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GFS Fantasy storm a plenty

wxbrad

By wxbrad,
in Southeastern States

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Wow

Wow

Posted
Posted

GFS pushes the block out as fast as it can after 180 hrs... of course there's plenty of past evidence that it's done this so soon, so we'll see about that. regardless, that lone southern s/w days 8-10 does have promise with the majorly negative NAO block in place.

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

GFS pushes the block out as fast as it can after 180 hrs... of course there's plenty of past evidence that it's done this so soon, so we'll see about that. regardless, that lone southern s/w days 8-10 does have promise with the majorly negative NAO block in place.

It will be interesting to see how the major upgrade this summer reducing convective feedback on the gfs will affect its ability to forecast in the long range. Previously the gfs was known for its cold bias during the winter months in the long range, but recently there has been some evidence that the model now has a slight warm bias. For the southeastern weenie's sake lets hope the current runs of the gfs are once again presenting the model's cold bias by squashing the southern stream impluse in the long range by the massive upper trough in the east.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

yes thats the first event, DC gets a nice storm not sure about here. now lets see what it says about the latter event.

yeah, the ULL is over VA, good setup for DC, and maybe the tidewater area as the storm exits stage right moving NW, instead of riding up the Coast. I looked at the 700mb RH maps on plymouth and the comma head sets-up over WV and works through most of the state of VA, based on extrapolating the 168hr panel. NE NC and the tidewater area may see something verbatim, but still 6 days out so it will change.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

The euro delivers the Midatlantic and Northeast a snowstorm, maybe right along the coast, but overpowers the rest of the east in deep nw flow, so the southwest system gets supressed. Shows snow from Houston to Florida panhandle at 204 hours, and dry cold for the remainder of the Southeast until the northern branch merges with the Texas wave and starts to cutoff. Highly unlikely solution. But the general idea of better snow chances further south you go with the supression idea. Still a long ways off to give up or get overly excited.

Edit: the last panel shows a complete cutoff over Texas, so temps would become a problem in Ga /Carolinas on day 10 with the warm advection aloft but again the solution looks unrealistic past day 6.

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Amos83

Amos83

Posted
Posted

12z Euro is suppressing our 12/8 storm. Alabama gets some snow out of that run and maybe SW Georgia. Euro just needs to keep us in the game for the next 4 days lol.

I'd much rather it show a suppressed solution this far out as it will almost certainly do two things to it over time. #1 say what the $%@# are you smokin'? There ain't not storm coming, remember you live in the south and it's December! #2 move it north over time and give us a nice early christmas gift.

I do not want to be in the sweet spot this far out for anything

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Turner Team

Turner Team

Posted
Posted

The euro delivers the Midatlantic and Northeast a snowstorm, maybe right along the coast, but overpowers the rest of the east in deep nw flow, so the southwest system gets supressed. Shows snow from Houston to Florida panhandle at 204 hours, and dry cold for the remainder of the Southeast until the northern branch merges with the Texas wave and starts to cutoff. Highly unlikely solution. But the general idea of better snow chances further south you go with the supression idea. Still a long ways off to give up or get overly excited.

Edit: the last panel shows a complete cutoff over Texas, so temps would become a problem in Ga /Carolinas on day 10 with the warm advection aloft but again the solution looks unrealistic past day 6.

Does Southern VA also miss out on the precip with this storm?

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

Does Southern VA also miss out on the precip with this storm?

on the last storm day 10? It begins to creep moisture north and west I think, but temps aloft are heading above zero east of the Apps. For the Miller B this weekend, that would probably be light rain east of the Apps until you get to middle or northern Va, then wrap around possible from north of Richmond to Maine (actually northern Maine is in rain for a while). You and I miss 2 storms on this run.

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Turner Team

Turner Team

Posted
Posted

on the last storm day 10? It begins to creep moisture north and west I think, but temps aloft are heading above zero east of the Apps. For the Miller B this weekend, that would probably be light rain east of the Apps until you get to middle or northern Va, then wrap around possible from north of Richmond to Maine (actually northern Maine is in rain for a while). You and I miss 2 storms on this run.

Thanks!!

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HKY_WX

HKY_WX

Posted
Posted

The euro delivers the Midatlantic and Northeast a snowstorm, maybe right along the coast, but overpowers the rest of the east in deep nw flow, so the southwest system gets supressed. Shows snow from Houston to Florida panhandle at 204 hours, and dry cold for the remainder of the Southeast until the northern branch merges with the Texas wave and starts to cutoff. Highly unlikely solution. But the general idea of better snow chances further south you go with the supression idea. Still a long ways off to give up or get overly excited.

Edit: the last panel shows a complete cutoff over Texas, so temps would become a problem in Ga /Carolinas on day 10 with the warm advection aloft but again the solution looks unrealistic past day 6.

I agree, it looks to have a good handle on things up to day 7, and then it goes a little berserk with the suppression and phasing over the northeast. The overall setup is really good for the southeast from day 7-9 for an overrunning snow/ice scenario.I have hard time buying a solution that suppressed in the first week of Dec, climo is just totally against it. But anything is possible with such a -NAO/-AO.

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

I'd much rather be looking at that than what we saw at 0z

I'd much rather it show a suppressed solution this far out as it will almost certainly do two things to it over time. #1 say what the $%@# are you smokin'? There ain't not storm coming, remember you live in the south and it's December! #2 move it north over time and give us a nice early christmas gift.

I do not want to be in the sweet spot this far out for anything

True, true. It would be last winter all over again if we were in the sweet spot.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

I agree, it looks to have a good handle on things up to day 7, and then it goes a little berserk with the suppression and phasing over the northeast. The overall setup is really good for the southeast from day 7-9 for an overrunning snow/ice scenario.

yeah, I hope the northeast storm is moderately strong, but not as strong as progged. Hopefully this is a bias and things are further east and weaker (remember last year--the opposite problem occurred!). A happy medium or tonight down would be about right. The strangest thing is just how deep the Texas closed low gets. I guess it would be better for that one to be strong instead of get sheared east. Still a long way to go to reel this storm in, but atleast we have something to watch and get a handle on which models may be better this season. I've always liked the idea of extreme amplification this Season, and this run takes the cake. Snow very far south is still very likely moreso now than ever it would be awful to watch DC area get a snowstorm, then NC misses one to the south, but wouldn't be the first time.

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

I agree, it looks to have a good handle on things up to day 7, and then it goes a little berserk with the suppression and phasing over the northeast. The overall setup is really good for the southeast from day 7-9 for an overrunning snow/ice scenario.I have hard time buying a solution that suppressed in the first week of Dec, climo is just totally against it. But anything is possible with such a -NAO/-AO.

You mean buying into the snow scenario?

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NEGa

NEGa

Posted
Posted

How far south?

Can't believe I'm asking about 192 hour JMA details :arrowhead:

better than 240 hours or 384 :bike: i just hope that we do get some winter wx in dec., and that we get more in jan/feb - it would suck to have a good dec then crappy rest of the winter with nothing to follow :pimp:

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