cmichweather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Are you not seeing this? doesn't show up for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Are you not seeing this? no but thats hillarious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Are you not seeing this? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Are you not seeing this? Nope, not on my end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm not seeing that either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The hole is the precip just SW of me may be related to a gravity wave?? any comments? ..really windy here now pushing 45 mph...Mccomb just gusted to 47 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 lol, it's gone now. Maybe the admins are experimenting in the background? That's a cool feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Ah, there is such a thing as +PL METAR KIND 012154Z 06014G25KT 1 3/4SM +PL BR OVC014 M06/M07 A2978 RMK AO2 SLP092 P0009 T10561072 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 you know what im looking at this beast on weenie intellicast radar what an overfed beast he is them im looking at the temp on my thermometer as well as in the snow zone im starting to get this weenie feeling this storm wont disappoint for those of us to the east from MI through the eastern lakes. maybe its just the weenie in me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Ah, there is such a thing as +PL METAR KIND 012154Z 06014G25KT 1 3/4SM +PL BR OVC014 M06/M07 A2978 RMK AO2 SLP092 P0009 T10561072 Are we really this close to heavy snow? PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 539 PM EST TUE FEB 01 2011 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0532 PM ICE STORM 2 NW WEST LAFAYETTE 40.47N 86.94W 02/01/2011 TIPPECANOE IN BROADCAST MEDIA 3.6 INCHES OF SLEET AND SNOW. ON AND OFF PERIODS OF HEAVY SLEET AND HEAVY SNOW. Whoa big gust just now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Are we really this close to heavy snow? PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 539 PM EST TUE FEB 01 2011 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0532 PM ICE STORM 2 NW WEST LAFAYETTE 40.47N 86.94W 02/01/2011 TIPPECANOE IN BROADCAST MEDIA 3.6 INCHES OF SLEET AND SNOW. ON AND OFF PERIODS OF HEAVY SLEET AND HEAVY SNOW. Whoa big gust just now. Heh, I don't know. If the westside is truly getting heavy snow at times, I'm going to puke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 DTW is on the board....very light snow has begun to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordoFabulous Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Heavy sleet on the west side of Muncie. Some of the larger grains are putting craters in the sleet pack. Winds are starting to pick up a bit. Not much of a glaze on the trees, but you can hear ice talking when the wind blows. This sleet storm is seriously one of the most incredible things I have ever seen. The grains today are finer than they were last night, but simply pouring out of the sky. The kids across the street from me made some tiny sleetmen today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 you know what im looking at this beast on weenie intellicast radar what an overfed beast he is them im looking at the temp on my thermometer as well as in the snow zone im starting to get this weenie feeling this storm wont disappoint for those of us to the east from MI through the eastern lakes. maybe its just the weenie in me. Yeah, I keep reminding myself...I was dryslotted on Jan 2-3, 1999. That was 100% WCB, llj driven snowfall. Just like this. Now, that storm lasted longer and was wetter but it goes to show you dryslotting is not necessarily the death knell of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Baro, See you lurking what are your thoughts at this point?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Heavy sleet on the west side of Muncie. Some of the larger grains are putting craters in the sleet pack. Winds are starting to pick up a bit. Not much of a glaze on the trees, but you can hear ice talking when the wind blows. This sleet storm is seriously one of the most incredible things I have ever seen. The grains today are finer than they were last night, but simply pouring out of the sky. The kids across the street from me made some tiny sleetmen today. Sleetman, lol. I have to attempt to go out and measure this stuff, but I don't have a helmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Just amazing http://beaudodson.sm...3286_G5V8J-O-LB That vis image is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Sleetman, lol. I have to attempt to go out and measure this stuff, but I don't have a helmet. Won't help much.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 LAF is really teetering on the edge at this current time. http://weather2.admin.niu.edu/webgifs/NIUIN_36.GIF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Baro, See you lurking what are your thoughts at this point?? Haha I am catching up to the last 5 pages--I stepped out to eat. I am speechless. This storm is spectacular and definitely living up to the hype. Thinking about how bad the NCEP op guidance failed--but NCEP did have some wins too with HRRR/RR/SREF/WRF-ARW/NMM and NWS did well with this storm--imo. Never thought I would say it but RGEM did very well--and deserves kudos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 LAF is really teetering on the edge at this current time. http://weather2.admin.niu.edu/webgifs/NIUIN_36.GIF IMO, this is much more accurate, but yes we're going to fail in getting snow with this one. http://weatherobservatory.com/radar_grearth1.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Howie Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Haha I am catching up to the last 5 pages--I stepped out to eat. I am speechless. This storm is spectacular and definitely living up to the hype. Thinking about how bad the NCEP op guidance failed--but NCEP did have some wins too with HRRR/RR/SREF/WRF-ARW/NMM and NWS did well with this storm--imo. Never thought I would say it but RGEM did very well--and deserves kudos. So what are the new "Model Power Rankings" for winter weather? Is there a new #1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 This is awesome!! 3 days ago, nothing but flurries was progged here. Now , plowable snowfall seems a certainty God bless the N trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looks like the low definitely is within the MO bootheel just NW of it. SPC surface analysis runs off RUC and that is misplaced too far E. Has to be around 995 or sub 995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Sleetman, lol. I have to attempt to go out and measure this stuff, but I don't have a helmet. Yeah, I thought it was bad earlier this afternoon but it's getting worse. Stuff could give you welts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 dont know if this has already been posted Mesoscale Discussion 72 SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...AS RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SREF INDICATE VERY DEEP AND SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES /AOA 150 MB THICK/ COINCIDING WITH STRONG ASCENT. HOWEVER...RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR...POSSIBLY HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED IN A 120-MILE-WIDE CORRIDOR CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR QUINCY TO CHICAGO. IN THIS REGION...ENHANCED MESOSCALE BANDING IS EXPECTED...AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z NAM MODEL...WHICH INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF SLANTWISE INSTABILITY COINCIDING WITH FRONTOGENESIS-INDUCED ASCENT THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPRIGHT INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL IL AFTER 00Z AS 700-500-MB LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AOA 7 C/KM. ADDITIONALLY...MESOSCALE BANDING WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED BETWEEN CHICAGO AND THE WI BORDER DUE TO FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE NWRN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SFC CYCLONE MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION WILL SUPPORT STRONG NELY WINDS WITH GUSTS AOA 35 MPH...RESULTING IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE 19Z RUN OF THE HRRR HAS BEEN CAPTURING TRENDS OF THIS SYSTEM WELL...AND INDICATES THE HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 06Z...ENDING LATE IN THE NIGHT ACROSS NRN IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Conditions are extreme in downtown Madison. Winds gusting to 40+ mph and moderate snow. Felt like I was on an Arctic expedition walking home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 So what are the new "Model Power Rankings" for winter weather? Is there a new #1? Every storm is different. I was surprised by the NAM fail since it typically does well with rapidly developing cyclones--but the NAM failed the most here--likely do to its convective scheme and non-hydrostatic nature. Too much latent heat release owing to overdone convection really killed the NAM. A combo of models and forecasting/understanding of the situation is the only way to go. Rating storm wise--probably the ECMWF/RGEM/WRF-ARW/NMM as well as the HRRR in the short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yeah, I thought it was bad earlier this afternoon but it's getting worse. Stuff could give you welts. Especially on my bald head. This is intense with the sleet and wind right now. Definitely would rather have the snow, but this is a pretty good consolation prize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfhsd.html Basically, they said assuming the dry slot doesn't materialize (which all models have been handling poorly) their snowfall maps will verify. PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 513 PM EST TUE FEB 01 2011 VALID 00Z WED FEB 02 2011 - 00Z SAT FEB 05 2011 DAY 1 ...CNTRL PLAINS TO THE NRN MID ATL/NORTHEAST... A DANGEROUS WINTER STORM WITH LARGE AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW AND ICING REMAINS THE THREAT FOR THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/NY/PA/NEW ENGLAND. A 140 TO 160 KT UPPER JET ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN U.S...WILL BE SETTING UP A FAVORABLE COUPLED JET CONFIGURATION WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SPEED MAX THAT RESULTS IN LARGE DIVERGENCE MAXIMA ALOFT FROM MO INTO IL/IN LATER THIS EVENING. THE JET SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY TO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER AR EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND ON INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ALONG WELL A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING A WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD WHERE SFC REPORTS HAVE SHOWN SNOWFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR TWO PER HOUR. PROBABILISTIC MAPS SHOWED A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AND UNIFORM RISK OF A FOOT OR MORE. OF SOME CONCERN IS THE FACT THAT SHORT TERM RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING AND WRAPPING NORTHWARD INTO THE STORM...A FEATURE THAT WAS NOT WELL SUGGESTED EVEN BY HIGH RESOLUTION AND CONVECTION EXPLICIT MODELS. PERHAPS A MORE LAX GRADIENT IN THE PROBABILITY CATEGORIES WAS IN ORDER. ASSUMING THAT THE DRY SLOT DOES NOT WORK ALL THE WAY THROUGH...STILL THINK THAT STRONG FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER COMBINED WITH THE EXTRUSION OF STRATOSPHERIC TO 400 MB OR BELOW SHOULD STILL RESULT IN BANDS OF HIGH INTENSITY SNOWFALLS FROM IL INTO IN/SRN LOWER MI LATER TONIGHT. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING OF THE SFC LOW...WHILE A SECOND SNOWFALL MAX IS SHOWN IN NY/NEW ENGLAND AS A NEW SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A BIG FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE STORM WILL VERY EFFICENTLY TRANSPORT LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...BUT FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR AROUND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SET UP A ZONE WHERE SUB FREEZING AIR WHERE STRONG WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION ALOFT HAS SET UP GOOD RAINFALL RATES. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HERE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A FAIRLY TIGHT ZONE FROM PARTS OF IL INTO OH. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACROSS A GOOD SWATH OF PA. THE SIGNS ARE LESS CLEAR ACROSS PARTS OF MD AND NORTHERN VA EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS HELD IN PLACE AND DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN INCREASING...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST DECREASING THREAT OF ICE. BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS REMAIN INSISTENT THAT 2 METER TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BY SOME 2 TO 4 DEGS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH IMPLIES AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF 1/4 INCH OF FREEZING RAIN WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH HAVE A MDT IF NOT A HIGH RISK OF 1/4 INCH OF FZRA. MANUAL PROGS BLENDED THE 12Z ENSEMBLE PSUEDO BIAS CORRECTED AND 12Z GFS THE MOST...WHILE WE TRIED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE VERTICAL PROFILE FROM THE NAM FOR AS LONG AS POSSIBLE GIVEN ITS BETTER VERTICAL RESOLUTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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