CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 NAM sniffing out a trend or NAM on crack ... one can never know. It's possible for a track like that with a trough to the west, but it takes that s/w and keeps it rather potent as it moves ne. Other models move it east and shear it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Much stronger than 18z. 982 vs 995 Probably bogus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 NAM sniffing out a trend or NAM on crack ... one can never know<div><br></div><div>Edit: If I had to guess I'd go with crack considering how different it is from the SREFs, Euro and GFS and especially the way ots GGEM and NOGAPS but sometimes it charges alone and others follow.</div> something's up, cause the 18z DGEX run was much farther east than that...some sort of inconsistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I think that is a run we can all cheer for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I think that is a run we can all cheer for. Yay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 NAM sniffing out a trend or NAM on crack ... one can never know<div><br></div><div>Edit: If I had to guess I'd go with crack considering how different it is from the SREFs, Euro and GFS and especially the way ots GGEM and NOGAPS but sometimes it charges alone and others follow.</div> Srefs at this range are useless. The nam providing an over amplified solution at this stage is stunning...what's next Charlie sheens rehab not working this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Srefs at this range are useless. The nam providing an over amplified solution at this stage is stunning...what's next Charlie sheens rehab not working this time? I added this run to my model porn family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 It's possible for a track like that with a trough to the west, but it takes that s/w and keeps it rather potent as it moves ne. Other models move it east and shear it out. Yeah there's some danger there...the speed of the system should work in our favor, but this type of track was what I was worried about...it has enough room to pull a track like this. Hopefully its just over amplified and not real, but it could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I added this run to my model porn family. I'm being honest haven't even looked at it! Best case it's snow to rain here, worst case a ton more roofs collapse Saturday night. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 If anything, that low over the great lakes will act more as a kicker than a phaser. Trust me, this pattern is progressive. It dosen't allow much to slow down and wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I'll bet the suny mm5 is colder Like Will said could be legit but probably nam biases into play again. Model is always on the extreme side one way or the other at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I'm being honest haven't even looked at it! Best case it's snow to rain here, worst case a ton more roofs collapse Saturday night. Not good. Well the plus to it cutting west would be heavy dry slot for sne to hopefully mitigate roof failure but copious amounts for ski resorts. I'd say a track over the BM would be a bigger risk for roof collapse since it would be more QPF over the hard hit areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I'm being honest haven't even looked at it! Best case it's snow to rain here, worst case a ton more roofs collapse Saturday night. Not good. It's actually not that great of a run here. I was being tongue in cheek. Long range NAM...slash and gash the high QPF down...and then it's probably high end advisory or low end warning verbatim. All of the globals will probably be SE and it will probably verify that way anyway. To be honest this run is too far NW for my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 It's actually not that great of a run here. I was being tongue in cheek. Long range NAM...slash and gash the high QPF down...and then it's probably high end advisory or low end warning verbatim. All of the globals will probably be SE and it will probably verify that way anyway. To be honest this run is too far NW for my liking. Did you end up seeing any sleet today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Srefs at this range are useless. The nam providing an over amplified solution at this stage is stunning...what's next Charlie sheens rehab not working this time? the Rev calling for widespread 12+ with lollies to 18? JB pulling out 96 78 and 83 as analogs? The sky is falling! (oh that's just snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Haven't seen a good 30 degree snow in a while... which it would be if the NAM were correct... Of course, I'd trust a 3 card monty dealer more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 If anything, that low over the great lakes will act more as a kicker than a phaser. Trust me, this pattern is progressive. It dosen't allow much to slow down and wait. I have my full faith in you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Did you end up seeing any sleet today? I had some tiny sleet pellets after the +SN moved out. It probably last 30-60 minutes and then it was just snow grains until the fluff tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The last thing we should collectively want is rain into this incredible mega pack - especially for roof concerns! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I had some tiny sleet pellets after the +SN moved out. It probably last 3-60 minutes and then it was just snow grains until the fluff tonight. I think it was more like 4-60. I stayed inside during that horror show, waiting patiently for the dendrites to reappear, which they did and continue to do. Is that blob on the radar getting you? lightened up here but looks like it would get you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I think it was more like 4-60. I stayed inside during that horror show, waiting patiently for the dendrites to reappear, which they did and continue to do. Is that blob on the radar getting you? lightened up here but looks like it would get you. I edited my post. Yeah they're getting me, but I don't want to take this thread OT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I think it was more like 4-60. I stayed inside during that horror show, waiting patiently for the dendrites to reappear, which they did and continue to do. Is that blob on the radar getting you? lightened up here but looks like it would get you. Yeah, sleet has the worst sound. Makes you just want to draw the shades and blare music so you can pretend it isn't happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 HAH Looks good to me also, but every single coastal low this season has hooked right enough to get SNE with snow. I find it hard to believe this one will be different. It's like destiny or something. I think that is a run we can all cheer for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I'll wait till the NAM is about 24 Hours before start time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 GFS and Euro should give a good clue tonight as to where this is headed...always seems better clarity once a current storm is moving out. We wake up tomorrow morning inside of 60 hours and the models will have a handle on it. HPC likes a lose to the coast track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Bouchard is riding the NAM...pure rain out to 495, mix line back to the west slopes of the Berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The last thing we should collectively want is rain into this incredible mega pack - especially for roof concerns! I agree. A lot of rain into cool temps would be bad news. Look at Easton today in the patriot ledger....one building with 150 workers in it a total loss, another evacuated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Bouchard is riding the NAM...pure rain out to 495, mix line back to the west slopes of the Berks Isn't Pete so obvious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 GFS is shall we say...different....lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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