Grothar of Herndon Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 It's money in the bank. Ji has got it right on this one. Rain - modeled perfectly, snow - modeled completely wrong. I saw this as a last chance. So be it, let's bring on spring then summer. My wish ... avg high temp of 65 degrees until May 1 with a daily deviation of 5 degrees, avg 70 from May 1 to June 20 same dev., avg 75 from June 20 to Aug 1, same dev., avg 80 from Aug 1 to Aug 2, then back down the same way until Nov. 1. I am throwing in the towel as well. Let get on to Spring and Summer so we can get back to Fall and Winter. Here's to saying good bye to the Winter of 2010-2011 and onwards to Winter of 2011-2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Dudes, we're done. I want off this ride and on to potential 80 next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2011 Author Share Posted March 10, 2011 I agree. It looks over. But that's OK. It's time. Maybe next year will be better. I'm not really a fan of late March snow anyway. Just imagine how different our opinion of this winter would have been had 1) the Christmas storm delivered 2) the Jan 11 storm had done what it looked like it would just 24 hours before it happened 3) the Presidents day storm had been more snow than sleet. I think we'd have all been happy. But, it still could have been worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2011 Author Share Posted March 10, 2011 Dudes, we're done. I want off this ride and on to potential 80 next weekend. BTW, where's your number of days until winter banner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 what a joke the euro is...from a slow moving QPF bomb yesterday to nothing today...this only happens with potential snow...it never loses a rainstorm yep what a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Dudes, we're done. I want off this ride and on to potential 80 next weekend. I don't think I'm ready to see 80s quite yet, but the 65-70 that some other people were hoping for, I can go for that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 I agree. It looks over. But that's OK. It's time. Maybe next year will be better. I'm not really a fan of late March snow anyway. Just imagine how different our opinion of this winter would have been had 1) the Christmas storm delivered 2) the Jan 11 storm had done what it looked like it would just 24 hours before it happened 3) the Presidents day storm had been more snow than sleet. I think we'd have all been happy. But, it still could have been worse. True that. So many near misses this winter that would have made it pretty good, but it just didn't pan out. Oh well. Philly was fortunate and actually cashed in quite well this year, getting hit by most of those events we missed out on. But you know, I'm glad we at least had the excitement of the Jan. 26 upper low on steroids storm, that was quite awesome to experience! Despite my power going out for 2 days because of it (and Pepco!). And, it was very picturesque! I'd say of the past 10 winters I've experienced here, this one was still much better than the awful 2001-02 and 2007-08 seasons. (Edit: BTW out of curiosity, are you a Reds fan, and from Cincinnati? Just wondering because of your avatar photo. I'm from Cleveland originally, a long-suffering Browns and Indians fan, and even the Cavs! I still wince at "the drive", "the fumble", "the shot", and when Jose Mesa came in to pitch in game 7 of the 1997 Series!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 To a weak El Nino 2011-2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 For the fun of it 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 For the fun of it 00z NAM LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 i'd be hesitant to totally give up.. the gfs still tracks the 500 vort favorably though it's barely there and there is no amplification. however, in this range i'd lean toward it modeling the vort too weak and if it were to hold similar it could end up looking sort of namish tho the nam is super fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Is it me or has the GFS sped things up a bit too over the last 24 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Is it me or has the GFS sped things up a bit too over the last 24 hrs? i guess it's technically 2 seperate waves.. the nam is keyed up big on the first. 0z gfs a little more juiced with the mon night/tue system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 i'd be hesitant to totally give up.. the gfs still tracks the 500 vort favorably though it's barely there and there is no amplification. however, in this range i'd lean toward it modeling the vort too weak and if it were to hold similar it could end up looking sort of namish tho the nam is super fast. I know your probably goign to say Im not worred about surface temps 84 hours out, but isnt the NAM verbatim questionable on surface temps or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2011 Author Share Posted March 12, 2011 Has everyone given up? The signal for a storm early next week has appeared and seems to be getting stronger. Anybody hopeful? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 Has everyone given up? The signal for a storm early next week has appeared and seems to be getting stronger. Anybody hopeful? Nam looked a little better--- I"m 120 miles south of you as well, that helps too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 Has everyone given up? The signal for a storm early next week has appeared and seems to be getting stronger. Anybody hopeful? Not really. Cold rain FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2011 Author Share Posted March 12, 2011 Well the signal for a storm certainly got stronger with the 18z runs, the 21z srefs, and now starting with the 0z NAM. Don't know if it means jack, but it's worth watching. Edit: Scratch the NAM. Don't know what I was looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 juicy, can we squeeze some flakes out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 juicy, can we squeeze some flakes out? Still has the look of a Blackburg to Waynesboro-- If it shows as is, I'm heading to Afton Mt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 Still has the look of a Blackburg to Waynesboro-- If it shows as is, I'm heading to Afton Mt. wintergreen to mt. rogers FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 wintergreen to mt. rogers FTW? Taking the GFS as is-- yeah. I can be on Afton mt in 50 minutes and have an office in Waynesboro. The models have weakened that HP a little the past few days and that last 2k feet is rather toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 For the 12z GFS the storm track continues to be relatively north and warm in the later period, it now tries to do what the CMC does though between 90 and 108 hours in bringing a shortwave up the coast, however there is nothing to supply cold air so the same regions will have a chance at snow, mainly Northern NY and New England...Fridays highs should be nice throughout the area ranging from 60's in NYC to 70's in DC and Baltimore, I refuse to look at much beyond 180 hours as the model truncates and looses resolution and tries to do some crazy things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 For the 12z GFS the storm track continues to be relatively north and warm in the later period, it now tries to do what the CMC does though between 90 and 108 hours in bringing a shortwave up the coast, however there is nothing to supply cold air so the same regions will have a chance at snow, mainly Northern NY and New England...Fridays highs should be nice throughout the area ranging from 60's in NYC to 70's in DC and Baltimore, I refuse to look at much beyond 180 hours as the model truncates and looses resolution and tries to do some crazy things. If you scanned the profiles of the NAM-- its SUPER dry between 60-84 hours. 700 mb dews are sub -30-- which is crazy- I'm sure that kills any development that COULD happen in that time frame. Still worth watching, not much else. I still think above 2k in SW VA has a shot at something. maybe only 1-2 inches, but thats something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 If you scanned the profiles of the NAM-- its SUPER dry between 60-84 hours. 700 mb dews are sub -30-- which is crazy- I'm sure that kills any development that COULD happen in that time frame. Still worth watching, not much else. I still think above 2k in SW VA has a shot at something. maybe only 1-2 inches, but thats something The NAM is not exactly in range at 60-84 hours..I wasnt saying that what the GFS shows has or is going to be right but both the GFS and CMC now show it, other than that I agree with your assessment..Certainly 0 chance at flakes for DC and Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 The NAM is not exactly in range at 60-84 hours..I wasnt saying that what the GFS shows has or is going to be right but both the GFS and CMC now show it, other than that I agree with your assessment..Certainly 0 chance at flakes for DC and Baltimore I wasn't taking the NAM as is-- and I didn't check the GFS profiles, but even cutting it in half is rather cold/dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 66. Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 46. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. Saturday: A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 61. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Not a bad weekend to be in D.C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tstate21 Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 I haven't checked the other models, but the GFS has been showing a possible storm the past few runs developing in the 8 to 9 day timeframe. Yes, I know it is over a week out, but at least it could be a little something to track for at least a few days- maybe a rain ending as snow event? Overall, set-up does not look too bad with some pretty cold air following behind whatever type of storm system that develops. 12z 3/16 GFS - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/12/gfs_pcp168192_l.shtml 0z 3/17 GFS - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/00/gfs_pcp168192_l.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 I haven't checked the other models, but the GFS has been showing a possible storm the past few runs developing in the 8 to 9 day timeframe. Yes, I know it is over a week out, but at least it could be a little something to track for at least a few days- maybe a rain ending as snow event? Overall, set-up does not look too bad with some pretty cold air following behind whatever type of storm system that develops. 12z 3/16 GFS - http://www.nco.ncep....p168192_l.shtml 0z 3/17 GFS - http://www.nco.ncep....p168192_l.shtml 6z 3/17 GFS looks even better in the 168-180 timeframe. Quite a high up to the north. Our luck has not been good this season so at this point just something to track for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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