radarman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I am at the mountain today, and it looks pretty good out there with yesterday's new snowfall. Anything that we get later this week will be a pure bonus, and I think that conditions SHOULD be pretty good for this last weekend. So WSWs, school closings, and 8-10" fresh Weds. night won't convince you to open? Not being flip, just trying to plan because I would totally be there if you were going to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Is there a free site where you can see GFS ensemble mean 850 mb heights, other than the NCEP one which is slow to update (http://mag.ncep.noaa...B/appcontroller)? GFS ensembles also look nice. 850 low track keeps good Atlantic inflow right into SNE. Good hit for CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 So WSWs, school closings, and 8-10" fresh Weds. night won't convince you to open? Not being flip, just trying to plan because I would totally be there if you were going to... Ha, I am definitely NOT the decision maker! ...we'll have snow, just don't know about lift operations. I'd like to think that I'll get a call on Wednesday night or very early Thursday morning telling me to get my ass to work, but who knows! Also, when it comes to powder days, it seems that NOBODY shows up. That's very good from a skier's standpoint, but often times the condition of the roads keeps people home. Only the true die-hards show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I know... it bums me out too! I can tell you that regardless of how much snow is on the ground, we won't open on April 1st... never have. I'm pretty certain that it is an insurance thing, with our liability coverage running out at the end of March. Wachusett was open into the 2nd week of April in the epic late winter 2001 stretch. Not sure how many other times they have been open in April. They were in 1997 I know because of the huge blizzard. But as mentioned before, I remember years where they were done by the 2nd week of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 How do you feel about the GFS...do you think it's more right? Well putting all excitement aside and honest opinion, I think it's solution is closer to being right then the NAM. Even if the Euro doesn't look like the GFS.....if it is more organized with QPF or just a tad north, it will boost my confidence. A lot of the globals shifted north today. I could even see the GFS just sag a tiny bit south, but its solution with widespread QPF over SNE could be the right idea. There is some good WAA and frontogenesis that will probably occur well north of the low and many times that gets the QPF further north then models have. We'll see what the euro does. It's also possible we'll see some fluctuations in the models as convection gets going and moves se across the OH valley tomorrow. That's another piece of the puzzle that could shift around. You (personally) would probably want something more like what the GFS ensembles have. I'm optimistic about the solutions for my latitude, but I'm also aware of something a little more suppressed too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Good agreement between the GFS ens and SREF on QPF, 850 mb temps and upper pattern. They seem to be converging - 9z SREF shifted north, GFS ensemble shifted south a tad. That increases confidence IMO on a middle ground solution similar to the 12Z UKMET/GGEM and 0z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 Is there a free site where you can see GFS ensemble mean 850 mb heights, other than the NCEP one which is slow to update (http://mag.ncep.noaa...B/appcontroller)? I'm not sure of a free site to be honest, but here's a look at 850. I get it from Wright-Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 That GFS ensemble mean is pretty sweet. ESE inflow at 850 over the cold air. That would definitely produce for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Not enough die-hards out there like Pete. Skiiers are oddly satisfied with maybe three goods months I guess. Heck - many seasons there isn't even a good base until Xmas and they are ready to quit by the end of February? Most other people with sports related hobbies like hikers, bikers, etc. wouldn't be satisfied to do it only 3 months out of the year. I should have put a tongue in cheek face next to that post...I am aware that operating costs are high and its not worth it if nobody shows up. Its just mostly a conceptual jab...places closing in the Berkshires by the equinox. Doesn't seem right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Not enough die-hards out there like Pete. Skiiers are oddly satisfied with maybe three goods months I guess. Heck - many seasons there isn't even a good base until Xmas and they are ready to quit by the end of February? Most other people with sports related hobbies like hikers, bikers, etc. wouldn't be satisfied to do it only 3 months out of the year. When people don't see snow in there yard its hard for them to think anyone or place has any, Thougts of anything winter related are just afterthoughts, Happens here as well as other places, The diehards know better, I traveled over 200 miles round trip to go ride 150 miles the same day to find rideable snow last saturday, But most won't go if they can't leave from there back yard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 For WaWa, they basically say at the start of the year what the end date is (this year April 3). I bought my season pass for this and I understand how weather, etc. plays a role. If there is snow, they should spin the lifts as much as possible. 37 times so far this year. 27 here compadre....much nicer last nite with the couple inches of snow ....that really adhered well to the underlying base. more snow on the way. the big big winter is giving an encore next week or two! good thing pete sacrificed those tourists to ullr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 GFS ensembles also look nice. 850 low track keeps good Atlantic inflow right into SNE. Good hit for CT. Interesting to see the GGEM has the bigger player we were discussing yesterday for the 30th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Thanks, Will.... We have only been open on weekends, as it is a complete ghost town around here during the week. We were open last weekend (March 19-20), and we will open again this upcoming weekend. After that, we should be done. You need to realize that operating costs are rediculous, and shortly after Feb vacation, attendance crashes even on the weekends. We find that it costs more money to stay open than we could possibly make, and every day that we're open, we're losing money. I am certain that if you owned the mountain, you would do the exact same thing with regards to cutting your losses and not running the lifts. We had a spectacular season, with 7 days setting an all-time attendance record. We were able to stop making snow in mid-January due to the amazing string of storms. Of course, the rainstorms kinda killed our snow, and the few warm torch days that we had also ate a big hole in our snowpack. I am at the mountain today, and it looks pretty good out there with yesterday's new snowfall. Anything that we get later this week will be a pure bonus, and I think that conditions SHOULD be pretty good for this last weekend. I can relate to the owners assesment as myself being a businessman, Overhead plays a big roll as well, Sometimes you have to walk away, When it comes to dollars and cents, It does not make sense to make pennies when the dollar bills are flying out the window, Unless you have deep pockets, And that practice will only get you so far as well before the plug gets pulled.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 This storm may err on the side of more potency than guidance in any event... Pretty wild christmas tree of warnings flying from N NJ all the way to eastern MT with this sucker. Includeing blizzard and ice - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Euro almost has to come north again from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 Interesting to see the GGEM has the bigger player we were discussing yesterday for the 30th GFS ensembles also flag two storms around that date too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 GFS ensembles also flag two storms around that date too. Yea I can imagine, considering that the GFS ensemble derived PNA is over +1 SD by that time, while the NAO is trying to elevate - that's been the Archambaultian card lurking in this deck of days heading into April for some time. We just haven't seen a lot of committal to the signal. It will be interesting to see if the ECM/GFS slowly come on board, and perhaps the ensemble mean will consolidate those 2 into one bigger deal. I actually had a thread going about not losing hope, that I change the title to out of anger and sardonics - ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Feeling pretty good about where I sit in this one, pending the ECM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I was wondering why no Euro news...then I remembered we are on this stupid DST. I have no idea why we must be on DST before April...it's pointless. Euro almost has to come north again from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Top analog now on CIPS is 3-6-99. Does anyone remember what happened then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 Not really sure what to make of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Top analog now on CIPS is 3-6-99. Does anyone remember what happened then? D'oh - not the infamous 3-6-99er ... That was the one that went way south, hooked N, and then back built the -NAO height wall into the Bermuda ridge such that the winter ended and it was warm and sunny within 4 days! damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 D'oh - not the infamous 3-6-99er ... That was the one that went way south, hooked N, and then back built the -NAO height wall into the Bermuda ridge such that the winter ended and it was warm and sunny within 4 days! damn I would like for this to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 D'oh - not the infamous 3-6-99er ... That was the one that went way south, hooked N, and then back built the -NAO height wall into the Bermuda ridge such that the winter ended and it was warm and sunny within 4 days! damn Lol, ut-oh...looks like the pattern becomes May-like on the GFS post 250 hrs or so..not as abrupt of a change as 1999 I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Euro starts off a little south from 00z but then has a much better commahead late in the game...pretty decent hit. Solid advisory for most of SNE with perhaps marginal low end warning snow in CT. We just need that shortwave to have a smidge more room to amplify and we could probably double those qpf totals via much better Atlantic inflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Euro starts off a little south from 00z but then has a much better commahead late in the game...pretty decent hit. Solid advisory for most of SNE with perhaps marginal low end warning snow in CT. We just need that shortwave to have a smidge more room to amplify and we could probably double those qpf totals via much better Atlantic inflow. Snow for the south coast of ct, or rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 AWT's flying around like weenies blowing to the right in a hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 The euro is a little stronger, a little further nw with the low, but the QPF is tucked in. However, it has a nice CCB just offshore. AT 500MB the s/w in question seems a little slower and more southwest. This in turn, pumps heights up just a bit along the east coast. This causes the slight nw jog with a nice QPF blob over the Cape. It did take a more nw jog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 AWT's flying around like weenies blowing to the right in a hurricane It's time to gravitate back toward recognizable English, you turd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Not really sure what to make of the Euro. Eh, that's a substantial whack unfortunately for us warm season recovery lovers.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.