Jmister Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 To me it looks like the precip is much better defined down this way versus the 12z simulated radar. Compare both at 21z: Actual: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/RADNWS_US/floop_rad.html Forecast: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/WRFRAD_12z/jloop.html It also badly predicted the heavier precip in lower Michigan. I think all in all, the actual observed radar is a few hours ahead of the simulated radar. With UNV reporting 38/9, it will take some time before we get appreciable precip. However, it will likely cool below freezing in the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 no problem, with the latest trends on the models for a colder and snowier solution, I wouldn't be surprised to see your area receive 4-8" of snow. If the clown maps have there way, epecially the NAM you could be sitting very close to the bullseye for round 1. The NAM's 10:1 clown map shows a swath of close to a foot of snow for north central PA. Whether this is right or not is debatable, but it just goes to show its another scenario map that is becoming increasingly possible. Nicest looking clown map I have seen for our area in awhile. http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=CCX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 WS Warning...wow 7-10" of snow? ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * HAZARDS: HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. * ACCUMULATIONS: 7 TO 10 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. * TIMING: SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER NIGHTFALL. SNOW WILL BECOME MORE INTENSE AS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PROGRESS. SNOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AFTER DAYBREAK. * IMPACTS: PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CREATE DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AS ROADWAYS BECOME SNOW PACKED AND SLICK. HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS TONIGHT ARE URGED TO ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH THEIR DESTINATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 CTP being bullish for Monday night/Tuesday morning: Tonight Snow in the evening...then snow and freezing rain likely after midnight. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Ice accumulation of up to a tenth of an inch. Lows in the upper 20s. East winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Monday Rain...snow likely with a chance of freezing rain in the morning...then a chance of rain in the afternoon. Little or no additional snow accumulation. Ice accumulation of up to a tenth of an inch. Highs in the mid 40s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Monday Night Rain and freezing rain in the evening before changing to snow. Snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches. Lows in the lower 20s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 accuweather.com says what snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 had a warning shot of some big fluffy flakes about 20 min ago. Snow still workin on the dry air it appears. Should be a matter of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Now snowing pretty decently I guess, kinda surprised how fine the flakes are. In case anyone didn't see here's CTP's plan-view map thru 1pm tomorrow. Thats just with wave #1, I'm especially surprised they went with about 5 inches for Altoona and State College. I'm thinking its probably a 1-3 incher for them, especially since a slots punching thru the Pittsburgh area and might cut precip unless theres some extra development. I checked my point and click for around Bellwood and one end of town has 4-8 inches for tonight! We will see I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Light graupel falling here, and still at 39F. Might be a sign of things to come, not starting out as rain as I thought it might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Snowing pretty decently attm with a coating on the ground. I see CTP just updated the near term and have upgraded my grids to have 1-3 overnight before mixing after 1am.. which sounds alot more realistic than the 3-7/4-8 that were in place. Precips gonna be focused above I-80 for this initial event. I'm surprised i haven't seen pottercountywxobserver in here at all as of late, hes gonna get cracked good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Snowing pretty decently attm with a coating on the ground. I see CTP just updated the near term and have upgraded my grids to have 1-3 overnight before mixing after 1am.. which sounds alot more realistic than the 3-7/4-8 that were in place. Precips gonna be focused above I-80 for this initial event. I'm surprised i haven't seen pottercountywxobserver in here at all as of late, hes gonna get cracked good. Does that mean the second wave is further north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Snowing pretty decently attm with a coating on the ground. I see CTP just updated the near term and have upgraded my grids to have 1-3 overnight before mixing after 1am.. which sounds alot more realistic than the 3-7/4-8 that were in place. Precips gonna be focused above I-80 for this initial event. I'm surprised i haven't seen pottercountywxobserver in here at all as of late, hes gonna get cracked good. Haha I'm right here, been extremely busy lately with this semester The storm should stay mostly snow, so the only thing that scares me at this time is the fineness of the snow grains atm. The air is very dry right now, but as I look at my vantage vue the DP has increased some. I will keep you guys updated throughout the storm for a little while. Right now very fine grains and a dusting on the ground. The recent melting has just about oblilerate my snowpack and I'm down to 1" snow depth. Hopefully it stays all snow with no mixing. The second wave looks interesting as well, especially for those that are sort of missing out on the first wave. Temp is sitting at 30°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 BGM has a WSW...according to the NAM we'll barely meet WWA criteria... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 00z NAM looks much wetter with the second storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I'm starting to think we'll struggle to break 2 or 3" with this storm tonight. Radar trends+ Models= low end advisory event. The next event looks dead for north of JST to MDT to PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Sleeting in HBG. A bit of zr too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Looking at the radar...I find my self agreeing with Wmsptwx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Am I correct in that the University Park area is on the line between not much and a decent advisory event with round 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Latest NAM gives less than 0.1" of liquid for event #1 here in the MDT area. If correct then first event is pretty much nothing. Then it gives around 0.7" of liquid between 7PM tomorrow night and 7AM Tuesday morning. 4 to 6" looking more likely around here for #2. Maybe I will beat my 3.8" max snowfall for this season??? Had a period of snow which is letting up now. Took the temp down from 39 at the start to 35 where it is now. I was quite surprised to see it start as snow with a temp of 39! ---Stephen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Latest NAM gives less than 0.1" of liquid for event #1 here in the MDT area. If correct then first event is pretty much nothing. Then it gives around 0.7" of liquid between 7PM tomorrow night and 7AM Tuesday morning. 4 to 6" looking more likely around here for #2. Maybe I will beat my 3.8" max snowfall for this season??? Had a period of snow which is letting up now. Took the temp down from 39 at the start to 35 where it is now. I was quite surprised to see it start as snow with a temp of 39! ---Stephen If the wet trend continues, I think 8 inches may be do-able. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Snowing pretty steady here. Laying in the grass and sidewalks, nothing yet in the roads... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I currently have 1.7" from the storm so far and it started at 8PM so its roughly an 1" a hour. I cleared part of my board to see what it would be at 11PM to do an exact measurement. Places just to the south of me along the Cameron and Potter county boarder are getting slammed with 33Dbz returns and I'm roughly seeing 23Dbz returns. So I'm definitely thinking the main banding features are going to set up around this area and the higher amounts from the storm should come from this area. At this point by judging the latest observations and current radar the 12z GFS looks to have nailed the banding set up. There looks to be a brief break in the action with a clear site of the edge on the radar of part of the precipitation field, maybe a 30 minute lull. Side note, the flakes resemble powdered sugar! Temperature is steady at 28°F. Good luck to my PA wx fanatics... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 32 here at IPT airport with some moderate to heavy snow. Pretty decent size flakes as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Does that mean the second wave is further north? It's possible, or at least it lends a bit of support to what the NAM has been showing. 0z NAM keeps the heavier QPF at and above I-80 and thermally it's seemed to have performed alright with the snow boundary lurking around I-80 and northward. I think the NAM's got the right idea with wave #2, it should hit the folks pretty decently that will have more showery and mixed precip tonight, so basically I-80 south. Like i said about the 12z NAM earlier today, it's kind of the perfect scenario where most everyone in our area sees a decent snowfall from one wave or the other. Still a bit worried that there's a stripe that ends up underachieving from both from I-80 to say 25-30miles south, mainly from mixing tonight and the heaviest snow not reaching far enough north tomorrow night. Judging by radar there's some good returns in this area i'm concerned about but is it still all snow in places like State College, Port Matilda, Clearfield, etc? I have a mix down here of sleet and freezing rain attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 It's possible, or at least it lends a bit of support to what the NAM has been showing. 0z NAM keeps the heavier QPF at and above I-80 and thermally it's seemed to have performed alright with the snow boundary lurking around I-80 and northward. I think the NAM's got the right idea with wave #2, it should hit the folks pretty decently that will have more showery and mixed precip tonight, so basically I-80 south. Like i said about the 12z NAM earlier today, it's kind of the perfect scenario where most everyone in our area sees a decent snowfall from one wave or the other. Still a bit worried that there's a stripe that ends up underachieving from both from I-80 to say 25-30miles south, mainly from mixing tonight and the heaviest snow not reaching far enough north tomorrow night. Judging by radar there's some good returns in this area i'm concerned about but is it still all snow in places like State College, Port Matilda, Clearfield, etc? I have a mix down here of sleet and freezing rain attm. No, unfortunately. A lot of sleet mixed in here in State College. I thought we'd get to at least midnight without too much mixing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It's possible, or at least it lends a bit of support to what the NAM has been showing. 0z NAM keeps the heavier QPF at and above I-80 and thermally it's seemed to have performed alright with the snow boundary lurking around I-80 and northward. I think the NAM's got the right idea with wave #2, it should hit the folks pretty decently that will have more showery and mixed precip tonight, so basically I-80 south. Like i said about the 12z NAM earlier today, it's kind of the perfect scenario where most everyone in our area sees a decent snowfall from one wave or the other. Still a bit worried that there's a stripe that ends up underachieving from both from I-80 to say 25-30miles south, mainly from mixing tonight and the heaviest snow not reaching far enough north tomorrow night. Judging by radar there's some good returns in this area i'm concerned about but is it still all snow in places like State College, Port Matilda, Clearfield, etc? I have a mix down here of sleet and freezing rain attm. Uggh...I'm starting to get really worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 32 here at IPT airport with some moderate to heavy snow. Pretty decent size flakes as well. I'm glad to see you guys are experiencing the bigger flake size, I will post in a few minutes to determine what my 10-11PM hourly total was attm it looks to have decreased in intensity while the band fills back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Yeah, its really coming down here in Williamsport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Major northward shift with the 00z GFS for round 2. Falls more in line with the new NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I'm now at exactly 2.5" for the storm and had a hourly rate of .8" . This next hour is going to take a hit in intensity while the band under goes stregthening. The flakes are still rather small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Major northward shift with the 00z GFS for round 2. Falls more in line with the new NAM. Heh wow lol, congrats Breezewood, PA on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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