ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GFS is more amped. Looks like Kevin rips pellets off his scalp on this run...they actually might make it as far as BOS-ORH at their height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GFS is more amped. Looks like Kevin rips pellets off his scalp on this run...they actually might make it as far as BOS-ORH at their height. Nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Nice run. Yeah it juiced up the first wave at the expense of the 2nd wave...looks like high advisory or low end warning snow this run for most of the BOS-ORH-BDL region. Some sleet contamination in the latter stages for BDL but decent snow before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Looks Euroesque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yeah it juiced up the first wave at the expense of the 2nd wave...looks like high advisory or low end warning snow this run for most of the BOS-ORH-BDL region. Some sleet contamination in the latter stages for BDL but decent snow before that. Consider it this way. We're ahead 34 to 3 and all of a sudden we go into a funk, it's 34-24 and we're playing poorly. Now we're moving the ball and looking like we're capable of running up the score big time. Post torch, post intermission, epic winter resumes...bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Consider it this way. We're ahead 34 to 3 and all of a sudden we go into a funk, it's 34-24 and we're playing poorly. Now we're moving the ball and looking like we're capable of running up the score big time. Post torch, post intermission, epic winter resumes...bring it! Hopefully we put the nail in the coffin with the INT return for a TD after this score...sometime in early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Boston needs about 35 inches to challenge the snow record. I don't think it's out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Hopefully we put the nail in the coffin with the INT return for a TD after this score...sometime in early March. Hopefully it's not a Romo failed hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Gaiety as the cold front comes through... Spectacular convection. I wondered about this as I went for lunch today and saw TCU around the Mass Pike, over snow pack.; quite the odd look to the sky with milky cirrus and white on the ground. When I saw the first flash of lightning I immediately hearkened back to that moment. Will, it WAS hail. Low thickness hail does that - falls in lighter rad regions as well as cores. We basically cut the CBs in half and bring the top half down to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Gaiety as the cold front comes through... Spectacular convection. I wondered about this as I went for lunch today and saw TCU around the Mass Pike, over snow pack.; quite the odd look to the sky with milky cirrus and white on the ground. When I saw the first flash of lightning I immediately hearkened back to that moment. Will, it WAS hail. Low thickness hail does that - falls in lighter rad regions as well as cores. We basically cut the CBs in half and bring the top half down to the surface. Yeah John, the wet bulb zero heights were down below 4000 feet when those came through so it was very easy to bring hail to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I'm thinking the first wave is going to end up more juiced....and that will be the main player. There still might be a 2nd wave, but whatever does form of that is likely way off to our south. I wouldn't be surprised to see sleet get up into my BY in this event, though I think in either scenario we'd see a nice hit of snow even if sleet contaminated near the end. I think pretty solid snows will get up to dendrite's area and perhaps a bit north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Wow, the GFS just keeps them coming too after this one. One next Friday/Friday night and then another 24 hours later. The one great thing about overrunning patterns is you can just get a train of systems...but you are also playing with fire. You end up on the wrong side of the boundary and it really sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Berkshires and Greens could get a nice pasting in the next few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Wow, the GFS just keeps them coming too after this one. One next Friday/Friday night and then another 24 hours later. The one great thing about overrunning patterns is you can just get a train of systems...but you are also playing with fire. You end up on the wrong side of the boundary and it really sucks. Yeah I was thinking it will be miracle if the storm track remains the same as Dec/Jan. I can't remember a winter where the track didn't change for the entire winter...maybe this is the year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I'm thinking the first wave is going to end up more juiced....and that will be the main player. There still might be a 2nd wave, but whatever does form of that is likely way off to our south. I wouldn't be surprised to see sleet get up into my BY in this event, though I think in either scenario we'd see a nice hit of snow even if sleet contaminated near the end. I think pretty solid snows will get up to dendrite's area and perhaps a bit north. Yeah, I think a 3-6" is likely statewide for NH, maybe some pockets of 7" in southern NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I just wanna say that mid 40s at midnite in mid Feb feels fookin great. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yeah, I think a 3-6" is likely statewide for NH, maybe some pockets of 7" in southern NH I think in typical SFWE fashion, this will try to bump north a shade more and also come in juicier. From all the experience Ekster and I had staying up late watching this things come in on the models from 2007-2009, they usually seemed like 0.50-ish on the qpf until 60h out and then they'd ramp up a bit higher to the 0.75 range...sometimes even 1.00-1.25 but then they'd fall back to 0.75-1.00 at the last second. I think enough moisture will get into that first wave and have it amplified enough to give a low end warning criteria. Obviously every SWFE event has its unique properties, but I can't help but think this one will kind of trend in the manner outlined above since it looks decent on models in the upper levels. There is a bit of a tedious placement of the pv lobe, so that could throw a wrench into things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I think in typical SFWE fashion, this will try to bump north a shade more and also come in juicier. From all the experience Ekster and I had staying up late watching this things come in on the models from 2007-2009, they usually seemed like 0.50-ish on the qpf until 60h out and then they'd ramp up a bit higher to the 0.75 range...sometimes even 1.00-1.25 but then they'd fall back to 0.75-1.00 at the last second. I think enough moisture will get into that first wave and have it amplified enough to give a low end warning criteria. Obviously every SWFE event has its unique properties, but I can't help but think this one will kind of trend in the manner outlined above since it looks decent on models in the upper levels. There is a bit of a tedious placement of the pv lobe, so that could throw a wrench into things. The PV lobe makes this situation a little unique, like you said. I'm cautious to bring the SWF disturbance any further north than the GFS prog right now. We could just as well see that lobe trend a little deeper. We pretty much end up with a sheared out mess aloft, and something at the surface that the guys at the HPC might analyze as just a stationary front floating alone. Certainly a mechanism for overrunning precipitation, but definitely a quick hit, and not something I see spitting out any 1in/hr+ rates. I think someone north of the Pike comes away with 8", with a general 3-6" for most of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Berkshires and Greens could get a nice pasting in the next few hours Everything's white again... just pouring snow sideways. Winds gusting 40mph and we've easily got an inch so far. Snow pasted to all objects. Precip started as snow, no rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The PV lobe makes this situation a little unique, like you said. I'm cautious to bring the SWF disturbance any further north than the GFS prog right now. We could just as well see that lobe trend a little deeper. We pretty much end up with a sheared out mess aloft, and something at the surface that the guys at the HPC might analyze as just a stationary front floating alone. Certainly a mechanism for overrunning precipitation, but definitely a quick hit, and not something I see spitting out any 1in/hr+ rates. I think someone north of the Pike comes away with 8", with a general 3-6" for most of the region. This ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 EURO looks like the NAM....toss it; I think that the GFS has the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 And then there's the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 And then there's the Euro. It's wrong; hold me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 It's wrong; hold me to it. to be honest I don't care either way. It's mid February and we had a heck of a light show down here tonight although I don't think it ever rained much. I saw at least 10-15 flashes in a short period, nuts. As far as which model is right...if history is a guide at this range none of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 It's wrong; hold me to it. I think Euro looks a bit better than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 to be honest I don't care either way. It's mid February and we had a heck of a light show down here tonight although I don't think it ever rained much. I saw at least 10-15 flashes in a short period, nuts. As far as which model is right...if history is a guide at this range none of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I think Euro looks a bit better than the NAM. W\E...dnt really care because they are both incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Nice little squall came through here...dropped the temperature to 30F abruptly. It was ugly down down in New York today. I erroneously wore my sweater and I was sweating down there in temps near 70F. Snow pack took a major hit, but still all white here. Pretty much everything is gone in the NYC area. This ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 bastardi not buying what the GFS is selling. It's kind of tough to go against the Euro/NAM when they agree at this range. GFS probably in fantasy land. But we shall see....like I said don't care much at this stage and you and I would probably both agree we're 24 hours from a more clear "solution" although I hate the idea of the euro working so far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 W\E...dnt really care because they are both incorrect. It a little skimpier on qpf...looks like 0.30-ish here vs 0.50-0.60" on gfs, but its because it holds back the energy a little more. But regardless, still don't see any reason to waiver from an advisory to low end warning event for much of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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