Wild Turkey Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 now at 23.8 degrees...if that is accurate there is probably a flash freeze occurring out on the wet roadways right now as it continues to drizzle. I've always wondered about this. What kind of temps do you need in order to get roads to "flash freeze"? I would imagine it's obviously dependant on a number of factors, including treatment of the roads, sun angle, traffic intensity, etc., but is there a general rule to use? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Sparta, NW NJ 12PM Temp: 18 DP 15 Wind: NE @ 2 Pressure: 1025.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mweisenfeld Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Upton raised the snow amounts. But there is no snow in the forecast? Does that include sleet? Do they count sleet as snow? Please excuse the newbie questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I think the temp. sensor at LGA is messed up. Bayside down to 26F, Elmhurst down to 28F, Astoria down to 26.5F and LGA is still at 30F with no temp. drop at all? http://weather.weath...6286&stat=IS5WC http://weather.weath...6286&stat=BYSD1 Im wondering why they upped the snowfall amounts? Do you think we're done with the snow part of the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 LGA sensor is always too high. Winds shifted to north at LGA and no temp drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Sleet counts as snow, but it I doubt we're going to get 5" of sleet-- that would be a repeat of the St Pattys Day 2007 storm. Maybe they are including what already fell earlier-- but that wasnt much either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Snot Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 That map is stale - "As of Tue Feb 1 at 7am" I'm a bit puzzled by Upton here they are forecasting 1/4 inch of ice here and they canceled the WSW. I know ice storm warning is .5 inches but why didn't they leave up the WSW that they issued just 7 hours ago? Also they are still saying 4.9 inches of snow here in Manhattan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm a bit puzzled by Upton here they are forecasting 1/4 inch of ice here and they canceled the WSW. I know ice storm warning is .5 inches but why didn't they leave up the WSW that they issued just 7 hours ago? Also they are still saying 4.9 inches of snow here in Manhattan... Upton should've went with Ice Storm Warnings for NYC's 5 boroughs as well since the GFS and NAM both outputs between 0.25-0.50" of ice accretion for them; also, temperatures have been dropping way earlier than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 hmmm, temp up a degree to 29 here in midtown Manhattan in the last 1/2 hour it's nice that temps are dropping for people, but boy would I like to see more than a thin band of precip anywhere within 500 miles to the west of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 LGA sensor is always too high. Winds shifted to north at LGA and no temp drop. must be from a few jets starting up their engines or maybe some deicer spray hit the shelter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 But there is no snow in the forecast? Does that include sleet? Do they count sleet as snow? Please excuse the newbie questions. I'm pretty sure sleet counts as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yes, we're done with snow, aside from perhaps a few renegade flakes at the very beginning of round 2 tonight. Could see up to an inch of sleet in a quick burst, mainly on the North Shore. The snow accumulation map is old. The zone forecasts don't mention any new snow accumulation, or even snow at all. Im wondering why they upped the snowfall amounts? Do you think we're done with the snow part of the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 still at 33.5 on a NNE wind. I'm just north of Sunrise Hwy. I find it hard to believe it's 24F in Commack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm pretty sure sleet counts as snow. These are the liquid equivalent ratios as well as I remember them: 2:1 sleet 4:1 very wet snow 8:1 wet snow 10:1 to 12:1 typical to somewhat dry snow 15:1 very dry snow 20:1 champagne powder anything above 20:1 is very rare and the only time I remember seeing it in a big storm was back in Jan 2004 when we had 40:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Where did you hear this? i am up to 25 here, temp has steadly been rising the last 2 hours. How the temps doing now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 still at 33.5 on a NNE wind. I'm just north of Sunrise Hwy. I find it hard to believe it's 24F in Commack i live about one mile south of the sound in north commack, border of kings park. surrounding stations reporting similar numbers (25.3 northport, 22.4 cold spring harbor) so i doubt it is an error. You live in a classically warmer spot in our micro-climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 This will be one image to keep watching thru this evening as we await round two. Still a nice llight northerly fetch straight down the hudson valley all the way from far northern NY feeding into NNJ / NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 That map is stale - "As of Tue Feb 1 at 7am" It's odd though as for the snow map it says created at 11:01 AM 02/01/2011 and the Ice map is created at the same time...Odd stuff coming out of Upton today it looks like.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The temperature just started dropping here in Long Beach down to 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 24F may be a tad low, but there are multiple weather stations in NW Suffolk and NE Nassau that have seen a 4-5F drop in the past hour, down to 25-26F. East Northport: http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KNYEASTN8 Centerport: http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KXTINYCE2 Kings Park: http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KNYKINGS9 Woodbury: http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=MSWUIKWOD still at 33.5 on a NNE wind. I'm just north of Sunrise Hwy. I find it hard to believe it's 24F in Commack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 They probably didn't go with an ice storm warning for the city because confidence of reaching 0.5" is not as high in those places. They also avoided the warnings in the highly urbanized areas of NJ. What does that tell you? They feel that the heat generated from the urbanization combined with slighly warmer surface temps will be enough to avoid a severe ice storm. Not to mention, imagine the media frenzy if ice storm warnings were issued for NYC. Not to mention the implications if they didn't verify. An ice storm warning is a severe winter weather warning and should be taken very seriously. We all know it doesn't take much more than a freezing drizzle to cause major problems on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 i live about one mile south of the sound in north commack, border of kings park. surrounding stations reporting similar numbers (25.3 northport, 22.4 cold spring harbor) so i doubt it is an error. You live in a classically warmer spot in our micro-climate. I live in the same microclime and am usually several degrees warmer than you. I think that your sensor is off. We reached 33 here earlier, but the wind shifted to the north and it is now down to 28 as of 12:21PM. Have you tried the sensor calibration that I suggested? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 29 right now in Brooklyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I live in the same microclime and am usually several degrees warmer than you. I think that your sensor is off. We reached 33 here earlier, but the wind shifted to the north and it is now down to 28 as of 12:21PM. Have you tried the sensor calibration that I suggested? Not yet, but cold spring harbor reporting a temp of 22.4, 25.2 in northport, and i did have a high of around 32 degrees earlier today which was consistent at the time with other reports. I will try calibrating it in a little while with the ice water method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm going to run downstairs and enjoy that little bit of precip about to come through Manhattan, I'm presuming it's sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 They probably didn't go with an ice storm warning for the city because confidence of reaching 0.5" is not as high in those places. They also avoided the warnings in the highly urbanized areas of NJ. What does that tell you? They feel that the heat generated from the urbanization combined with slighly warmer surface temps will be enough to avoid a severe ice storm. Not to mention, imagine the media frenzy if ice storm warnings were issued for NYC. Not to mention the implications if they didn't verify. An ice storm warning is a severe winter weather warning and should be taken very seriously. We all know it doesn't take much more than a freezing drizzle to cause major problems on the roads. Of course not every part of NYC is high urbanized I mean SI/Eastern Queens/Parts of NW Bronx(Riverdale) and areas like Throgs Neck are certainly more like the burbs then Urban. I've been in the burb part of the city during a freezing rain event and it isn't pretty on the sidewalks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 But there is no snow in the forecast? Does that include sleet? Do they count sleet as snow? Please excuse the newbie questions. yes it does but sleet will not accumulate another 8" in the NORTHERN sections to give them the 11" forecasted.. or in southern sections to give 6" forecasted.. I wonder if the server problems are not letting them change this.. as they've known we weren't going to get this much snow since last night... i've been forecasted 2-5" for the CWA since last night excpet 4-8" in extreme north and west sections.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 i live about one mile south of the sound in north commack, border of kings park. surrounding stations reporting similar numbers (25.3 northport, 22.4 cold spring harbor) so i doubt it is an error. You live in a classically warmer spot in our micro-climate. He doesnt know north shore climo I bet places like Miller Place and Mt Sinai are even colder than you-- they are Long Island's cold spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 latest surface analysis still shows a 1033 mb high pressure anchored just north of VT. This high has not moved at all during the past 3 hours. In fact it appears to be elongating and merging with the high advancing from the west. Latest still shows pressure rises throughout the upper midwest and great lakes regions advancing ESE. In fact pressure has rissen by 3 mb over MN in the past two hours. This could all be a sign that the high pressure is going to be stronger than forecasted. What effects this will have are yet to be seen but you can clearly see the CAD signiature which is currently taking place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Not yet, but cold spring harbor reporting a temp of 22.4, 25.2 in northport, and i did have a high of around 32 degrees earlier today which was consistent at the time with other reports. I will try calibrating it in a little while with the ice water method. Our dots on the map are very close...I'm under the red dot that I drew on this map. It has definitely cooled quickly along the north shore. That cooling may make it down across the entire island over time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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