDALE AND I 90 AND I 94 INTERCHANGE AROUND 850 AM... SHENNINGTON AND MILL BLUFF STATE PARK AROUND 855 AM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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