ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I like the way the Euro looks for Sunday...it actually looks like pretty decent advisory snow...esp N of the pike...tries to hang on in E MA for a bit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 You are obsessed with track of this thing. It'll be 44F and rain or 46F and rain. It makes no difference. If it goes GON to PYM it stays in the 30's IMBY..very important to me personally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 I know they happen..but there's not too many storms that go right over my head...I-95 just seems like the best call right now ..snowcover, climo, baroclinic zone..all signs point to wagons SE No it won't go over you. You'll be 40 with pea soup fog I bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 If it goes GON to PYM it stays in the 30's IMBY..very important to me personally I think you'll creep to 40F...because the low is probably going to be N of the S CT coast...maybe track across central CT to south of BOS.But you'll probably be in the 30s for most of the time before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I think in the end if the GFS/NAM scenarios today are close to reality you are right. The GFS was just as far SE as the Euro was NW. I'm glad I"m not the only one who is thinking that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I think you'll creep to 40F...because the low is probably going to be N of the S CT coast...maybe track across central CT to south of BOS.But you'll probably be in the 30s for most of the time before that. Yeah I can see a scenario where it gets to 39 or 40 for an hour or 2 right ahead of the front..Yesterday i was thinking mid 40's..so the big Euro trend SE has helped me there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Its hard to get a sfc low to track over ALB unless the vortmax is really strong. This system doesn't really fit that bill...at least if models are close to depicting the s/w correctly. Even Feb 5-6 couldn't do it when it was trying to track it over MPM 12 hours out. Yeah vortmax is pretty weak. Edit: not weak, but not strong enough until east of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 It's going to slide north of me I think, between here and Scott. It'll ride right along the boundary which is going to blow right through here. What's interesting to me is that if a mechanism existed for perfectly blending the Euro with the GFS into a super model, we'd have a much more accurate model than either alone. This storm is a perfect example. That mechanism is called the human brain. Unfortunately it's often biased with emotions so the leaning often goes against our strong rational deductive skills and leans towards the snowier model(s) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Does the Euro have the flip to snow at the end for many? Also...what kinds of amounts for clipper on Sat nite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I'm glad I"m not the only one who is thinking that. if i were you i would be sporting some wood after the 12z euro run. there's a real chance for you out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 For the record, 12-22" snowpack backyard (a little extra drifting there over 2.5' in corner) Front yard - 6-12" , most of the sun exposure occurs here. 4' snowbank pinnacle there . That was slightly over 5.5' a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Does the Euro have te flip to snow at th end for many? Also...what kinds of amounts for clipper on Sat nite? It looks like a quick flip to snow at the end. Maybe an inch. Sunday clipper is best N of pike...2-4 with maybe even a stripe of 5" in there for S NH/N MA. More like 1-2" for YBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 It's the slight risks you have to worry about. That's when you know you're screwed you changing that map that had 2-4 all the way up past Plymouth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wackymann Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I'm looking for some driving advice for tomorrow morning... We are driving from the Boston area out the Mass Pike/Thruway to Syracuse. We had planned on leaving around 6:30 AM and arriving in Syracuse around noon, but we can change our schedule if necessary. 1) What should we expect to encounter on the drive? 2) Will the roads be passable? I'm used to driving in heavy snow, but of course I don't want to die or get my family stuck out in the middle of nowhere. Any advice would be much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 All the guidance today has been colder than last night. I'm starting to wonder if my northern areas for forecasting up near the NH border will get a lot more snow than first thought. Its a close call but I could see someone like Winchendon or Gardner picking up 6" of paste with an isothermal proflile from like 700mb all the way to the sfc. Those are always the toughest to forecast because it could also be heavy rain and 33F....or even a narrow ribbon of ice at 31.5F. This has been a tee totter, soundings and Bufkit have consistently been a tad colder than first model looks. Blue bomb and ice might be bigger than first looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 It looks like a quick flip to snow at the end. Maybe an inch. Sunday clipper is best N of pike...2-4 with maybe even a stripe of 5" in there for S NH/N MA. More like 1-2" for YBY. Cool..gain 3 back from whatever I lose tomorrow.. the more we have to arm ourselves for next week's cutter the better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Sunday could be one of those great dendrite days with light winds and good snowgrowth. Maybe a little OES, just for Messenger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 haven't paid great attention since this has been billed rain storm for days....but overnite tonite is it mix/snow or more rain with the euro SE trend in effect? morning commute on mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Is the Euro QPF as juicy as the NAM/GFS? 1.75-2.00" for much of the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Sunday could be one of those great dendrite days with light winds and good snowgrowth. Maybe a little OES, just for Messenger. Yeah that doesn't look to bad for some of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 you changing that map that had 2-4 all the way up past Plymouth? I updated around noon. Still might be a little too warm if the latest trends verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I'm not sure what net gain/loss I will have between now and Sunday. Figure on a big hit on Monday. Still, think it'll be a little while before I'm sitting at the picnic table. I thought I saw Pete basking on it last night, but maybe it was a bear..... 31.0/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I'm not sure what net gain/loss I will have between now and Sunday. Figure on a big hit on Monday. Still, think it'll be a little while before I'm sitting at the picnic table. 31.0/7 MRG's been laying naked on his all winter stargazing...Don't you remember his post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Parts of central VT into NH will really go to town late tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 MRG's been laying naked on his all winter stargazing...Don't you remember his post? Look at my edit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Looks like 12z Euro came pretty far east with the monday storm from 0Z tracks it thru W NY thru CNH and CME.. If this is true man did this come SE..2 days ago it was over DTW..Wonder if Mondays ends up being close to tomorrow's track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Not true. Euro brought the 850 0c line well up into NNE. gfs much closer to what will be happening. even here in andover, when all is said and done, we could have a net gain. I'm glad I"m not the only one who is thinking that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 MRG's been laying naked on his all winter stargazing...Don't you remember his post? With a lock of hair covering each areola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 With a lock of hair covering each areola. Maybe Eric can photoshop something on top of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Monday's event may have a stronger vortmax, but you have to wonder if that may snake across sne like this one...lol. It seems like more of a difficult task. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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