Brian5671 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 What's the prognosis for an ice storm on Long Island for tonight? depends where you are-quick change to rain along the south shore for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 While it's gotten colder over the past few hours and some of us are experiecing freezing drizzle, with this bomb of a storm (see water vapor map) developing in the plains states which appears to be nothing but a lakes cutter, (it appears to be headed directly toward the ohio valley and then up west toward Detroit).. How are we going to get more than a period of frozen precip before turning to rain in the NYC metro area.. I would appear as though with a system this strong going way to our west, we're basically doomed. What am I missing here? Jeff there is high pressure to the north with northerly surface winds. as long as that keeps up, it can hold in the cold air at the surface. you're right in terms of snow...we won't see any as the upper levels have already warmed considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 While it's gotten colder over the past few hours and some of us are experiecing freezing drizzle, with this bomb of a storm (see water vapor map) developing in the plains states which appears to be nothing but a lakes cutter, (it appears to be headed directly toward the ohio valley and then up west toward Detroit).. How are we going to get more than a period of frozen precip before turning to rain in the NYC metro area.. I would appear as though with a system this strong going way to our west, we're basically doomed. What am I missing here? Jeff The problem is not what happens then....The problem is ice is building up now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 there is high pressure to the north with northerly surface winds. as long as that keeps up, it can hold in the cold air at the surface. you're right in terms of snow...we won't see any as the upper levels have already warmed considerably. Yup-- this is basically a snowstorm from Oklahoma City to Chicago to Boston. 12 inches plus in and between those cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 there is high pressure to the north with northerly surface winds. as long as that keeps up, it can hold in the cold air at the surface. you're right in terms of snow...we won't see any as the upper levels have already warmed considerably. How long can this High pressure sit there.. As PT commented earlier, he said that this storm can't move in the direction it wants b/c of this High Pressure.. Is it possible that this Low under cuts the High and goes further east? I dunno.. I am just confused, b/c it would appear as though that H would move on out if it wasn't strong enough to hold the Low pressure at bay.. and if it was strong enough, the Low would undercut to the south and we'd all be in trouble w/ an ice storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 How long can this High pressure sit there.. As PT commented earlier, he said that this storm can't move in the direction it wants b/c of this High Pressure.. Is it possible that this Low under cuts the High and goes further east? I dunno.. I am just confused, b/c it would appear as though that H would move on out if it wasn't strong enough to hold the Low pressure at bay.. and if it was strong enough, the Low would undercut to the south and we'd all be in trouble w/ an ice storm.. There's going to be secondary development, but it will be too close to us for it to snow here. That's for new england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 My temp is down to 25.8 degrees. Everything is freezing now. When sun goes down, very bad situation here in NE Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 There's going to be secondary development, but it will be too close to us for it to snow here. That's for new england. right- i forgot about that.. so when do the sref's come out?? im excited for today's 18z package! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Starting to get some build up on trees and streets with light freezing spray continuing. temp is 23.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Has anyone noticed that the steady precip is 1000 miles from here? It will have a tough time getting to our area by midnight unless there is some mechanism by which the atmos becomes saturated prior to the storms arrival...delayed in this case will probably result in denied (good for some I know) as there will be insufficient cold air tomorrow for a daylight ice storm. Edit: This is assuming we don't see a quicker jump to the coast which would lock in the cold air and provide the lift needed for precip to break out here rather than track in from the west. I'd appreciate anyone's input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 There's going to be secondary development, but it will be too close to us for it to snow here. That's for new england. I would remind you that that's kind of still in doubt somewhat, as to where exactly secondary development occurs. It's going to be a close call, we're right on the fence for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 New srefs keep NYC below freezing thru hour 18: At hour 21: Freezing line is on top of NYC: Precip is close to .50" thru hour 21. and about .50" after as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The drizzle is freezing on colder surfaces here in Long Beach now as the temperature has dropped down to 29 after a high of 34 earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Thin layer of ice is gradually building and will get progressively worse when the sun sets. Low level cold may not budge until it's too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 New srefs keep NYC below freezing thru hour 18: At hour 21: Freezing line is on top of NYC: Precip is close to .50" thru hour 21. and about .50" after as rain. how does that match up to the other models? Colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 depends where you are-quick change to rain along the south shore for sure... I wouldn't be so sure about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 New srefs keep NYC below freezing thru hour 18: At hour 21: Freezing line is on top of NYC: Precip is close to .50" thru hour 21. and about .50" after as rain. I wouldnt bother looking at the models now. They have been awful and too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 who remembers the biblical early 70's ice storm school was closed for almost a week i remember taking a shopping cart and using it as a sled the thing went like two city blocks before it ended badly anyone remember ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 how does that match up to the other models? Colder? Pretty similar to NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 who remembers the biblical early 70's ice storm school was closed for almost a week i remember taking a shopping cart and using it as a sled the thing went like two city blocks before it ended badly anyone remember ? Late 1973/early 1974? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 latest surface analysis shows that our origional high pressure center that was located just to the north of VT is now over eastern ME and the pressure has fallen to 1030 from an earlier high of 1035. Meanwhile, a much stronger area of high pressure > 1040 mb is advancing eastward and is taking on the "bannana high" look that some models were indicating. High pressure should pretty much stay locked in over southern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The 2nd round of precip. likely won't get to NYC by midnight, but around 2-3AM. The HRRR has been doing a very good job on the intensification of the primary low and the progress of the precip, and it suggests the precip. will arrive 1-2 hours ahead of the NAM/GFS. The heaviest precip. should be from around 8AM to noon tomorrow, but keep in mind the best ice accretion occurs when precip. is lighter. Has anyone noticed that the steady precip is 1000 miles from here? It will have a tough time getting to our area by midnight unless there is some mechanism by which the atmos becomes saturated prior to the storms arrival...delayed in this case will probably result in denied (good for some I know) as there will be insufficient cold air tomorrow for a daylight ice storm. I'd appreciate anyone's input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Late 1973/early 1974? Dec 17th 1973..remember it well..one mean ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I thought it was the 1978 ice storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 1973 sounds about right awesome coke bottle effect for anyone who remembers we were to young and stupid to realize how dangerous that storm really was i remember like it was yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 it dropped another degree imby since 1pm...thank God no heavy precip at the moment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Not sure if its ice related TRANSCOM reports the southbound truck lanes of the New Jersey Turnpike at Exit 11 are closed for a police investigation. Southbound car lanes at Exit 11 presently have a 5 mile delay. Use alternate routes if possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The 2nd round of precip. likely won't get to NYC by midnight, but around 2-3AM. The HRRR has been doing a very good job on the intensification of the primary low and the progress of the precip, and it suggests the precip. will arrive 1-2 hours ahead of the NAM/GFS. The heaviest precip. should be from around 8AM to noon tomorrow, but keep in mind the best ice accretion occurs when precip. is lighter. Yeah. 18z NAM catching on also. At 1am precip is still west of NYC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 That was expected to happen...however, there is nothing keeping the high in place. Expect it to move East/Northeastward rapidly over the next 12 hours. This was actually well progged by the 12z WRF..the High further to the west becomes the main High... while the original high dissipates. After this westward jump in pressure, the whole thing slides east. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRF_12z/wrfloop.html latest surface analysis shows that our origional high pressure center that was located just to the north of VT is now over eastern ME and the pressure has fallen to 1030 from an earlier high of 1035. Meanwhile, a much stronger area of high pressure > 1040 mb is advancing eastward and is taking on the "bannana high" look that some models were indicating. High pressure should pretty much stay locked in over southern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I thought it was the 1978 ice storm! That was bad here on the Island, but the '73 storm in the City was the worst I've EVER seen. There was a half-inch of ice on EVERYTHING..... sidewalks, cars, tree limbs, wires...... unbelievable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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