ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 We laugh but in way couldn't you see this coming ...? There has been an on-going solar minimum that really correlates well with -AOs.. Since the NAO overlays part of that domain, that's a heavy hand there. There is that, and the AMO has flipped signs and continues to descend. These two factors are pointing toward a -AO/-NAO bias...probably not just last year and this year, but perhaps spanning a decade if you believe Joe D'Aleo and other scientists... It's a factorization that seems to be the best fit for explaining last years phenom -NAO (M/A folk were very blessed) and just as valued in my opinion as a baser forecast foundation from which one can build upon for this season. I see no particular reason why the AO needs to be positive this year; although I did read somewhere that AAO tends to precede the AO, but if that is all there is to refute I need more than that. Anyway, a lot of the seasonal forecasts I have seen yet again...year after year after year, churn out with little reasoning contained demonstrating much contribution from the polar field indices and it just boggles the mind. Why not? Did we honestly think the Pacific would take cart blanche over all with those leading polar indicators in play?? That would be very unwise. We can't in one breath say that the AO has too many moments of indirection from the ENSO, and then not include it as a unique influencer - that is bad logic, to mention the NAO, too. Well I definitely don't disagree with you. Who knows what the NAO will ultimately be this winter, but for those saying it couldn't be negative, its going to start off poorly. Back in the mid 1950s through early 70s, we had plenty of -NAO's in mod/strong Ninas. If it were as easy as "raging PAC Nina equals raging PAC jet which equals no high latitude blocking", then we'd see a lot more LR forecasts nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Joe D'Aleo is an idiot as far as I'm concerned for a lot of other reasons. We did have a -QBO last year so I think it remains to be seen whether the prolonged solar minimum will begin to affect the polar fields in a +QBO as well, although this is certainly an interesting start ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Joe D'Aleo is an idiot as far as I'm concerned for a lot of other reasons. Completely out of line. Whatever you think of his AGW rants is pretty irrelevant here. He's done some research on solar and north ATL blocking and talked quite a bit about N ATL cycles...this isn't going to turn into a climate debate...but there is some interesting stuff regarding solar and NAO/AO...Isotherm talked about it in his winter forecast as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Not what we wanted to see but we can take solace in the fact that the 0z suite will likely be quite different. I maintain that we're going to have storms come out of virtually nowhere (or be lost and then found) and wouldn't be surprised if it happened in this instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Completely out of line. Whatever you think of his AGW rants is pretty irrelevant here. He's done some research on solar and north ATL blocking and talked quite a bit about N ATL cycles...this isn't going to turn into a climate debate...but there is some interesting stuff regarding solar and NAO/AO...Isotherm talked about it in his winter forecast as well. Some of his AGW stuff is fraudulent IMO.. I can't take anything he says without extreme skepticism. Just my opinion.. there are other better sources for the solar arguments anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Has Kevin tipped the chair yet? He's been MIA for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Some of his AGW is fraudulent IMO.. I can't take anything he says without extreme skepticism. Just my opinion.. there are other better sources for the solar arguments anyways. stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 It looks like its finally trying to break the block down by D10 at the end of this run...however, given the time frame, its merely one ensemble member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Has Kevin tipped the chair yet? He's been MIA for a while. Hopefully not, Not worth tipping anything unless its a bottle right now, Pattern will come around....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 there are an awful lot of blue shadings over NA on these op solutions today for the first half of december. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 :shi there are an awful lot of blue shadings over NA on these op solutions today for the first half of december. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 It looks like its finally trying to break the block down by D10 at the end of this run...however, given the time frame, its merely one ensemble member. looks like a reload of arctic air spilling down the western canadian prairies toward the end of the run though and more ridging punching toward offshore the PAC NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Well I definitely don't disagree with you. Who knows what the NAO will ultimately be this winter, but for those saying it couldn't be negative, its going to start off poorly. Back in the mid 1950s through early 70s, we had plenty of -NAO's in mod/strong Ninas. If it were as easy as "raging PAC Nina equals raging PAC jet which equals no high latitude blocking", then we'd see a lot more LR forecasts nailed. Could it be entirely possible that we actually go through this winter w/o seeing much of a SE ridge at all? I know this probably isn't likely but how crazy would that be? What if the NAO/AO were to just stay like this for a large chunk of the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 The ridge has been essentially cutoff for so long in the center of the country that by the time it comes east its been filled in with colder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Has Kevin tipped the chair yet? He's been MIA for a while. Why would i tip the chair for a couple inches of snow under the ULL on Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 stop. If we're going to cite scientists to back up certain arguments, I think calling into question their credibility is fair game. It's just my opinion of him though I would be happy to back it up in the CC forum. If you guys like Joe D that's fine.. I'm not trying to make a big deal out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Strong AO dominated last season in an El Nino Strong AO likely off to a great start this season in La Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Why would i tip the chair for a couple inches of snow under the ULL on Monday? Pretty sad when your hopes are hanging on an ULL for snow. What do you make of the 12z models today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Yup... a strong closed low sits and spins for days of cold, windy, cloudy afternoons. Awesome! What's wrong with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 If we're going to cite scientists to back up certain arguments, I think calling into question their credibility is fair game. It's just my opinion of him though I would be happy to back it up in the CC forum. If you guys like Joe D that's fine.. I'm not trying to make a big deal out of it. I'm just asking to keep AGW talk out of this thread. Using his view on AGW is silly to bring up when discussing the NAO/AO solar relationship. At any rate, its been studied by other people too other than him, so there's no need to go down that path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 What's wrong with that? If I'm not going to get snow besides a scattered flurry I'd rather it be 60 and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 We need the orientation of the eastern US trough to change before we get excited about any potential snowstorms. We just seem to be on the wrong side of the trough axis the last few weeks with these storms. Still some time before the DEC 6-9th period. Downeast ME could see a good snowstorm around the 3-4th period of DEC, this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 If we're going to cite scientists to back up certain arguments, I think calling into question their credibility is fair game. It's just my opinion of him though I would be happy to back it up in the CC forum. If you guys like Joe D that's fine.. I'm not trying to make a big deal out of it. it's got nothing to do with that. you called the man an idiot. there are people in the SNE forum who know him personally, appreciate his opinion and calling him an idiot is childish, disrespectful and entirely unwarranted. know one gives a rats a*s what you think of him or really cares about your opinion on the matter. he's forgotten more in a day than 99% of the posters on this forum will know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Pretty sad when your hopes are hanging on an ULL for snow. What do you make of the 12z models today? I see them in all liklihood overestimating the strength of the block..in essence dampening out the sw's as they come across. What will likely happen is as we get later on in the week..they'll weaken the block somewhat and allow for an area of light /moderate snow to develop on Sunday /Monday. This does not look like a dry pattern to me. Not overly snowy, but there's certainly some opp's for accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 it's got nothing to do with that. you called the man an idiot. there are people in the SNE forum who know him personally, appreciate his opinion and calling him an idiot is childish, disrespectful and entirely unwarranted. know one gives a rats a*s what you think of him or really cares about your opinion on the matter. he's forgotten more in a day than 99% of the posters on this forum will know. As do I, and he is far from an idiot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Why would i tip the chair for a couple inches of snow under the ULL on Monday? Oh JB....first it was 3-6, then 3-6/2-4, now a couple of inches.......where are we headed with this, a victory when we get some snow showers??? I am headed out to Salt Lake City tomorrow where I will at least see snow on the ground. I expect you to have the bus running when I get back. I am trying hard to not get depressed today. Do we really thing the closed low will be that strong and right over us? Perhaps the models are overdoing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I see them in all liklihood overestimating the strength of the block..in essence dampening out the sw's as they come across. What will likely happen is as we get later on in the week..they'll weaken the block somewhat and allow for an area of light /moderate snow to develop on Sunday /Monday. This does not look like a dry pattern to me. Not overly snowy, but there's certainly some opp's for accumulating snow. We definitely have some opportunities, it's just a matter of realizing them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 If I'm not going to get snow besides a scattered flurry I'd rather it be 60 and sunny. Well you're def. in the 3-4 percentile on that..especially during the holiday season..Who in the hell wants warm and sunny in December lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I saw him present at the SNE wx conference last October...the man is brilliant as his is work/studies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I see them in all liklihood overestimating the strength of the block..in essence dampening out the sw's as they come across. What will likely happen is as we get later on in the week..they'll weaken the block somewhat and allow for an area of light /moderate snow to develop on Sunday /Monday. This does not look like a dry pattern to me. Not overly snowy, but there's certainly some opp's for accumulating snow. Our best bet right now if the block is going to set up like this is to get disturbances pinwheeling around the ULL which may give us a couple shots at some light accumulation events. There's certainly no guarantee that happens, but more often than not, we see something minor but measurable when you get a stalled ULL like that. I'm hoping its just weaker than depicted and allows something more significant to enter the region, but it may be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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