Indystorm Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 When I see grammatical and other lanuguage mistakes in NWS AFD discussions of svr wx it tells me that the author is getting nervous about the situation. Have seen this on other occasions for an interesting psychological twist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 DVN not too impressed. This was written by Nichols too. WITH ENOUGH HEATING...SOME GUSTS TO 45 TO 55+ MPH SUGGESTED IN STRONGEST STORMS UNTIL EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH CLOUD BASED AND UNFAVORABLE FORCING AND SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT MARGINAL RISK FOR TORNADOES ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 When I see grammatical and other lanuguage mistakes in NWS AFD discussions of svr wx it tells me that the author is getting nervous about the situation. Have seen this on other occasions for an interesting psychological twist. It was probably just a bad mistake. I have made many myself. In a hurry and need to get products out--unfortunately spell check doesn't correct for improperly used words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 TOP: SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WHILE DRIER AIR IMPACTS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. SOME AGREEMENT IN INITIATING CONVECTION RIGHT AROUND THE 0Z HOUR ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND WITH CAPE VALUES 2000+ J/KG AND SUCH STRONG WINDS IN THE COLUMN EXPECT PRIMARILY A HAIL AND WIND THREAT FROM SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. TURNING OF THE WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH GOOD AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE LOWER 2KM AND AN INCOMING BOUNDARY IT REMAINS A CONCERN TO BE MONITORED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 SREF mean dews are pretty juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 And there's some very good directional shear along the IL I-80 corridor at 00z Monday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
upsloper Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 CLE THE MODELS ARE FINALLY LOOKING MORE IN AGREEMENT ON MONDAY WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT....WHICH SHOULD CROSS NORTHWEST OHIO DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS AND BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING. TIMING IS EVERYTHING AS TOO HOW UNSTABLE IT CAN GET AND HOW WARM IT CAN GET. WE COULD GET TO 70F BUT THE FRONT IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN I WOULD LIKE TO SEE FOR MAXIMUM HEATING. WILL STICK WITH A FORECAST GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S FOR HIGHS. I SUSPECT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DEPEND A LOT ON THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF JET/DYNAMIC FORCING AND SHEAR BUT THE INSTABILITY MAY BE HARD TO MAXIMIZE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIG SEVERE WEATHER DAY BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Low level shear looks much better to me on the GFS compared to the NAM, but the GFS has less instability. The GFS has a tendency to underdo instability though. If we can match the wind fields from the GFS to the instability of the NAM then we may really have some fun. Here's a GFS sounding for near Princeton Illinois late tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 18Z NAM parameters and Hodo for KCOU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 18z NAM continues to show some insane amounts of low-level instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Back in time for a Sunday chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 0z NAM breaks the cap further southwest this run into nortwest/north central MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 0z NAM breaks the cap further southwest this run into nortwest/north central MO. If we take this run seriously, the cap could be broken as far south as nrn or ctrl OK. Isolated storms could yield some great structure shots for chasers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 small dot of 50 on the 21z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 If we take this run seriously, the cap could be broken as far south as nrn or ctrl OK. Isolated storms could yield some great structure shots for chasers. Noticed that in the CINH plots. I can't say I can remember a good chase day in April with such a sheared-out, positive-tilt trough, but if a storm does somehow initiate and sustain itself around sunset in the pre-dryline environment, I imagine impacts will be significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 small dot of 50 on the 21z run Ummmm...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 small dot of 50 on the 21z run **** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 **** I gotta give SPC props...I was doubtful last night when they were hitting the tornado threat but it appears to be very real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 I gotta give SPC props...I was doubtful last night when they were hitting the tornado threat but it appears to be very real. Oh it's real alright...something gets going along that warm front rooted near the sfc and there will be hell to pay...I'm still not 100% sold on it happening though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 I know Janet/Janet earlier posted a caution about dewpoints verifying on the models...and with these early spring systems moisture return is historically a problem, but with the wind advisories over such a large area at present for tomorrow they might just advect north and add fuel to the fire as the models are predicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 I know Janet/Janet earlier posted a caution about dewpoints verifying on the models...and with these early spring systems moisture return is historically a problem, but with the wind advisories over such a large area at present for tomorrow they might just advect north and add fuel to the fire as the models are predicting. I actually tend to think WAA is underdone most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 I actually tend to think WAA is underdone most of the time. Temps can be underdone but that doesn't mean the dewpoints have to be as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Oh it's real alright...something gets going along that warm front rooted near the sfc and there will be hell to pay...I'm still not 100% sold on it happening though... I guess the big question is how strong the cap will be. Hodos look good so whatever can root near the surface might cause problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 I know Janet/Janet earlier posted a caution about dewpoints verifying on the models...and with these early spring systems moisture return is historically a problem, but with the wind advisories over such a large area at present for tomorrow they might just advect north and add fuel to the fire as the models are predicting. Actually its just the opposite - since the flow in the lower levels is so veered, they are downsloping and dry. As such, the winds could in fact advect dry, not moist air across the warm sector. With such strong solar insolation progged tomorrow, that dry air would mix down to the surface, raise LCL's, and increase inhibition. The 0Z NAM is so different in that it moistens things up a little in the low levels and thus the sfc, and weakens the EML ever-so-slightly compared to prior runs. Having moisture NOT mix out south of the IA-MO border would boost convective chances south of that area, and in fact we see NAM break out precip near KC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Window of opportunity for I-80 in northern IL continues on this evening's NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Hard to believe a few days ago a significant snow was not out of the question. Now, I'm right on the fringe of the severe weather threat. We'll see how the trends go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 It's definitely gonna have to be some pretty impressive moisture advection tomorrow to get those 60+ dews north. Just 12-15hrs before the event the NAM shows north-central Illinois with dews in the mid to upper 20s lol. EDIT: Just 6hrs after this the same areas are shown to have dews in the low to mid 50s. Wow. EDIT2: We go from a dewpoint around 28 at 7am, to near 65 by 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 It's definitely gonna have to be some pretty impressive moisture advection tomorrow to get those 60+ dews north. Just 12-15hrs before the event the NAM shows north-central Illinois with dews in the mid to upper 20s lol. EDIT: Just 6hrs after this the same areas are shown to have dews in the low to mid 50s. Wow. A general rule is that it takes at least 24 hours for 60 degree dewpoints in Louisiana to make it up to Indiana. In this case we have 60 dews progged in OK/AR at 12z...can they make it into northern Illinois by evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 A general rule is that it takes at least 24 hours for 60 degree dewpoints in Louisiana to make it up to Indiana. In this case we have 60 dews progged in OK/AR at 12z...can they make it into northern Illinois by evening? Definitely sounds far fetched, but the NAM forecasts winds at 850mb between 70-80kts over a wide swath for much of tomorrow morning. My gut feeling is it's overdone on the moisture return, but I think we'll see dews eventually make it up close to 60 by early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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